Regional Morning Notes
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Profit & Loss
Balance Sheet
Year to 31 Dec (Rmbm) 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F
Year to 31 Dec (Rmbm) 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F
Net turnover 87,773 79,573 88,
188bet 96,065 Fixed assets 60,254 79,870
98,005 109,809
EBITDA 18,460 19,233 21,070
24,425 Other LT assets 43,568 43,319
43,090 42,882
Deprec. & amort. 4,727 6,000 7,480
8,812 Cash/ST investment 20,879 23,043 12,661
9,821
EBIT 13,733 13,233 13,590
15,613 Other current assets 35,233 33,212
35,354 37,134
Total other non-operating income 191 100 200
100 Total assets 159,933 179,443 189,111
199,647
Associate contributions 295 367 387
407 ST debt 2,623 17,373
17,123 16,873
Net interest income/(expense) (177) (342) (783)
(1,091) Other current liabilities 26,156 23,749
26,298 28,496
Pre-tax profit 14,042 13,358 13,394
15,030 LT debt 26,411 26,411
26,411 26,411
Tax (3,383) (3,340) (3,348)
(3,757) Other LT liabilities 7,692 7,692
7,692 7,692
Minorities (857) (816)
(818) (918) Shareholders' equity 81,745 88,097
94,647 102,317
Net profit 9,802 9,203 9,227
10,354 Minority interest 14,220 15,036
15,853 16,771
Net profit (adj.) 9,802 9,203 9,227
10,354 Total liabilities & equity 159,933 179,443 189,111
199,647
Cash Flow
Key Metrics
Year to 31 Dec (Rmbm) 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F
Year to 31 Dec (%) 2011 2012F 2013F
2014F Operating 14,698 15,265 17,545
20,095 Profitability
Pre-tax profit 14,042 13,358 13,394
15,030 EBITDA margin 21.0 24.2
23.9 25.4
Tax (3,213) (3,385) (3,339)
(3,330) Pre-tax margin 16.0 16.8
15.2 15.6
Deprec. & amort. 4,727 6,000 7,480
8,812 Net margin 11.2 11.6
10.5 10.8
Associates (295) (367) (387)
(407) ROA 6.9
5.4 5.3 5.8
Working capital changes (486) (341) 398
(10) ROE 12.6 10.8
10.5 11.3
Non-cash items 0 0
0 0
Other operating cashflows (78) 0 0
0 Growth
Investing (35,178) (25,000) (25,000)
(20,000) Turnover 24.9 (9.3)
10.8 8.9
Capex (growth) 0 0
0 0 EBITDA 28.9
4.2 9.6 15.9
Capex (maintenance) (19,911) (25,000) (25,000) (20,000)
Pre-tax profit 27.7 (4.9)
0.3 12.2
Investments (6,077) 0 0
0 Net profit 31.3
(6.1) 0.3 12.2
Proceeds from sale of assets 44 0 0
0 Net profit (adj.) 31.3 (6.1)
0.3 12.2
Others (9,234) 0
0 0 EPS 31.3
(6.1) 0.3 12.2
Financing 18,443 11,899 (2,927)
(2,934)
Dividend payments (2,073) (2,851) (2,677)
(2,684) Leverage
Issue of shares 0 0
0 0 Debt to total capital 23.2
29.8 28.3 26.7
Proceeds from borrowings 21,671 15,000 0
0 Debt to equity 35.5 49.7
46.0 42.3
Loan repayment (1,395) (250) (250)
(250) Net debt/(cash) to equity 10.0 23.5
32.6 32.7
Others/interest paid 240 0 0
0 Interest cover (x) 104.5
56.2 26.9 22.4
Net cash inflow (outflow) (2,037) 2,164 (10,382) (2,84
Beginning cash & cash equivalent
22,922 20,879 23,043 12,66
Changes due to forex impact (7) 0 0
0
Ending cash & cash equivalent 20,879 23,043 12,661 9,821