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Posted By Topic: Fahrenheit's Betting Diary       - Views: 3163
Fahrenheit
09-Jun 2011 Thursday 8:32 AM (4708 days ago)               #1
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 51763
Liked By: 39337
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 58



    

Tipsters
Championship:
AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked:
#1352

 

This thread is created to keep track of my progress in online betting with Betinternet.

Bets are not restricted to soccer only. I also dabbled a bit on NBA, NHL, ML , horseracing  , 4D &Toto...

This message was edited by Fahrenheit on 09-Jun-2011 @ 8:39 AM




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
Member of Team:
Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)

Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
   Like     



Fahrenheit
09-Jun 2011 Thursday 8:33 AM (4708 days ago)            #2
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 51763
Liked By: 39337
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 58



    

Tipsters
Championship:
AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked:
#1352

 

7-8 June 2011.............

 

total betting action = 9231

total return action = 12737.50

today's profit = 3506.50

 

Betting Slip Date (GMT) Bet Type Status Total Stake Returns
12012595-5 8 Jun 2011 15:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 13.00 0.00
12012595-4 8 Jun 2011 15:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 9.25 0.00
12012595-3 8 Jun 2011 15:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 14.25 0.00
12012595-2 8 Jun 2011 15:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 13.00 0.00
12012595-1 8 Jun 2011 15:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 13.00 0.00
12012589-10 8 Jun 2011 15:05 Single (1 bet) Settled 12.50 0.00
12012589-9 8 Jun 2011 15:05 Single (1 bet) Settled 10.75 0.00
12012589-8 8 Jun 2011 15:05 Single (1 bet) Settled 9.25 0.00
12012589-7 8 Jun 2011 15:05 Single (1 bet) Settled 10.75 0.00
12012589-6 8 Jun 2011 15:05 Single (1 bet) Settled 28.00 28.00
12012589-5 8 Jun 2011 15:05 Single (1 bet) Settled 28.00 98.00
12012589-4 8 Jun 2011 15:05 Single (1 bet) Settled 14.75 0.00
12012589-3 8 Jun 2011 15:05 Single (1 bet) Settled 62.00 0.00
12012589-2 8 Jun 2011 15:05 Single (1 bet) Settled 31.00 0.00
12012589-1 8 Jun 2011 15:05 Single (1 bet) Settled 43.00 139.75
12012506-2 8 Jun 2011 14:16 Single (1 bet) Settled 493.25 1006.00
12012506-1 8 Jun 2011 14:16 Single (1 bet) Settled 477.00 0.00
12012178-1 8 Jun 2011 10:18 Single (1 bet) Settled 12.50 12.50
12012147-1 8 Jun 2011 10:04 Single (1 bet) Settled 325.00 417.75
12012144-5 8 Jun 2011 10:01 Single (1 bet) Settled 541.50 1066.75
12012144-4 8 Jun 2011 10:01 Single (1 bet) Settled 454.25 454.25
12012144-3 8 Jun 2011 10:01 Single (1 bet) Settled 507.25 253.50
12012144-2 8 Jun 2011 10:01 Single (1 bet) Settled 547.00 547.00
12012144-1 8 Jun 2011 10:01 Single (1 bet) Settled 450.00 976.50
12012101-10 8 Jun 2011 09:17 Single (1 bet) Settled 50.00 50.00
12012101-9 8 Jun 2011 09:17 Single (1 bet) Settled 27.50 0.00
12012101-8 8 Jun 2011 09:17 Single (1 bet) Settled 50.00 0.00
12012101-7 8 Jun 2011 09:17 Single (1 bet) Settled 50.00 0.00
12012101-6 8 Jun 2011 09:17 Single (1 bet) Settled 62.50 0.00
12012101-5 8 Jun 2011 09:17 Single (1 bet) Settled 50.00 0.00
12012101-4 8 Jun 2011 09:17 Single (1 bet) Settled 67.50 270.00
12012101-3 8 Jun 2011 09:17 Single (1 bet) Settled 50.00 0.00
12012101-2 8 Jun 2011 09:17 Single (1 bet) Settled 42.50 255.00
12012101-1 8 Jun 2011 09:17 Single (1 bet) Settled 50.00 0.00
12012096-10 8 Jun 2011 09:13 Single (1 bet) Settled 50.00 0.00
12012096-9 8 Jun 2011 09:13 Single (1 bet) Settled 72.50 235.50
12012096-8 8 Jun 2011 09:13 Single (1 bet) Settled 37.50 225.00
12012096-7 8 Jun 2011 09:13 Single (1 bet) Settled 85.00 0.00
12012096-6 8 Jun 2011 09:13 Single (1 bet) Settled 46.25 0.00
12012096-5 8 Jun 2011 09:13 Single (1 bet) Settled 21.50 0.00
12012096-4 8 Jun 2011 09:13 Single (1 bet) Settled 46.25 200.25
12012096-3 8 Jun 2011 09:13 Single (1 bet) Settled 46.50 325.50
12012096-2 8 Jun 2011 09:13 Single (1 bet) Settled 47.25 0.00
12012096-1 8 Jun 2011 09:13 Single (1 bet) Settled 47.25 0.00
12012095-10 8 Jun 2011 09:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 40.50 162.00
12012095-9 8 Jun 2011 09:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 40.25 0.00
12012095-8 8 Jun 2011 09:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 29.25 0.00
12012095-7 8 Jun 2011 09:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 35.75 0.00
12012095-6 8 Jun 2011 09:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 32.25 0.00
12012095-5 8 Jun 2011 09:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 49.50 160.75
12012095-4 8 Jun 2011 09:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 80.50 161.00
12012095-3 8 Jun 2011 09:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 58.50 0.00
12012095-2 8 Jun 2011 09:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 121.00 161.25
12012095-1 8 Jun 2011 09:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 12.50 0.00
12012088-10 8 Jun 2011 08:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 23.75 0.00
12012088-9 8 Jun 2011 08:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 97.00 177.75
12012088-8 8 Jun 2011 08:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 21.00 21.00
12012088-7 8 Jun 2011 08:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 39.50 0.00
12012088-6 8 Jun 2011 08:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 71.25 178.00
12012088-5 8 Jun 2011 08:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 44.50 178.00
12012088-4 8 Jun 2011 08:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 89.00 211.25
12012088-3 8 Jun 2011 08:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 54.75 0.00
12012088-2 8 Jun 2011 08:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 39.50 0.00
12012088-1 8 Jun 2011 08:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 19.75 0.00
12012066-1 8 Jun 2011 08:38 Single (1 bet) Settled 125.00 0.00
12012022-5 8 Jun 2011 03:35 Single (1 bet) Settled 266.50 506.25
12012022-4 8 Jun 2011 03:35 Single (1 bet) Settled 230.25 0.00
12012022-3 8 Jun 2011 03:35 Single (1 bet) Settled 253.25 506.50
12012022-2 8 Jun 2011 03:35 Single (1 bet) Settled 253.25 506.50
12012012-1 8 Jun 2011 03:29 Single (1 bet) Settled 482.50 482.50
12011999-3 8 Jun 2011 03:21 Single (1 bet) Settled 495.00 1004.75
12011999-2 8 Jun 2011 03:21 Single (1 bet) Settled 502.50 1005.00
12011999-1 8 Jun 2011 03:21 Single (1 bet) Settled 502.50 753.75

 

This message was edited by Fahrenheit on 10-Jun-2011 @ 7:13 AM




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
Member of Team:
Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)

Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
   Like     
wwx
09-Jun 2011 Thursday 9:18 AM (4708 days ago)            #3
Senior Member


Posts: 741
Liked By: 8
Joined: 18 Jun 08


Tipsters
Championship:
Player has
not started

 
Nice one Bro. Is it possible to state the total stake and return also ? Smile



   Like     
Fahrenheit
10-Jun 2011 Friday 7:10 AM (4707 days ago)            #4
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 51763
Liked By: 39337
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 58



    

Tipsters
Championship:
AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked:
#1352

 

9 Jun.........

 

total betting action = 11220.75

total return action =9787

today's loss = 1433.75 

 

Betting Slip Date (GMT) Bet Type Status Total Stake Returns
12014572-1 9 Jun 2011 18:32 Single (1 bet) Settled 250.00 285.50
12014570-1 9 Jun 2011 18:31 Single (1 bet) Settled 250.00 0.00
12014552-1 9 Jun 2011 18:16 Single (1 bet) Settled 250.00 265.50
12014551-1 9 Jun 2011 18:16 Single (1 bet) Settled 250.00 0.00
12014549-1 9 Jun 2011 18:15 Single (1 bet) Settled 231.25 0.00
12014544-1 9 Jun 2011 18:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 125.00 131.25
12014543-1 9 Jun 2011 18:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 325.00 422.50
12014517-2 9 Jun 2011 18:03 Single (1 bet) Settled 362.50 507.50
12014517-1 9 Jun 2011 18:03 Single (1 bet) Settled 262.50 275.50
12014406-3 9 Jun 2011 17:18 Single (1 bet) Settled 439.00 0.00
12014406-2 9 Jun 2011 17:18 Single (1 bet) Settled 521.00 1031.50
12014406-1 9 Jun 2011 17:18 Single (1 bet) Settled 540.00 0.00
12014393-1 9 Jun 2011 17:08 Single (1 bet) Settled 275.00 302.50
12014391-1 9 Jun 2011 17:07 Single (1 bet) Settled 252.00 273.00
12014387-2 9 Jun 2011 17:06 Single (1 bet) Settled 295.00 348.50
12014387-1 9 Jun 2011 17:06 Single (1 bet) Settled 312.50 390.50
12014188-1 9 Jun 2011 15:42 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12014160-5 9 Jun 2011 15:34 Single (1 bet) Settled 43.75 0.00
12014160-4 9 Jun 2011 15:34 Single (1 bet) Settled 23.75 0.00
12014160-3 9 Jun 2011 15:34 Single (1 bet) Settled 17.50 0.00
12014160-2 9 Jun 2011 15:34 Single (1 bet) Settled 20.00 0.00
12014160-1 9 Jun 2011 15:34 Single (1 bet) Settled 20.00 0.00
12014136-3 9 Jun 2011 15:28 Single (1 bet) Settled 34.50 207.00
12014136-2 9 Jun 2011 15:28 Single (1 bet) Settled 24.50 0.00
12014136-1 9 Jun 2011 15:28 Single (1 bet) Settled 16.00 0.00
12014043-3 9 Jun 2011 15:01 Single (1 bet) Settled 17.50 0.00
12014043-2 9 Jun 2011 15:01 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12014043-1 9 Jun 2011 15:01 Single (1 bet) Settled 32.50 0.00
12013961-7 9 Jun 2011 14:25 Single (1 bet) Settled 22.75 0.00
12013961-6 9 Jun 2011 14:25 Single (1 bet) Settled 37.00 0.00
12013961-5 9 Jun 2011 14:25 Single (1 bet) Settled 17.50 0.00
12013961-4 9 Jun 2011 14:25 Single (1 bet) Settled 21.25 0.00
12013961-3 9 Jun 2011 14:25 Single (1 bet) Settled 16.50 0.00
12013961-2 9 Jun 2011 14:25 Single (1 bet) Settled 42.50 0.00
12013961-1 9 Jun 2011 14:25 Single (1 bet) Settled 17.50 0.00
12013664-1 9 Jun 2011 11:53 Single (1 bet) Settled 295.00 348.50
12013375-1 9 Jun 2011 07:38 Single (1 bet) Settled 250.00 0.00
12013372-1 9 Jun 2011 07:31 Single (1 bet) Settled 125.00 231.25
12013339-1 9 Jun 2011 07:03 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 100.00
12013336-10 9 Jun 2011 07:02 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013336-9 9 Jun 2011 07:02 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013336-8 9 Jun 2011 07:02 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 50.00
12013336-7 9 Jun 2011 07:02 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013336-6 9 Jun 2011 07:02 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 45.00
12013336-5 9 Jun 2011 07:02 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013336-4 9 Jun 2011 07:02 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013336-3 9 Jun 2011 07:02 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 71.75
12013336-2 9 Jun 2011 07:02 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 100.00
12013336-1 9 Jun 2011 07:02 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013328-10 9 Jun 2011 07:00 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013328-9 9 Jun 2011 07:00 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013328-8 9 Jun 2011 07:00 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 25.00
12013328-7 9 Jun 2011 07:00 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013328-6 9 Jun 2011 07:00 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013328-5 9 Jun 2011 07:00 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013328-4 9 Jun 2011 07:00 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013328-3 9 Jun 2011 07:00 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013328-2 9 Jun 2011 07:00 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013328-1 9 Jun 2011 07:00 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 38.25
12013327-10 9 Jun 2011 06:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013327-9 9 Jun 2011 06:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 50.00
12013327-8 9 Jun 2011 06:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 108.25
12013327-7 9 Jun 2011 06:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013327-6 9 Jun 2011 06:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013327-5 9 Jun 2011 06:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013327-4 9 Jun 2011 06:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013327-3 9 Jun 2011 06:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013327-2 9 Jun 2011 06:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013327-1 9 Jun 2011 06:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013325-5 9 Jun 2011 06:47 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013325-4 9 Jun 2011 06:47 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013325-3 9 Jun 2011 06:47 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013325-2 9 Jun 2011 06:47 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 275.00
12013325-1 9 Jun 2011 06:47 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 137.50
12013324-10 9 Jun 2011 06:46 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 100.00
12013324-9 9 Jun 2011 06:46 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 25.00
12013324-8 9 Jun 2011 06:46 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013324-7 9 Jun 2011 06:46 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013324-6 9 Jun 2011 06:46 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013324-5 9 Jun 2011 06:46 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013324-4 9 Jun 2011 06:46 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 87.50
12013324-3 9 Jun 2011 06:46 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013324-2 9 Jun 2011 06:46 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013324-1 9 Jun 2011 06:46 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12013314-1 9 Jun 2011 06:27 Single (1 bet) Settled 125.00 231.25
12013304-1 9 Jun 2011 06:03 Single (1 bet) Settled 125.00 0.00
12013285-1 9 Jun 2011 05:00 Single (1 bet) Settled 150.00 0.00
12013284-1 9 Jun 2011 04:46 Single (1 bet) Settled 250.00 0.00
12013256-1 9 Jun 2011 02:39 Single (1 bet) Settled 285.00 325.50
12013203-8 9 Jun 2011 01:06 Single (1 bet) Settled 12.50 0.00
12013203-7 9 Jun 2011 01:06 Single (1 bet) Settled 12.50 0.00
12013203-6 9 Jun 2011 01:06 Single (1 bet) Settled 12.50 0.00
12013203-5 9 Jun 2011 01:06 Single (1 bet) Settled 12.50 12.50
12013203-4 9 Jun 2011 01:06 Single (1 bet) Settled 12.50 0.00
12013203-3 9 Jun 2011 01:06 Single (1 bet) Settled 12.50 0.00
12013203-2 9 Jun 2011 01:06 Single (1 bet) Settled 12.50 0.00
12013203-1 9 Jun 2011 01:06 Single (1 bet) Settled 12.50 0.00
12013198-1 9 Jun 2011 00:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 450.00 0.00
12013197-5 9 Jun 2011 00:51 Single (1 bet) Settled 510.00 0.00
12013197-4 9 Jun 2011 00:51 Single (1 bet) Settled 490.00 994.50
12013197-3 9 Jun 2011 00:51 Single (1 bet) Settled 502.50 994.75
12013197-2 9 Jun 2011 00:51 Single (1 bet) Settled 495.00 994.75
12013197-1 9 Jun 2011 00:51 Single (1 bet) Settled 502.50 0.00

 

This message was edited by Fahrenheit on 10-Jun-2011 @ 7:13 AM




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
Member of Team:
Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)

Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
   Like     
I.Am.Mad
10-Jun 2011 Friday 9:50 AM (4707 days ago)            #5
Senior Member


Posts: 618
Joined: 27 May 11


Tipsters
Championship:
Player has
not started

 
nice record kept.
Can i know what ur initial capital?



I feels that I am Mad, Do u feels so too?

   Like     
Fahrenheit
10-Jun 2011 Friday 1:00 PM (4707 days ago)            #6
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 51763
Liked By: 39337
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 58



    

Tipsters
Championship:
AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked:
#1352

 
quote originally posted by I.Am.Mad:

nice record kept.
Can i know what ur initial capital?

about the same as total betting action for the day...

 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
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(Est. Oct 2014)

Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
   Like     
Fahrenheit
11-Jun 2011 Saturday 6:34 AM (4706 days ago)            #7
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 51763
Liked By: 39337
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 58



    

Tipsters
Championship:
AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked:
#1352

 
10 June........

 

total betting action = 15300.00

total return action =10279.00

today's loss = 5021.00

 

Betting Slip Date (GMT) Bet Type Status Total Stake Returns
12015972-6 10 Jun 2011 14:58 Single (1 bet) Settled 502.50 0.00
12015972-5 10 Jun 2011 14:58 Single (1 bet) Settled 492.50 0.00
12015972-4 10 Jun 2011 14:58 Single (1 bet) Settled 500.00 250.00
12015972-3 10 Jun 2011 14:58 Single (1 bet) Settled 495.00 1019.50
12015972-2 10 Jun 2011 14:58 Single (1 bet) Settled 517.50 0.00
12015972-1 10 Jun 2011 14:58 Single (1 bet) Settled 492.50 1019.25
12015709-2 10 Jun 2011 13:04 Single (1 bet) Settled 300.00 500.00
12015691-4 10 Jun 2011 12:52 Single (1 bet) Settled 501.50 501.50
12015691-3 10 Jun 2011 12:52 Single (1 bet) Settled 522.50 987.50
12015691-2 10 Jun 2011 12:52 Single (1 bet) Settled 491.50 0.00
12015691-1 10 Jun 2011 12:52 Single (1 bet) Settled 484.50 0.00
12015675-3 10 Jun 2011 12:44 Single (1 bet) Settled 516.50 0.00
12015675-2 10 Jun 2011 12:44 Single (1 bet) Settled 482.25 0.00
12015675-1 10 Jun 2011 12:44 Single (1 bet) Settled 501.25 0.00
12015667-3 10 Jun 2011 12:40 Single (1 bet) Settled 490.50 1000.50
12015667-2 10 Jun 2011 12:40 Single (1 bet) Settled 490.75 0.00
12015667-1 10 Jun 2011 12:40 Single (1 bet) Settled 518.75 0.00
12014885-8 10 Jun 2011 00:44 Single (1 bet) Settled 495.00 0.00
12014885-7 10 Jun 2011 00:44 Single (1 bet) Settled 478.50 239.25
12014885-6 10 Jun 2011 00:44 Single (1 bet) Settled 505.00 0.00
12014885-5 10 Jun 2011 00:44 Single (1 bet) Settled 512.50 512.50
12014885-4 10 Jun 2011 00:44 Single (1 bet) Settled 528.50 1004.00
12014885-3 10 Jun 2011 00:44 Single (1 bet) Settled 523.25 0.00
12014885-2 10 Jun 2011 00:44 Single (1 bet) Settled 467.25 467.25
12014885-1 10 Jun 2011 00:44 Single (1 bet) Settled 490.00 490.00
12014849-6 10 Jun 2011 00:14 Single (1 bet) Settled 468.50 234.25
12014849-5 10 Jun 2011 00:14 Single (1 bet) Settled 491.00 0.00
12014849-4 10 Jun 2011 00:14 Single (1 bet) Settled 520.75 0.00
12014849-3 10 Jun 2011 00:14 Single (1 bet) Settled 523.25 777.00
12014849-2 10 Jun 2011 00:14 Single (1 bet) Settled 505.50 1031.00
12014849-1 10 Jun 2011 00:14 Single (1 bet) Settled 491.00 245.50

 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
Member of Team:
Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)

Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
   Like     
Fahrenheit
12-Jun 2011 Sunday 6:09 AM (4705 days ago)            #8
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 51763
Liked By: 39337
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 58



    

Tipsters
Championship:
AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked:
#1352

 

11 June........

 

total betting action = 14846.00

total return action =16215.50

today's profit = 1369.50

 

Betting Slip Date (GMT) Bet Type Status Total Stake Returns
12019099-1 11 Jun 2011 19:48 Single (1 bet) Settled 4.25 0.00
12018914-1 11 Jun 2011 18:07 Single (1 bet) Settled 487.75 0.00
12018491-6 11 Jun 2011 15:22 Single (1 bet) Settled 233.75 502.50
12018491-5 11 Jun 2011 15:22 Single (1 bet) Settled 245.00 245.00
12018491-4 11 Jun 2011 15:22 Single (1 bet) Settled 273.25 502.75
12018491-3 11 Jun 2011 15:22 Single (1 bet) Settled 241.50 502.25
12018491-2 11 Jun 2011 15:22 Single (1 bet) Settled 247.50 0.00
12018491-1 11 Jun 2011 15:22 Single (1 bet) Settled 259.00 502.25
12018429-6 11 Jun 2011 14:56 Single (1 bet) Settled 245.25 0.00
12018429-5 11 Jun 2011 14:56 Single (1 bet) Settled 268.00 490.25
12018429-4 11 Jun 2011 14:56 Single (1 bet) Settled 225.00 490.50
12018429-3 11 Jun 2011 14:56 Single (1 bet) Settled 216.00 108.00
12018429-2 11 Jun 2011 14:56 Single (1 bet) Settled 272.50 471.25
12018429-1 11 Jun 2011 14:56 Single (1 bet) Settled 263.75 477.25
12018272-2 11 Jun 2011 14:02 Single (1 bet) Settled 565.00 983.00
12018272-1 11 Jun 2011 14:02 Single (1 bet) Settled 435.00 217.50
12018219-7 11 Jun 2011 13:48 Single (1 bet) Settled 6.25 0.00
12018219-6 11 Jun 2011 13:48 Single (1 bet) Settled 9.75 0.00
12018219-5 11 Jun 2011 13:48 Single (1 bet) Settled 12.25 0.00
12018219-4 11 Jun 2011 13:48 Single (1 bet) Settled 5.00 0.00
12018219-3 11 Jun 2011 13:48 Single (1 bet) Settled 4.25 0.00
12018219-2 11 Jun 2011 13:48 Single (1 bet) Settled 6.75 0.00
12018219-1 11 Jun 2011 13:48 Single (1 bet) Settled 6.75 0.00
12018193-3 11 Jun 2011 13:42 Single (1 bet) Settled 2.50 0.00
12018193-2 11 Jun 2011 13:42 Single (1 bet) Settled 2.50 0.00
12018193-1 11 Jun 2011 13:42 Single (1 bet) Settled 2.50 0.00
12018164-9 11 Jun 2011 13:29 Single (1 bet) Settled 8.00 0.00
12018164-8 11 Jun 2011 13:29 Single (1 bet) Settled 7.00 0.00
12018164-7 11 Jun 2011 13:29 Single (1 bet) Settled 5.75 0.00
12018164-6 11 Jun 2011 13:29 Single (1 bet) Settled 3.00 0.00
12018164-5 11 Jun 2011 13:29 Single (1 bet) Settled 4.25 0.00
12018164-4 11 Jun 2011 13:29 Single (1 bet) Settled 3.25 0.00
12018164-3 11 Jun 2011 13:29 Single (1 bet) Settled 11.25 0.00
12018164-2 11 Jun 2011 13:29 Single (1 bet) Settled 5.25 0.00
12018164-1 11 Jun 2011 13:29 Single (1 bet) Settled 9.75 0.00
12018091-10 11 Jun 2011 13:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 7.00 0.00
12018091-9 11 Jun 2011 13:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 5.25 0.00
12018091-8 11 Jun 2011 13:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 5.75 0.00
12018091-7 11 Jun 2011 13:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 6.25 0.00
12018091-6 11 Jun 2011 13:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 7.25 54.25
12018091-5 11 Jun 2011 13:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 4.50 0.00
12018091-4 11 Jun 2011 13:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 6.25 0.00
12018091-3 11 Jun 2011 13:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 6.25 0.00
12018091-2 11 Jun 2011 13:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 5.75 0.00
12018091-1 11 Jun 2011 13:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 8.25 0.00
12018069-2 11 Jun 2011 13:00 Single (1 bet) Settled 1.25 0.00
12018069-1 11 Jun 2011 13:00 Single (1 bet) Settled 1.25 0.00
12018058-10 11 Jun 2011 12:55 Single (1 bet) Settled 7.75 7.75
12018058-9 11 Jun 2011 12:55 Single (1 bet) Settled 11.50 0.00
12018058-8 11 Jun 2011 12:55 Single (1 bet) Settled 3.25 0.00
12018058-7 11 Jun 2011 12:55 Single (1 bet) Settled 3.75 33.75
12018058-6 11 Jun 2011 12:55 Single (1 bet) Settled 5.50 0.00
12018058-5 11 Jun 2011 12:55 Single (1 bet) Settled 11.50 0.00
12018058-4 11 Jun 2011 12:55 Single (1 bet) Settled 5.25 0.00
12018058-3 11 Jun 2011 12:55 Single (1 bet) Settled 3.75 0.00
12018058-2 11 Jun 2011 12:55 Single (1 bet) Settled 3.75 0.00
12018058-1 11 Jun 2011 12:55 Single (1 bet) Settled 6.50 0.00
12018026-10 11 Jun 2011 12:44 Single (1 bet) Settled 3.00 0.00
12018026-9 11 Jun 2011 12:44 Single (1 bet) Settled 7.00 0.00
12018026-8 11 Jun 2011 12:44 Single (1 bet) Settled 7.25 0.00
12018026-7 11 Jun 2011 12:44 Single (1 bet) Settled 7.00 0.00
12018026-6 11 Jun 2011 12:44 Single (1 bet) Settled 6.50 0.00
12018026-5 11 Jun 2011 12:44 Single (1 bet) Settled 4.25 55.25
12018026-4 11 Jun 2011 12:44 Single (1 bet) Settled 5.50 0.00
12018026-3 11 Jun 2011 12:44 Single (1 bet) Settled 11.00 66.00
12018026-2 11 Jun 2011 12:44 Single (1 bet) Settled 3.75 0.00
12018026-1 11 Jun 2011 12:44 Single (1 bet) Settled 7.25 0.00
12017993-1 11 Jun 2011 12:31 Single (1 bet) Settled 2.50 0.00
12017991-10 11 Jun 2011 12:30 Single (1 bet) Settled 5.00 0.00
12017991-9 11 Jun 2011 12:30 Single (1 bet) Settled 9.75 68.25
12017991-8 11 Jun 2011 12:30 Single (1 bet) Settled 3.50 0.00
12017991-7 11 Jun 2011 12:30 Single (1 bet) Settled 4.50 0.00
12017991-6 11 Jun 2011 12:30 Single (1 bet) Settled 6.50 0.00
12017991-5 11 Jun 2011 12:30 Single (1 bet) Settled 6.50 0.00
12017991-4 11 Jun 2011 12:30 Single (1 bet) Settled 8.50 0.00
12017991-3 11 Jun 2011 12:30 Single (1 bet) Settled 5.25 0.00
12017991-2 11 Jun 2011 12:30 Single (1 bet) Settled 5.75 0.00
12017991-1 11 Jun 2011 12:30 Single (1 bet) Settled 7.25 0.00
12016937-3 11 Jun 2011 03:20 Single (1 bet) Settled 500.25 945.25
12016937-2 11 Jun 2011 03:20 Single (1 bet) Settled 480.00 240.00
12016937-1 11 Jun 2011 03:20 Single (1 bet) Settled 519.75 945.75
12016766-1 11 Jun 2011 01:22 Single (1 bet) Settled 500.00 925.00
12016746-5 11 Jun 2011 01:10 Single (1 bet) Settled 477.50 0.00
12016746-4 11 Jun 2011 01:10 Single (1 bet) Settled 475.00 0.00
12016746-3 11 Jun 2011 01:10 Single (1 bet) Settled 505.50 0.00
12016746-2 11 Jun 2011 01:10 Single (1 bet) Settled 529.00 1026.25
12016746-1 11 Jun 2011 01:10 Single (1 bet) Settled 513.00 1026.00
12016711-4 11 Jun 2011 00:29 Single (1 bet) Settled 506.25 506.25
12016711-3 11 Jun 2011 00:29 Single (1 bet) Settled 445.25 222.50
12016711-2 11 Jun 2011 00:29 Single (1 bet) Settled 576.00 921.50
12016673-7 10 Jun 2011 23:48 Single (1 bet) Settled 520.00 260.00
12016673-6 10 Jun 2011 23:48 Single (1 bet) Settled 543.00 977.25
12016673-5 10 Jun 2011 23:48 Single (1 bet) Settled 506.50 742.00
12016673-4 10 Jun 2011 23:48 Single (1 bet) Settled 506.50 0.00
12016673-3 10 Jun 2011 23:48 Single (1 bet) Settled 484.00 977.50
12016673-2 10 Jun 2011 23:48 Single (1 bet) Settled 472.25 0.00
12016673-1 10 Jun 2011 23:48 Single (1 bet) Settled 467.75 722.50
12016646-1 10 Jun 2011 23:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 465.00 0.00

 

This message was edited by Fahrenheit on 12-Jun-2011 @ 6:11 AM




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
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laiszewea 12-Jun 2011 Sunday 7:26 PM (4704 days ago)            #9
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Fahrenheit
12-Jun 2011 Sunday 10:35 PM (4704 days ago)            #10
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 51763
Liked By: 39337
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 58



    

Tipsters
Championship:
AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked:
#1352

 
 

12 June 2011.............

total betting action = 12868.75

total return action = 13534.50

today's profit = 665.75

 

Betting Slip Date (GMT) Bet Type Status Total Stake Returns
12019997-2 12 Jun 2011 10:36 Single (1 bet) Settled 430.75 732.25
12019997-1 12 Jun 2011 10:36 Single (1 bet) Settled 389.50 0.00
12019855-1 12 Jun 2011 09:26 Single (1 bet) Settled 438.50 679.50
12019099-1 11 Jun 2011 19:48 Single (1 bet) Settled 4.25 0.00
12019049-1 11 Jun 2011 19:04 Single (1 bet) Settled 365.25 620.75
12019013-1 11 Jun 2011 18:49 Single (1 bet) Settled 400.00 558.00
12018914-1 11 Jun 2011 18:07 Single (1 bet) Settled 487.75 0.00
12018755-9 11 Jun 2011 17:00 Single (1 bet) Settled 488.75 962.75
12018755-8 11 Jun 2011 17:00 Single (1 bet) Settled 443.50 0.00
12018755-7 11 Jun 2011 17:00 Single (1 bet) Settled 463.25 949.50
12018755-6 11 Jun 2011 17:00 Single (1 bet) Settled 445.50 0.00
12018755-5 11 Jun 2011 17:00 Single (1 bet) Settled 478.50 976.00
12018755-4 11 Jun 2011 17:00 Single (1 bet) Settled 478.50 0.00
12018755-3 11 Jun 2011 17:00 Single (1 bet) Settled 510.75 0.00
12018755-2 11 Jun 2011 17:00 Single (1 bet) Settled 450.00 0.00
12018755-1 11 Jun 2011 17:00 Single (1 bet) Settled 468.50 0.00
12018714-1 11 Jun 2011 16:46 Single (1 bet) Settled 375.50 0.00
12018699-3 11 Jun 2011 16:43 Single (1 bet) Settled 509.75 917.50
12018699-2 11 Jun 2011 16:43 Single (1 bet) Settled 509.75 917.50
12018699-1 11 Jun 2011 16:43 Single (1 bet) Settled 480.50 917.75
12018544-4 11 Jun 2011 15:49 Single (1 bet) Settled 237.50 529.50
12018544-3 11 Jun 2011 15:49 Single (1 bet) Settled 240.75 481.50
12018544-2 11 Jun 2011 15:49 Single (1 bet) Settled 233.75 0.00
12018544-1 11 Jun 2011 15:49 Single (1 bet) Settled 288.00 0.00
12018491-6 11 Jun 2011 15:22 Single (1 bet) Settled 233.75 502.50
12018491-5 11 Jun 2011 15:22 Single (1 bet) Settled 245.00 245.00
12018491-4 11 Jun 2011 15:22 Single (1 bet) Settled 273.25 502.75
12018491-3 11 Jun 2011 15:22 Single (1 bet) Settled 241.50 502.25
12018491-2 11 Jun 2011 15:22 Single (1 bet) Settled 247.50 0.00
12018491-1 11 Jun 2011 15:22 Single (1 bet) Settled 259.00 502.25
12018429-7 11 Jun 2011 14:56 Single (1 bet) Settled 259.50 0.00
12018429-6 11 Jun 2011 14:56 Single (1 bet) Settled 245.25 0.00
12018429-5 11 Jun 2011 14:56 Single (1 bet) Settled 268.00 490.25
12018429-4 11 Jun 2011 14:56 Single (1 bet) Settled 225.00 490.50
12018429-3 11 Jun 2011 14:56 Single (1 bet) Settled 216.00 108.00
12018429-2 11 Jun 2011 14:56 Single (1 bet) Settled 272.50 471.25
12018429-1 11 Jun 2011 14:56 Single (1 bet) Settled 263.75 477.25

 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
Member of Team:
Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)

Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
   Like     
Fahrenheit
14-Jun 2011 Tuesday 11:35 AM (4703 days ago)            #11
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 51763
Liked By: 39337
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 58



    

Tipsters
Championship:
AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked:
#1352

 
 

13 June........

 

total betting action = 5612.75

total return action =5670.25

today's profit = 57.50

 

Betting Slip Date (GMT) Bet Type Status Total Stake Returns
12021647-1 13 Jun 2011 08:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 250.00 462.50
12021580-7 13 Jun 2011 05:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 235.75 459.50
12021580-6 13 Jun 2011 05:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 229.75 0.00
12021580-5 13 Jun 2011 05:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 238.25 459.75
12021580-4 13 Jun 2011 05:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 228.75 0.00
12021580-3 13 Jun 2011 05:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 222.00 0.00
12021580-2 13 Jun 2011 05:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 239.50 0.00
12021580-1 13 Jun 2011 05:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 231.00 0.00
12021578-10 13 Jun 2011 04:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 256.50 0.00
12021578-9 13 Jun 2011 04:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 255.25 500.25
12021578-8 13 Jun 2011 04:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 246.50 500.25
12021578-7 13 Jun 2011 04:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 244.00 500.00
12021578-6 13 Jun 2011 04:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 251.25 0.00
12021578-5 13 Jun 2011 04:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 242.75 0.00
12021578-4 13 Jun 2011 04:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 244.00 500.00
12021578-3 13 Jun 2011 04:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 246.50 373.25
12021578-2 13 Jun 2011 04:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 242.75 500.00
12021578-1 13 Jun 2011 04:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 270.50 385.25
12021574-2 13 Jun 2011 04:42 Single (1 bet) Settled 125.00 0.00
12021574-1 13 Jun 2011 04:42 Single (1 bet) Settled 112.75 0.00
12021569-7 13 Jun 2011 04:31 Single (1 bet) Settled 122.50 0.00
12021569-6 13 Jun 2011 04:31 Single (1 bet) Settled 122.50 257.25
12021569-5 13 Jun 2011 04:31 Single (1 bet) Settled 155.00 258.25
12021569-4 13 Jun 2011 04:31 Single (1 bet) Settled 171.25 256.75
12021569-3 13 Jun 2011 04:31 Single (1 bet) Settled 122.50 0.00
12021569-2 13 Jun 2011 04:31 Single (1 bet) Settled 122.50 257.25
12021569-1 13 Jun 2011 04:31 Single (1 bet) Settled 183.75 0.00

 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
Member of Team:
Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)

Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
   Like     
Fahrenheit
15-Jun 2011 Wednesday 4:22 AM (4702 days ago)            #12
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 51763
Liked By: 39337
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 58



    

Tipsters
Championship:
AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked:
#1352

 
 

14 June 2011.............

 

total betting action = 6200

total return action = 9174

today's profit = 2974

 

 

Betting Slip Date (GMT) Bet Type Status Total Stake Returns
12023324-1 14 Jun 2011 11:08 Single (1 bet) Settled 250.00 487.50
12023024-2 14 Jun 2011 04:59 Single (1 bet) Settled 550.00 1039.50
12023020-5 14 Jun 2011 04:38 Single (1 bet) Settled 587.50 1192.50
12023020-4 14 Jun 2011 04:38 Single (1 bet) Settled 579.50 0.00
12023020-3 14 Jun 2011 04:38 Single (1 bet) Settled 560.50 1193.50
12023020-2 14 Jun 2011 04:38 Single (1 bet) Settled 666.50 0.00
12023020-1 14 Jun 2011 04:38 Single (1 bet) Settled 606.00 1193.50
12023015-4 14 Jun 2011 04:19 Single (1 bet) Settled 562.00 1168.50
12023015-3 14 Jun 2011 04:19 Single (1 bet) Settled 664.00 1168.50
12023015-2 14 Jun 2011 04:19 Single (1 bet) Settled 612.00 1168.50
12023015-1 14 Jun 2011 04:19 Single (1 bet) Settled 562.00 562.00

 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
Member of Team:
Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)

Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
   Like     
Fahrenheit
16-Jun 2011 Thursday 12:49 PM (4701 days ago)            #13
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 51763
Liked By: 39337
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 58



    

Tipsters
Championship:
AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked:
#1352

 
 

15 June 2011.............

 

total betting action = 10107.25

total return action = 10690.50

today's profit = 583.25

 

Betting Slip Date (GMT) Bet Type Status Total Stake Returns
12025660-3 15 Jun 2011 13:45 Single (1 bet) Settled 355.50 355.50
12025660-2 15 Jun 2011 13:45 Single (1 bet) Settled 368.50 700.00
12025607-1 15 Jun 2011 13:19 Single (1 bet) Settled 125.00 252.50
12025586-4 15 Jun 2011 13:11 Treble (1 bet) Settled 12.50 15.50
12025586-3 15 Jun 2011 13:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 377.75 661.00
12025586-2 15 Jun 2011 13:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 359.25 510.00
12025586-1 15 Jun 2011 13:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 375.50 187.75
12025552-7 15 Jun 2011 12:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 111.25 500.50
12025552-6 15 Jun 2011 12:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 44.50 0.00
12025552-5 15 Jun 2011 12:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 127.25 0.00
12025552-4 15 Jun 2011 12:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 34.25 0.00
12025552-3 15 Jun 2011 12:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 34.25 0.00
12025552-2 15 Jun 2011 12:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 81.00 0.00
12025552-1 15 Jun 2011 12:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 89.00 0.00
12025110-5 15 Jun 2011 10:34 Single (1 bet) Settled 166.00 0.00
12025110-4 15 Jun 2011 10:34 Single (1 bet) Settled 105.00 0.00
12025110-3 15 Jun 2011 10:34 Single (1 bet) Settled 134.50 248.75
12025110-2 15 Jun 2011 10:34 Single (1 bet) Settled 124.50 249.00
12025110-1 15 Jun 2011 10:34 Single (1 bet) Settled 95.00 0.00
12025019-1 15 Jun 2011 09:48 Single (1 bet) Settled 125.00 231.25
12025011-1 15 Jun 2011 09:45 Single (1 bet) Settled 193.75 0.00
12024991-2 15 Jun 2011 09:37 3 from 4 (4 bets) Settled 25.00 56.00
12024991-1 15 Jun 2011 09:37 2 from 4 (6 bets) Settled 37.50 81.00
12024986-1 15 Jun 2011 09:35 2 from 3 (3 bets) Settled 18.75 23.75
12024816-2 15 Jun 2011 07:14 3 from 4 (4 bets) Settled 60.00 303.00
12024816-1 15 Jun 2011 07:14 2 from 4 (6 bets) Settled 90.00 266.25
12024806-1 15 Jun 2011 07:00 2 from 3 (3 bets) Settled 37.50 0.00
12024805-1 15 Jun 2011 06:55 2 from 3 (3 bets) Settled 37.50 0.00
12024754-8 15 Jun 2011 05:42 Single (1 bet) Settled 358.50 720.50
12024754-7 15 Jun 2011 05:42 Single (1 bet) Settled 383.50 720.75
12024754-6 15 Jun 2011 05:42 Single (1 bet) Settled 360.50 180.25
12024754-5 15 Jun 2011 05:42 Single (1 bet) Settled 429.00 574.75
12024754-4 15 Jun 2011 05:42 Single (1 bet) Settled 358.75 179.25
12024754-3 15 Jun 2011 05:42 Single (1 bet) Settled 360.50 0.00
12024754-2 15 Jun 2011 05:42 Single (1 bet) Settled 367.75 720.75
12024754-1 15 Jun 2011 05:42 Single (1 bet) Settled 381.50 721.00
12024731-7 15 Jun 2011 05:18 Single (1 bet) Settled 245.25 0.00
12024731-6 15 Jun 2011 05:18 Single (1 bet) Settled 290.75 0.00
12024731-5 15 Jun 2011 05:18 Single (1 bet) Settled 257.50 128.75
12024731-4 15 Jun 2011 05:18 Single (1 bet) Settled 274.00 0.00
12024731-3 15 Jun 2011 05:18 Single (1 bet) Settled 297.50 407.50
12024731-2 15 Jun 2011 05:18 Single (1 bet) Settled 253.75 126.75
12024731-1 15 Jun 2011 05:18 Single (1 bet) Settled 256.25 128.00
12024726-5 15 Jun 2011 05:13 Single (1 bet) Settled 127.75 0.00
12024726-4 15 Jun 2011 05:13 Single (1 bet) Settled 127.50 0.00
12024726-3 15 Jun 2011 05:13 Single (1 bet) Settled 127.50 0.00
12024726-2 15 Jun 2011 05:13 Single (1 bet) Settled 127.50 243.50
12024726-1 15 Jun 2011 05:13 Single (1 bet) Settled 130.25 237.00
12024720-1 15 Jun 2011 05:09 Single (1 bet) Settled 125.00 293.75
12024716-2 15 Jun 2011 05:04 Single (1 bet) Settled 125.00 225.00
12024716-1 15 Jun 2011 05:04 Single (1 bet) Settled 125.00 0.00
12024711-2 15 Jun 2011 04:58 Single (1 bet) Settled 225.00 441.25
12024711-1 15 Jun 2011 04:58 Single (1 bet) Settled 246.25 0.00

 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
Member of Team:
Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)

Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
   Like     
Fahrenheit
17-Jun 2011 Friday 3:08 AM (4700 days ago)            #14
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 51763
Liked By: 39337
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 58



    

Tipsters
Championship:
AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked:
#1352

 
 

16 June 2011.............

 

total betting action = 6882.50

total return action = 9396

today's profit = 2513.50

 

Betting Slip Date (GMT) Bet Type Status Total Stake Returns
12028007-1 16 Jun 2011 18:01 Accumulator 8 (1 bet) Settled 15.00 0.00
12027994-1 16 Jun 2011 17:53 Treble (1 bet) Settled 12.50 15.75
12027401-1 16 Jun 2011 13:20 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1500.00 2714.75
12027190-1 16 Jun 2011 11:44 Single (1 bet) Settled 250.00 250.00
12027123-2 16 Jun 2011 11:17 Single Each Way (2 bets) Settled 125.00 131.25
12027123-1 16 Jun 2011 11:17 Single Each Way (2 bets) Settled 125.00 0.00
12027119-1 16 Jun 2011 11:14 Single Each Way (2 bets) Settled 125.00 0.00
12027108-1 16 Jun 2011 11:07 Single Each Way (2 bets) Settled 125.00 101.50
12027101-1 16 Jun 2011 11:03 Single Each Way (2 bets) Settled 125.00 425.00
12027084-1 16 Jun 2011 10:58 Single Each Way (2 bets) Settled 125.00 0.00
12027083-1 16 Jun 2011 10:56 Single Each Way (2 bets) Settled 125.00 0.00
12027082-1 16 Jun 2011 10:54 Single Each Way (2 bets) Settled 125.00 0.00
12027076-1 16 Jun 2011 10:48 Single Each Way (2 bets) Settled 125.00 156.25
12027074-1 16 Jun 2011 10:47 Single Each Way (2 bets) Settled 125.00 0.00
12027069-1 16 Jun 2011 10:45 Single Each Way (2 bets) Settled 125.00 0.00
12027068-1 16 Jun 2011 10:44 Single (1 bet) Settled 125.00 312.50
12027056-1 16 Jun 2011 10:39 Single Each Way (2 bets) Settled 125.00 0.00
12027054-1 16 Jun 2011 10:37 Single Each Way (2 bets) Settled 125.00 0.00
12025704-9 15 Jun 2011 13:59 Single (1 bet) Settled 102.75 155.00
12025704-8 15 Jun 2011 13:59 Single (1 bet) Settled 120.00 207.50
12025704-7 15 Jun 2011 13:59 Single (1 bet) Settled 101.75 0.00
12025704-6 15 Jun 2011 13:59 Single (1 bet) Settled 99.25 0.00
12025704-5 15 Jun 2011 13:59 Single (1 bet) Settled 104.25 104.25
12025704-4 15 Jun 2011 13:59 Single (1 bet) Settled 105.75 0.00
12025704-3 15 Jun 2011 13:59 Single (1 bet) Settled 99.75 208.25
12025704-2 15 Jun 2011 13:59 Single (1 bet) Settled 97.00 205.50
12025704-1 15 Jun 2011 13:59 Single (1 bet) Settled 98.75 207.25
12025660-10 15 Jun 2011 13:45 Single (1 bet) Settled 336.75 700.25
12025660-9 15 Jun 2011 13:45 Single (1 bet) Settled 362.75 0.00
12025660-8 15 Jun 2011 13:45 Single (1 bet) Settled 378.50 700.00
12025660-7 15 Jun 2011 13:45 Single (1 bet) Settled 341.50 700.00
12025660-6 15 Jun 2011 13:45 Single (1 bet) Settled 343.25 700.00
12025660-5 15 Jun 2011 13:45 Single (1 bet) Settled 350.25 700.50
12025660-4 15 Jun 2011 13:45 Single (1 bet) Settled 312.75 700.50

 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
Member of Team:
Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)

Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
   Like     
wwx
17-Jun 2011 Friday 1:06 PM (4700 days ago)            #15
Senior Member


Posts: 741
Liked By: 8
Joined: 18 Jun 08


Tipsters
Championship:
Player has
not started

 
Nice, Bro Farenheit. Do you still need to work with such a large profits ?? Haha Smile



   Like     
Fahrenheit
17-Jun 2011 Friday 5:22 PM (4699 days ago)            #16
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 51763
Liked By: 39337
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 58



    

Tipsters
Championship:
AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked:
#1352

 
quote originally posted by wwx:

Nice, Bro Farenheit. Do you still need to work with such a large profits ?? Haha

huh? hard to say leh... u never know when a losing streak will strike...

 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
Member of Team:
Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)

Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
   Like     
Fahrenheit
18-Jun 2011 Saturday 7:56 AM (4699 days ago)            #17
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 51763
Liked By: 39337
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 58



    

Tipsters
Championship:
AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked:
#1352

 
 

17June 2011.............

 

total betting action = 942.50

total return action = 920.50

today's loss = 22.00

 

Betting Slip Date (GMT) Bet Type Status Total Stake Returns
12029222-5 17 Jun 2011 17:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 61.00 0.00
12029222-4 17 Jun 2011 17:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 61.00 111.50
12029222-3 17 Jun 2011 17:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 61.00 0.00
12029222-2 17 Jun 2011 17:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 61.00 61.00
12029222-1 17 Jun 2011 17:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 61.00 84.25
12028918-6 17 Jun 2011 14:03 Single (1 bet) Settled 75.00 169.50
12028918-5 17 Jun 2011 14:03 Single (1 bet) Settled 101.25 189.25
12028918-4 17 Jun 2011 14:03 Single (1 bet) Settled 75.00 169.50
12028918-3 17 Jun 2011 14:03 Single (1 bet) Settled 85.00 85.00
12028918-2 17 Jun 2011 14:03 Single (1 bet) Settled 101.25 50.50
12028918-1 17 Jun 2011 14:03 Single (1 bet) Settled 75.00 0.00
12028202-1 17 Jun 2011 03:58 Single Each Way (2 bets) Settled 125.00 0.00

 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
Member of Team:
Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)

Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
   Like     
laiszewea 18-Jun 2011 Saturday 5:46 PM (4698 days ago)            #18
Administrator

Quad-Centennial Member

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Smile Smile




Life is full of surprises.

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Fahrenheit
19-Jun 2011 Sunday 4:57 AM (4698 days ago)            #19
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Tipsters
Championship:
AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked:
#1352

 
 

18 June 2011.............

 

total betting action = 32183.75

total return action = 33527.75

today's profit = 1344.00

 

Betting Slip Date (GMT) Bet Type Status Total Stake Returns
12031620-5 18 Jun 2011 18:06 2 from 4 (6 bets) Settled 187.50 359.75
12031620-4 18 Jun 2011 18:06 Single (1 bet) Settled 100.00 183.00
12031620-3 18 Jun 2011 18:06 Single (1 bet) Settled 100.00 0.00
12031620-2 18 Jun 2011 18:06 Single (1 bet) Settled 93.25 206.00
12031620-1 18 Jun 2011 18:06 Single (1 bet) Settled 100.00 185.00
12031565-2 18 Jun 2011 17:39 Single (1 bet) Settled 277.75 547.00
12031565-1 18 Jun 2011 17:39 Single (1 bet) Settled 277.75 277.75
12031440-2 18 Jun 2011 16:47 Single (1 bet) Settled 210.00 0.00
12031440-1 18 Jun 2011 16:47 Single (1 bet) Settled 209.50 0.00
12031407-1 18 Jun 2011 16:36 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 3750.00 2248.00
12031316-1 18 Jun 2011 15:59 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 3750.00 4493.50
12031207-10 18 Jun 2011 15:18 Single (1 bet) Settled 282.00 0.00
12031207-9 18 Jun 2011 15:18 Single (1 bet) Settled 282.00 0.00
12031207-8 18 Jun 2011 15:18 Single (1 bet) Settled 282.00 572.25
12031207-7 18 Jun 2011 15:18 Single (1 bet) Settled 282.00 0.00
12031207-6 18 Jun 2011 15:18 Single (1 bet) Settled 282.00 592.00
12031207-5 18 Jun 2011 15:18 Single (1 bet) Settled 282.00 527.25
12031207-4 18 Jun 2011 15:18 Single (1 bet) Settled 282.00 463.75
12031207-3 18 Jun 2011 15:18 Single (1 bet) Settled 282.00 0.00
12031207-2 18 Jun 2011 15:18 Single (1 bet) Settled 282.00 580.75
12031207-1 18 Jun 2011 15:18 Single (1 bet) Settled 282.00 555.50
12030767-1 18 Jun 2011 13:27 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 2490.00 2923.00
12030725-1 18 Jun 2011 13:13 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 3750.00 4977.75
12030669-2 18 Jun 2011 12:55 Single (1 bet) Settled 125.00 0.00
12030669-1 18 Jun 2011 12:55 Single (1 bet) Settled 119.00 0.00
12030665-1 18 Jun 2011 12:53 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 3750.00 1042.25
12029972-1 18 Jun 2011 07:56 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 2730.00 1767.75
12029948-1 18 Jun 2011 07:32 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1500.00 103.75
12029842-1 18 Jun 2011 05:24 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1500.00 8741.00
12029829-1 18 Jun 2011 05:08 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1500.00 51.75
12029818-1 18 Jun 2011 04:44 Single (1 bet) Settled 132.25 0.00
12029688-10 18 Jun 2011 00:27 Single (1 bet) Settled 270.75 0.00
12029688-9 18 Jun 2011 00:27 Single (1 bet) Settled 270.75 135.25
12029688-8 18 Jun 2011 00:27 Single (1 bet) Settled 271.25 0.00
12029688-7 18 Jun 2011 00:27 Single (1 bet) Settled 271.25 0.00
12029688-6 18 Jun 2011 00:27 Single (1 bet) Settled 271.25 135.50
12029688-5 18 Jun 2011 00:27 Single (1 bet) Settled 271.25 0.00
12029688-4 18 Jun 2011 00:27 Single (1 bet) Settled 271.50 461.50
12029688-3 18 Jun 2011 00:27 Single (1 bet) Settled 271.25 480.00
12029688-2 18 Jun 2011 00:27 Single (1 bet) Settled 271.25 539.75
12029688-1 18 Jun 2011 00:27 Single (1 bet) Settled 271.25 377.00

 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
Member of Team:
Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)

Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
   Like     
Fahrenheit
20-Jun 2011 Monday 4:35 AM (4697 days ago)            #20
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 51763
Liked By: 39337
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 58



    

Tipsters
Championship:
AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked:
#1352

 
 

19 June 2011.............

 

total betting action = 33730.90

total return action = 35514.60

today's profit = 1783.70

 

Betting Slip Date (GMT) Bet Type Status Total Stake Returns
12033774-1 19 Jun 2011 17:36 Single (1 bet) Settled 4.50 5.60
12033673-8 19 Jun 2011 16:43 Single (1 bet) Settled 88.00 88.00
12033673-7 19 Jun 2011 16:43 Single (1 bet) Settled 88.00 157.50
12033673-6 19 Jun 2011 16:43 Single (1 bet) Settled 88.00 168.90
12033673-5 19 Jun 2011 16:43 Single (1 bet) Settled 88.00 153.10
12033673-4 19 Jun 2011 16:43 Single (1 bet) Settled 88.00 117.90
12033673-3 19 Jun 2011 16:43 Single (1 bet) Settled 88.00 168.90
12033673-2 19 Jun 2011 16:43 Single (1 bet) Settled 88.00 153.10
12033673-1 19 Jun 2011 16:43 Single (1 bet) Settled 84.00 0.00
12033648-3 19 Jun 2011 16:30 Single (1 bet) Settled 150.00 294.00
12033631-10 19 Jun 2011 16:23 Single (1 bet) Settled 150.00 0.00
12033631-9 19 Jun 2011 16:23 Single (1 bet) Settled 150.00 0.00
12033631-8 19 Jun 2011 16:23 Single (1 bet) Settled 150.00 150.00
12033631-7 19 Jun 2011 16:23 Single (1 bet) Settled 150.00 201.00
12033631-6 19 Jun 2011 16:23 Single (1 bet) Settled 150.00 291.00
12033631-5 19 Jun 2011 16:23 Single (1 bet) Settled 150.00 0.00
12033631-4 19 Jun 2011 16:23 Single (1 bet) Settled 150.00 295.50
12033631-3 19 Jun 2011 16:23 Single (1 bet) Settled 150.00 261.00
12033631-2 19 Jun 2011 16:23 Single (1 bet) Settled 150.00 0.00
12033631-1 19 Jun 2011 16:23 Single (1 bet) Settled 150.00 276.00
12033480-2 19 Jun 2011 15:33 Single (1 bet) Settled 72.20 0.00
12033480-1 19 Jun 2011 15:33 Single (1 bet) Settled 72.20 0.00
12033109-1 19 Jun 2011 13:41 Single (1 bet) Settled 10.20 18.30
12033107-1 19 Jun 2011 13:40 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1524.00 1306.90
12033084-1 19 Jun 2011 13:31 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1200.00 717.50
12033078-1 19 Jun 2011 13:27 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1500.00 1618.20
12033071-1 19 Jun 2011 13:21 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 600.00 1071.60
12033016-1 19 Jun 2011 13:05 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1500.00 925.00
12032990-1 19 Jun 2011 12:50 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1500.00 40.20
12032970-1 19 Jun 2011 12:38 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1500.00 244.20
12032845-1 19 Jun 2011 11:37 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1500.00 5634.50
12032787-6 19 Jun 2011 11:06 Single (1 bet) Settled 150.00 0.00
12032787-5 19 Jun 2011 11:06 Single (1 bet) Settled 150.00 279.00
12032787-4 19 Jun 2011 11:06 Single (1 bet) Settled 150.00 0.00
12032787-3 19 Jun 2011 11:06 Single (1 bet) Settled 150.00 285.00
12032787-2 19 Jun 2011 11:06 Single (1 bet) Settled 150.00 0.00
12032787-1 19 Jun 2011 11:06 Single (1 bet) Settled 150.00 0.00
12032550-1 19 Jun 2011 08:58 Single (1 bet) Settled 0.50 0.00
12032544-6 19 Jun 2011 08:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 17.40 25.30
12032544-5 19 Jun 2011 08:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 17.40 0.00
12032544-4 19 Jun 2011 08:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 17.40 24.60
12032544-3 19 Jun 2011 08:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 17.40 32.80
12032544-2 19 Jun 2011 08:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 17.40 30.70
12032544-1 19 Jun 2011 08:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 17.40 31.10
12032533-1 19 Jun 2011 08:52 3 from 9 (84 bets) Settled 420.00 54.70
12032358-8 19 Jun 2011 07:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 109.10 54.50
12032358-7 19 Jun 2011 07:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 109.10 0.00
12032358-6 19 Jun 2011 07:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 109.10 0.00
12032358-5 19 Jun 2011 07:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 109.10 0.00
12032358-4 19 Jun 2011 07:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 109.10 109.10
12032358-3 19 Jun 2011 07:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 109.10 194.10
12032358-2 19 Jun 2011 07:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 109.10 199.60
12032358-1 19 Jun 2011 07:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 109.10 209.40
12032345-9 19 Jun 2011 06:53 Single (1 bet) Settled 7.70 10.80
12032345-8 19 Jun 2011 06:53 Single (1 bet) Settled 7.70 0.00
12032345-7 19 Jun 2011 06:53 Single (1 bet) Settled 7.70 14.30
12032345-6 19 Jun 2011 06:53 Single (1 bet) Settled 7.70 0.00
12032345-5 19 Jun 2011 06:53 Single (1 bet) Settled 7.70 7.70
12032345-4 19 Jun 2011 06:53 Single (1 bet) Settled 7.70 13.70
12032345-3 19 Jun 2011 06:53 Single (1 bet) Settled 7.70 14.00
12032345-2 19 Jun 2011 06:53 Single (1 bet) Settled 7.70 14.70
12032345-1 19 Jun 2011 06:53 Single (1 bet) Settled 7.70 0.00
12032343-1 19 Jun 2011 06:52 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 600.00 425.60
12032191-5 19 Jun 2011 03:23 Single (1 bet) Settled 30.00 55.50
12032191-4 19 Jun 2011 03:23 Single (1 bet) Settled 30.00 54.90
12032191-3 19 Jun 2011 03:23 Single (1 bet) Settled 30.00 0.00
12032191-2 19 Jun 2011 03:23 Single (1 bet) Settled 30.00 53.70
12032191-1 19 Jun 2011 03:23 Single (1 bet) Settled 28.30 0.00
12032188-1 19 Jun 2011 03:22 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1500.00 1228.40
12032174-1 19 Jun 2011 02:59 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1200.00 96.50
12032162-1 19 Jun 2011 02:43 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1500.00 2266.00
12032159-1 19 Jun 2011 02:41 Single (1 bet) Settled 28.50 0.00
12032141-8 19 Jun 2011 02:20 Single (1 bet) Settled 101.10 0.00
12032141-7 19 Jun 2011 02:20 Single (1 bet) Settled 101.10 101.10
12032141-6 19 Jun 2011 02:20 Single (1 bet) Settled 101.10 196.10
12032141-5 19 Jun 2011 02:20 Single (1 bet) Settled 101.20 193.20
12032141-4 19 Jun 2011 02:20 Single (1 bet) Settled 101.50 187.70
12032141-3 19 Jun 2011 02:20 Single (1 bet) Settled 101.50 187.70
12032141-2 19 Jun 2011 02:20 Single (1 bet) Settled 101.50 0.00
12032141-1 19 Jun 2011 02:20 Single (1 bet) Settled 101.50 181.60
12031974-8 18 Jun 2011 23:46 Single (1 bet) Settled 85.00 0.00
12031974-7 18 Jun 2011 23:46 Single (1 bet) Settled 85.00 0.00
12031974-6 18 Jun 2011 23:46 Single (1 bet) Settled 85.10 152.30
12031974-5 18 Jun 2011 23:46 Single (1 bet) Settled 85.10 175.30
12031974-4 18 Jun 2011 23:46 Single (1 bet) Settled 85.10 0.00
12031974-3 18 Jun 2011 23:46 Single (1 bet) Settled 85.10 0.00
12031974-2 18 Jun 2011 23:46 Single (1 bet) Settled 85.10 0.00
12031974-1 18 Jun 2011 23:46 Single (1 bet) Settled 85.10 157.40
12031968-7 18 Jun 2011 23:43 Single (1 bet) Settled 152.30 152.30
12031968-6 18 Jun 2011 23:43 Single (1 bet) Settled 147.40 281.50
12031968-5 18 Jun 2011 23:43 Single (1 bet) Settled 152.30 281.70
12031968-4 18 Jun 2011 23:43 Single (1 bet) Settled 157.40 281.70
12031968-3 18 Jun 2011 23:43 Single (1 bet) Settled 152.30 281.70
12031968-2 18 Jun 2011 23:43 Single (1 bet) Settled 152.30 281.70
12031968-1 18 Jun 2011 23:43 Single (1 bet) Settled 136.00 136.00
12031964-1 18 Jun 2011 23:38 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 600.00 1311.80
12031962-1 18 Jun 2011 23:37 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 600.00 348.50
12031951-1 18 Jun 2011 23:26 Single (1 bet) Settled 1.80 2.90
12031949-1 18 Jun 2011 23:25 2 from 9 (36 bets) Settled 583.20 468.20
12031936-1 18 Jun 2011 23:08 Single (1 bet) Settled 0.70 0.80
12031934-1 18 Jun 2011 23:05 2 from 6 (15 bets) Settled 430.50 550.60
12031887-5 18 Jun 2011 22:00 Single (1 bet) Settled 120.00 247.20
12031887-4 18 Jun 2011 22:00 Single (1 bet) Settled 119.90 0.00
12031887-3 18 Jun 2011 22:00 Single (1 bet) Settled 120.00 120.00
12031887-2 18 Jun 2011 22:00 Single (1 bet) Settled 119.50 248.50
12031887-1 18 Jun 2011 22:00 Single (1 bet) Settled 120.00 0.00
12031886-1 18 Jun 2011 21:57 2 from 8 (28 bets) Settled 1201.20 1570.20
12031883-1 18 Jun 2011 21:52 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1500.00 1942.70
12031882-1 18 Jun 2011 21:48 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1500.00 957.60
12031867-1 18 Jun 2011 21:30 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1500.00 2393.70
12031846-1 18 Jun 2011 21:17 Single (1 bet) Settled 1.10 1.40
12031844-1 18 Jun 2011 21:16 2 from 6 (15 bets) Settled 495.00 207.00
12031808-1 18 Jun 2011 20:43 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1500.00 1770.90

 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
Member of Team:
Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)

Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
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a3ton81
20-Jun 2011 Monday 9:52 AM (4697 days ago)            #21
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Posts: 17642
Liked By: 2102
Joined: 22 Aug 03



    

Tipsters
Championship:
Player has
not started

 
sorry for hijacking

can enlighten how this bet type works??? obvious that this bet type is making $$$ for u consistantly



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a3ton81
20-Jun 2011 Monday 12:56 PM (4697 days ago)            #22
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Posts: 17642
Liked By: 2102
Joined: 22 Aug 03



    

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not started

 
sorry.forget to add in the bet type

12031808-1 18 Jun 2011 20:43 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1500.00 1770.90



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Fahrenheit
20-Jun 2011 Monday 10:34 PM (4696 days ago)            #23
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Posts: 51763
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Joined: 26 May 08
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Tipsters
Championship:
AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked:
#1352

 

quote originally posted by a3ton81:

 

sorry for hijacking

can enlighten how this bet type works??? obvious that this bet type is making $$$ for u consistantly

 


It's a bit like TOTO System 24.... basically, i just string 10 matches together into a consolidated set of 120 betting lines. The criteria for not losing your money entirely is to guarantee that you must strike at least 3 out of the 10 matches. If you only strike 2/10 , you lose the entire stake. But if you strike 3 or more,either you loss is minimized, or your winnings is maximized... i decided to go with this bet type,because i'm pretty confident of at least 30% strike rate... when i strike 5/10 , i more or less break even.. When i strike 6/10 , i get roughly one-for-one returns.. The "jackpot" comes when i strike 7 & above , i get 3-5 times the return... If i strike10/10 , i get 8 times the stake...

what i mean by guaranteeing 3/10 strike rate is strictly limited to EVEN-MONEY bets only (ie. Asian Handicap Odds)..If the odds is Asou-Sanishly low like 1.05,  then confirm 8/10 strike rate also no use... haha~!

So far i haven't scored perfect 10 yet  but my best record is 8/10... Most of the time i get 3/10 & 6/10 ..

In general, the 6/10 winning combos offsets the 3/10 losing combos and generates an overall profit..

 

What i've done over the weekend was using a "bet-round-the-clock" strategy ...For example, starting from 12pm i construct the several batch of "10 bets" from whatever league available at the time.. (ie. J LEAGUE ,K LEAGUE)

Let's say there are 20 matches from 12-2pm (not limited to soccer only.. ie. basketball, tennis, horse, hockey, whatsoever) , then i will form various sets of "10 bet"combinations that resembles a TOTO system bet... For illustration purpose :

A-B-C-D-E-F-G-H-J-K

R-S-T-U-V-W-X-Y-Z

A-R-B-S-C-T-D-U-E

A-S-C-U-F-V-H-X-K

C-D-S-T-F-W-X-J-Z

AND SO ON, AND SO ON... the combinations are based on what i feel will guarantee myself 30% strike rate on each set...i'm able to come to a decision fast, because i have a standardised bet screening process...As long as the odds-line is higher or equal to my EXCEL-generated odds, then i put up the bet without an ounce of hesitation...

 
 
So, if i get lucky, one or more of the constructed sets may strike 7 or 8 matches out of 10..Then there'll be "superior return" in excess of the 3/10 losses...

Anyway, by evening the matches are over, i "re-invest" the settled returns (returns with either realised gains or losses) and construct another several sets of "10 bets" from whatever leagues is available in the evening...

Then by 10pm, when the matches are over, i repeat the process on other leagues... 12am , 2.45-3am , 5am , 7am , 10am , 12pm, 2 pm (loop)

In this way, my bankroll will either compound or de-escalate rapidly round-the-clock...

 So far, my aggregate winning actions have offset the aggregate lossing actions at a profit rate of around 2-6%. Although 2% seems a small figure, but owing to the

"bet-round-the-clock" strategy, the 2% seems to compound into a rather decent amount =)

 

i'm not exactly sure how they calculate my returns though,coz for asian handicap, the definition of "strike rate" is not so clear cut... There's  0/0.5 , 0.5/1 means the result will be LOSE/VOID , VOID/WIN , etc..so i'm not sure if a VOID/WIN is considered a win in the "3-of-10" criterion.....

 

Anyway the bottomline is to guarantee 3 of 10 strike rate,and strive to strike 6/10 or higher...Only then this will be profitable.

My only worry is that one day, my luck may crash =/ 

 

This message was edited by Fahrenheit on 21-Jun-2011 @ 12:49 AM




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
Member of Team:
Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)

Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
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Fahrenheit
21-Jun 2011 Tuesday 4:32 AM (4696 days ago)            #24
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 51763
Liked By: 39337
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 58



    

Tipsters
Championship:
AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked:
#1352

 
 

 20 June 2011.............

 

total betting action = 6494.90

total return action = 4504.40

today's losses = 1985.50 (argghhhhh!!!!):wall

 

Betting Slip Date (GMT) Bet Type Status Total Stake Returns
12035846-1 20 Jun 2011 18:02 Single (1 bet) Settled 145.20 196.00
12034434-1 20 Jun 2011 04:37 Single (1 bet) Settled 100.00 0.00
12034367-1 20 Jun 2011 03:34 Single (1 bet) Settled 125.70 0.00
12034361-8 20 Jun 2011 03:27 Single (1 bet) Settled 150.00 330.00
12034361-7 20 Jun 2011 03:27 Single (1 bet) Settled 150.00 356.20
12034361-6 20 Jun 2011 03:27 Single (1 bet) Settled 150.00 259.00
12034361-5 20 Jun 2011 03:27 Single (1 bet) Settled 150.00 250.00
12034361-4 20 Jun 2011 03:27 Single (1 bet) Settled 150.00 0.00
12034361-3 20 Jun 2011 03:27 Single (1 bet) Settled 150.00 0.00
12034361-2 20 Jun 2011 03:27 Single (1 bet) Settled 150.00 0.00
12034361-1 20 Jun 2011 03:27 Single (1 bet) Settled 150.00 0.00
12034286-1 20 Jun 2011 01:23 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1800.00 2082.70
12034112-1 19 Jun 2011 20:54 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1500.00 112.60
12033851-1 19 Jun 2011 18:08 Single (1 bet) Settled 124.00 229.40
12033842-1 19 Jun 2011 18:04 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1500.00 693.50

 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
Member of Team:
Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)

Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
   Like     
Fahrenheit
21-Jun 2011 Tuesday 8:23 PM (4695 days ago)            #25
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quote originally posted by DO DO:

wah bro i bet BI some time liao i duno got this what 3 of 10 selection sia seems easy to win 3/10 bets , how to select it ?


just select 5 matches at one go,and you will a few options appear below on the sidebar , like 2 or 5 , 3 of 5 , 4 of 5...

The more you string together, the more of these kind of options ill appear.




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
Member of Team:
Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)

Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
   Like     
seelangui
21-Jun 2011 Tuesday 11:07 PM (4695 days ago)            #26
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Posts: 84185
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Championship:
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Ranked:
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bro i want to learn also

i had my kang fu also

but i want to learn more types

 



see what you want to see believe all you see
My current Mission is keep wining until S_P 斗/close shop
use main & sub method unit 1 unit= $20:
Use main bet as base the rest side bet to add on to max win or more Name it Eye jackpot system 南神眼



betting records at
http://forums.asianbookie.com/viewmessages.cfm?Forum=45&Topic=2112557


AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
Member of Team:
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(Est. Nov 2013)

Total Members: 17
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Fahrenheit
22-Jun 2011 Wednesday 10:18 AM (4695 days ago)            #27
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Posts: 51763
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Tipsters
Championship:
AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked:
#1352

 
 

 21 June 2011.............

 

total betting action = 1971.00

total return action = 928.75

today's losses = 1042.25 :wall

 

Betting Slip Date (GMT) Bet Type Status Total Stake Returns
12037041-2 21 Jun 2011 15:23 Single (1 bet) Settled 250.00 0.00
12037041-1 21 Jun 2011 15:23 Single (1 bet) Settled 331.25 331.25
12036902-3 21 Jun 2011 14:27 Single (1 bet) Settled 338.25 0.00
12036902-2 21 Jun 2011 14:27 Single (1 bet) Settled 338.25 0.00
12036765-1 21 Jun 2011 13:21 Single (1 bet) Settled 16.25 0.00
12036135-1 21 Jun 2011 05:23 Single (1 bet) Settled 176.75 0.00
12036119-1 21 Jun 2011 02:05 Single (1 bet) Settled 12.50 0.00
12036118-1 21 Jun 2011 02:04 Single (1 bet) Settled 125.00 0.00
12036117-1 21 Jun 2011 02:02 Single (1 bet) Settled 125.00 193.75
12036116-1 21 Jun 2011 02:01 Single (1 bet) Settled 250.00 387.50
12036109-1 21 Jun 2011 01:29 Single (1 bet) Settled 7.75 16.25

 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
Member of Team:
Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)

Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
   Like     
seelangui
22-Jun 2011 Wednesday 6:31 PM (4694 days ago)            #28
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Posts: 84185
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Tipsters
Championship:
AB$: -507,187.50
Ranked:
#2783

 
i share my betting system with you , to be fair

my way one that  is win and win and win

dont lose a match.if that happen i would

win 7 time in a row.i dont care about odds

i use the classic way. your way got too

much risk as i follow throught sometime

need a lot of $ to do it.good luck bro

thank for sharing the way you bet



see what you want to see believe all you see
My current Mission is keep wining until S_P 斗/close shop
use main & sub method unit 1 unit= $20:
Use main bet as base the rest side bet to add on to max win or more Name it Eye jackpot system 南神眼



betting records at
http://forums.asianbookie.com/viewmessages.cfm?Forum=45&Topic=2112557


AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
Member of Team:
東方不敗
(Est. Nov 2013)

Total Members: 17
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Fahrenheit
22-Jun 2011 Wednesday 7:10 PM (4694 days ago)            #29
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Posts: 51763
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Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 58



    

Tipsters
Championship:
AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked:
#1352

 
quote originally posted by seelangui:

i share my betting system with you , to be fair

 

my way one that  is win and win and win

dont lose a match.if that happen i would

win 7 time in a row.i dont care about odds

i use the classic way. your way got too

much risk as i follow throught sometime

need a lot of $ to do it.good luck bro

thank for sharing the way you bet




yah, need to make 120 betting lines in one shot =)




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
Member of Team:
Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)

Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
   Like     
seelangui
22-Jun 2011 Wednesday 8:22 PM (4694 days ago)            #30
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 84185
Liked By: 58540
Joined: 30 May 11
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Tipsters
Championship:
AB$: -507,187.50
Ranked:
#2783

 
i really like to try out but alway lose

three time in a row like today i place kofu 1.5 goal and lose

so sway.that made me more blind.i alway learn more and more

way to keep up in this field.i kewn as time changes style

also change.so dont people in this field.but rules are the same made money 

i would upgrade your bet style and made it better

good luck to you and all in this field.without us there is not betting in this world.yes



see what you want to see believe all you see
My current Mission is keep wining until S_P 斗/close shop
use main & sub method unit 1 unit= $20:
Use main bet as base the rest side bet to add on to max win or more Name it Eye jackpot system 南神眼



betting records at
http://forums.asianbookie.com/viewmessages.cfm?Forum=45&Topic=2112557


AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
Member of Team:
東方不敗
(Est. Nov 2013)

Total Members: 17
   Like     
Fahrenheit
23-Jun 2011 Thursday 6:05 AM (4694 days ago)            #31
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 51763
Liked By: 39337
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 58



    

Tipsters
Championship:
AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked:
#1352

 
 

 22 June 2011.............

 

total betting action = 7188.60

total return action = 4601.70

today's losses = 2586.90 :wall

 

Betting Slip Date (GMT) Bet Type Status Total Stake Returns
12038420-1 22 Jun 2011 12:56 2 from 9 (36 bets) Settled 464.40 602.60
12038373-1 22 Jun 2011 12:38 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1500.00 1548.00
12038264-1 22 Jun 2011 11:31 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 600.00 277.90
12038256-1 22 Jun 2011 11:28 Single (1 bet) Settled 149.90 0.00
12037694-1 22 Jun 2011 02:03 Single (1 bet) Settled 8.00 0.00
12037693-1 22 Jun 2011 02:02 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1392.00 749.90
12037690-1 22 Jun 2011 01:58 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1500.00 923.50
12037683-1 22 Jun 2011 01:51 Single (1 bet) Settled 74.30 0.00
12037679-1 22 Jun 2011 01:44 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1500.00 499.80

 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
Member of Team:
Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)

Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
   Like     
Fahrenheit
24-Jun 2011 Friday 7:22 AM (4693 days ago)            #32
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 51763
Liked By: 39337
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 58



    

Tipsters
Championship:
AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked:
#1352

 
 

 23 June 2011.............

 

total betting action = 1482.20

total return action = 1324.40

today's losses = 157.80 :wall

 

Betting Slip Date (GMT) Bet Type Status Total Stake Returns
12040585-6 23 Jun 2011 13:53 Single (1 bet) Settled 3.20 0.00
12040585-5 23 Jun 2011 13:53 Single (1 bet) Settled 3.00 0.00
12040585-4 23 Jun 2011 13:53 Single (1 bet) Settled 3.00 5.80
12040585-3 23 Jun 2011 13:53 Single (1 bet) Settled 3.00 6.00
12040585-2 23 Jun 2011 13:53 Single (1 bet) Settled 3.00 6.20
12040585-1 23 Jun 2011 13:53 Single (1 bet) Settled 3.00 0.00
12039777-1 23 Jun 2011 01:39 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1464.00 1306.40

 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
Member of Team:
Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)

Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
   Like     
seelangui
24-Jun 2011 Friday 10:13 PM (4692 days ago)            #33
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 84185
Liked By: 58540
Joined: 30 May 11
Followers: 32



    

Tipsters
Championship:
AB$: -507,187.50
Ranked:
#2783

 
120 lines way loss?

my way was 6 way bet to jackpot

i name it the jackpot way

use a main bet to act a base

the rest i use side bet

better luck next time all the best



see what you want to see believe all you see
My current Mission is keep wining until S_P 斗/close shop
use main & sub method unit 1 unit= $20:
Use main bet as base the rest side bet to add on to max win or more Name it Eye jackpot system 南神眼



betting records at
http://forums.asianbookie.com/viewmessages.cfm?Forum=45&Topic=2112557


AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
Member of Team:
東方不敗
(Est. Nov 2013)

Total Members: 17
   Like     
Fahrenheit
26-Jun 2011 Sunday 7:04 AM (4691 days ago)            #34
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 51763
Liked By: 39337
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 58



    

Tipsters
Championship:
AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked:
#1352

 
 

25 June 2011.............

 

total betting action = 3818.50

total return action = 3816.50

today's losses = 2.00:wall

 

Betting Slip Date (GMT) Bet Type Status Total Stake Returns
12043889-1 25 Jun 2011 13:46 Single (1 bet) Settled 24.75 0.00
12043861-1 25 Jun 2011 13:41 Single (1 bet) Settled 12.50 12.50
12043820-4 25 Jun 2011 13:27 Single (1 bet) Settled 6.25 0.00
12043820-3 25 Jun 2011 13:27 Single (1 bet) Settled 6.25 0.00
12043820-2 25 Jun 2011 13:27 Single (1 bet) Settled 6.25 0.00
12043820-1 25 Jun 2011 13:27 Single (1 bet) Settled 6.25 6.25
12043782-10 25 Jun 2011 13:16 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.50 0.00
12043782-9 25 Jun 2011 13:16 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.25 0.00
12043782-8 25 Jun 2011 13:16 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.50 53.50
12043782-7 25 Jun 2011 13:16 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.50 55.75
12043782-6 25 Jun 2011 13:16 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.50 0.00
12043782-5 25 Jun 2011 13:16 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.50 0.00
12043782-4 25 Jun 2011 13:16 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.50 25.50
12043782-3 25 Jun 2011 13:16 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.50 60.75
12043782-2 25 Jun 2011 13:16 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.25 60.50
12043782-1 25 Jun 2011 13:16 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.50 0.00
12043636-10 25 Jun 2011 12:20 Single (1 bet) Settled 112.50 0.00
12043636-9 25 Jun 2011 12:20 Single (1 bet) Settled 112.50 0.00
12043636-8 25 Jun 2011 12:20 Single (1 bet) Settled 112.50 262.00
12043636-7 25 Jun 2011 12:20 Single (1 bet) Settled 112.50 112.50
12043636-6 25 Jun 2011 12:20 Single (1 bet) Settled 112.50 270.00
12043636-5 25 Jun 2011 12:20 Single (1 bet) Settled 112.50 0.00
12043636-4 25 Jun 2011 12:20 Single (1 bet) Settled 113.75 0.00
12043636-3 25 Jun 2011 12:20 Single (1 bet) Settled 114.00 0.00
12043636-2 25 Jun 2011 12:20 Single (1 bet) Settled 113.00 206.75
12043636-1 25 Jun 2011 12:20 Single (1 bet) Settled 113.75 0.00
12043294-1 25 Jun 2011 09:54 Single (1 bet) Settled 124.75 62.25
12043292-9 25 Jun 2011 09:54 Single (1 bet) Settled 125.00 0.00
12043292-8 25 Jun 2011 09:54 Single (1 bet) Settled 124.25 246.00
12043292-7 25 Jun 2011 09:54 Single (1 bet) Settled 124.25 254.50
12043292-6 25 Jun 2011 09:54 Single (1 bet) Settled 124.75 223.25
12043292-5 25 Jun 2011 09:54 Single (1 bet) Settled 124.25 0.00
12043292-4 25 Jun 2011 09:54 Single (1 bet) Settled 124.25 0.00
12043292-3 25 Jun 2011 09:54 Single (1 bet) Settled 124.25 234.75
12043292-2 25 Jun 2011 09:54 Single (1 bet) Settled 124.25 246.00
12043292-1 25 Jun 2011 09:54 Single (1 bet) Settled 124.25 179.50
12042951-10 25 Jun 2011 05:25 Single (1 bet) Settled 112.75 0.00
12042951-9 25 Jun 2011 05:25 Single (1 bet) Settled 112.75 231.00
12042951-8 25 Jun 2011 05:25 Single (1 bet) Settled 112.75 255.75
12042951-7 25 Jun 2011 05:25 Single (1 bet) Settled 113.00 0.00
12042951-6 25 Jun 2011 05:25 Single (1 bet) Settled 113.00 203.25
12042951-5 25 Jun 2011 05:25 Single (1 bet) Settled 112.75 56.25
12042951-4 25 Jun 2011 05:25 Single (1 bet) Settled 112.75 0.00
12042951-3 25 Jun 2011 05:25 Single (1 bet) Settled 112.75 56.25
12042951-2 25 Jun 2011 05:25 Single (1 bet) Settled 112.75 214.00
12042951-1 25 Jun 2011 05:25 Single (1 bet) Settled 112.75 227.75

 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

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   Like     
Fahrenheit
27-Jun 2011 Monday 3:25 AM (4690 days ago)            #35
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 51763
Liked By: 39337
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 58



    

Tipsters
Championship:
AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked:
#1352

 
 

26 June 2011.............

 

total betting action = 3387.80

total return action = 3625.60

today's profits = 237.80 

 

Betting Slip Date (GMT) Bet Type Status Total Stake Returns
12046098-1 26 Jun 2011 14:30 Single (1 bet) Settled 9.10 4.50
12045963-6 26 Jun 2011 13:42 Single (1 bet) Settled 22.80 0.00
12045963-5 26 Jun 2011 13:42 Single (1 bet) Settled 22.80 46.90
12045963-4 26 Jun 2011 13:42 Single (1 bet) Settled 22.80 31.60
12045963-3 26 Jun 2011 13:42 Single (1 bet) Settled 22.80 0.00
12045963-2 26 Jun 2011 13:42 Single (1 bet) Settled 22.80 0.00
12045963-1 26 Jun 2011 13:42 Single (1 bet) Settled 22.80 43.70
12045856-9 26 Jun 2011 12:45 Single (1 bet) Settled 23.00 0.00
12045856-8 26 Jun 2011 12:45 Single (1 bet) Settled 24.00 0.00
12045856-7 26 Jun 2011 12:45 Single (1 bet) Settled 24.00 12.00
12045856-6 26 Jun 2011 12:45 Single (1 bet) Settled 23.00 23.00
12045856-4 26 Jun 2011 12:45 Single (1 bet) Settled 23.00 0.00
12045683-8 26 Jun 2011 11:08 Single (1 bet) Settled 5.10 9.50
12045683-3 26 Jun 2011 11:08 Single (1 bet) Settled 5.10 9.10
12045683-2 26 Jun 2011 11:08 Single (1 bet) Settled 5.00 10.30
12045442-8 26 Jun 2011 08:43 Single (1 bet) Settled 6.00 10.50
12045442-7 26 Jun 2011 08:43 Single (1 bet) Settled 5.90 11.00
12045442-6 26 Jun 2011 08:43 Single (1 bet) Settled 5.80 2.90
12045442-5 26 Jun 2011 08:43 Single (1 bet) Settled 5.70 5.70
12045442-4 26 Jun 2011 08:43 Single (1 bet) Settled 5.70 10.20
12045442-3 26 Jun 2011 08:43 Single (1 bet) Settled 5.60 0.00
12045442-2 26 Jun 2011 08:43 Single (1 bet) Settled 5.50 0.00
12045442-1 26 Jun 2011 08:43 Single (1 bet) Settled 5.40 0.00
12045309-1 26 Jun 2011 05:47 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1500.00 2078.80
12045304-1 26 Jun 2011 05:35 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1500.00 1134.10
12045282-1 26 Jun 2011 04:52 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 45.00
12045263-1 26 Jun 2011 04:40 Single (1 bet) Settled 39.10 136.80

 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

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   Like     
Fahrenheit
28-Jun 2011 Tuesday 4:38 AM (4689 days ago)            #36
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 51763
Liked By: 39337
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 58



    

Tipsters
Championship:
AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked:
#1352

 
 

27 June 2011.............

 

total betting action = 1617.20

total return action = 2751.90

today's profits = 1134.70 

 

Betting Slip Date (GMT) Bet Type Status Total Stake Returns
12047455-6 27 Jun 2011 13:59 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12047455-5 27 Jun 2011 13:59 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 38.20
12047455-4 27 Jun 2011 13:59 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 47.20
12047455-3 27 Jun 2011 13:59 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12047455-2 27 Jun 2011 13:59 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 48.70
12047455-1 27 Jun 2011 13:59 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 46.50
12047314-3 27 Jun 2011 12:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 5.00 0.00
12047314-2 27 Jun 2011 12:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 5.10 7.10
12047314-1 27 Jun 2011 12:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 5.10 9.80
12047251-10 27 Jun 2011 12:28 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 68.70
12047251-9 27 Jun 2011 12:28 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12047251-8 27 Jun 2011 12:28 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 71.80
12047226-10 27 Jun 2011 12:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 49.20
12047226-9 27 Jun 2011 12:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 48.70
12047226-8 27 Jun 2011 12:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12047226-7 27 Jun 2011 12:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 47.20
12047226-6 27 Jun 2011 12:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12047226-5 27 Jun 2011 12:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12047226-4 27 Jun 2011 12:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 37.20
12047226-3 27 Jun 2011 12:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12047226-2 27 Jun 2011 12:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 35.20
12047226-1 27 Jun 2011 12:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 50.20
12046851-5 27 Jun 2011 05:07 Single (1 bet) Settled 99.00 0.00
12046851-4 27 Jun 2011 05:07 Single (1 bet) Settled 99.00 0.00
12046851-3 27 Jun 2011 05:07 Single (1 bet) Settled 99.00 0.00
12046851-2 27 Jun 2011 05:07 Single (1 bet) Settled 99.00 99.00
12046851-1 27 Jun 2011 05:07 Single (1 bet) Settled 99.00 198.00
12046850-1 27 Jun 2011 05:00 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 600.00 1797.20
12046795-5 27 Jun 2011 00:52 Single (1 bet) Settled 6.40 18.40
12046795-4 27 Jun 2011 00:52 Single (1 bet) Settled 6.40 0.00
12046795-3 27 Jun 2011 00:52 Single (1 bet) Settled 6.40 0.00
12046795-2 27 Jun 2011 00:52 Single (1 bet) Settled 6.40 18.40
12046795-1 27 Jun 2011 00:52 Single (1 bet) Settled 6.40 15.20

 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

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   Like     
laiszewea 28-Jun 2011 Tuesday 1:11 PM (4689 days ago)            #37
Administrator

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Tipsters
Championship:
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quote originally posted by Fahrenheit:

 



25 June 2011.............



 



total betting action = 3818.50



total return action = 3816.50



today's losses = 2.00



 






































































































































































































































































































































































































Betting Slip

Date (GMT)

Bet Type

Status

Total Stake

Returns

12043889-1

25 Jun 2011 13:46

Single (1 bet)

Settled

24.75

0.00

12043861-1

25 Jun 2011 13:41

Single (1 bet)

Settled

12.50

12.50

12043820-4

25 Jun 2011 13:27

Single (1 bet)

Settled

6.25

0.00

12043820-3

25 Jun 2011 13:27

Single (1 bet)

Settled

6.25

0.00

12043820-2

25 Jun 2011 13:27

Single (1 bet)

Settled

6.25

0.00

12043820-1

25 Jun 2011 13:27

Single (1 bet)

Settled

6.25

6.25

12043782-10

25 Jun 2011 13:16

Single (1 bet)

Settled

25.50

0.00

12043782-9

25 Jun 2011 13:16

Single (1 bet)

Settled

25.25

0.00

12043782-8

25 Jun 2011 13:16

Single (1 bet)

Settled

25.50

53.50

12043782-7

25 Jun 2011 13:16

Single (1 bet)

Settled

25.50

55.75

12043782-6

25 Jun 2011 13:16

Single (1 bet)

Settled

25.50

0.00

12043782-5

25 Jun 2011 13:16

Single (1 bet)

Settled

25.50

0.00

12043782-4

25 Jun 2011 13:16

Single (1 bet)

Settled

25.50

25.50

12043782-3

25 Jun 2011 13:16

Single (1 bet)

Settled

25.50

60.75

12043782-2

25 Jun 2011 13:16

Single (1 bet)

Settled

25.25

60.50

12043782-1

25 Jun 2011 13:16

Single (1 bet)

Settled

25.50

0.00

12043636-10

25 Jun 2011 12:20

Single (1 bet)

Settled

112.50

0.00

12043636-9

25 Jun 2011 12:20

Single (1 bet)

Settled

112.50

0.00

12043636-8

25 Jun 2011 12:20

Single (1 bet)

Settled

112.50

262.00

12043636-7

25 Jun 2011 12:20

Single (1 bet)

Settled

112.50

112.50

12043636-6

25 Jun 2011 12:20

Single (1 bet)

Settled

112.50

270.00

12043636-5

25 Jun 2011 12:20

Single (1 bet)

Settled

112.50

0.00

12043636-4

25 Jun 2011 12:20

Single (1 bet)

Settled

113.75

0.00

12043636-3

25 Jun 2011 12:20

Single (1 bet)

Settled

114.00

0.00

12043636-2

25 Jun 2011 12:20

Single (1 bet)

Settled

113.00

206.75

12043636-1

25 Jun 2011 12:20

Single (1 bet)

Settled

113.75

0.00

12043294-1

25 Jun 2011 09:54

Single (1 bet)

Settled

124.75

62.25

12043292-9

25 Jun 2011 09:54

Single (1 bet)

Settled

125.00

0.00

12043292-8

25 Jun 2011 09:54

Single (1 bet)

Settled

124.25

246.00

12043292-7

25 Jun 2011 09:54

Single (1 bet)

Settled

124.25

254.50

12043292-6

25 Jun 2011 09:54

Single (1 bet)

Settled

124.75

223.25

12043292-5

25 Jun 2011 09:54

Single (1 bet)

Settled

124.25

0.00

12043292-4

25 Jun 2011 09:54

Single (1 bet)

Settled

124.25

0.00

12043292-3

25 Jun 2011 09:54

Single (1 bet)

Settled

124.25

234.75

12043292-2

25 Jun 2011 09:54

Single (1 bet)

Settled

124.25

246.00

12043292-1

25 Jun 2011 09:54

Single (1 bet)

Settled

124.25

179.50

12042951-10

25 Jun 2011 05:25

Single (1 bet)

Settled

112.75

0.00

12042951-9

25 Jun 2011 05:25

Single (1 bet)

Settled

112.75

231.00

12042951-8

25 Jun 2011 05:25

Single (1 bet)

Settled

112.75

255.75

12042951-7

25 Jun 2011 05:25

Single (1 bet)

Settled

113.00

0.00

12042951-6

25 Jun 2011 05:25

Single (1 bet)

Settled

113.00

203.25

12042951-5

25 Jun 2011 05:25

Single (1 bet)

Settled

112.75

56.25

12042951-4

25 Jun 2011 05:25

Single (1 bet)

Settled

112.75

0.00

12042951-3

25 Jun 2011 05:25

Single (1 bet)

Settled

112.75

56.25

12042951-2

25 Jun 2011 05:25

Single (1 bet)

Settled

112.75

214.00

12042951-1

25 Jun 2011 05:25

Single (1 bet)

Settled

112.75

227.75


 





hehe ! $2 Playful Playful

kopi money for Betinternet Evil Grin




Life is full of surprises.

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Fahrenheit
29-Jun 2011 Wednesday 8:25 AM (4688 days ago)            #38
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 51763
Liked By: 39337
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 58



    

Tipsters
Championship:
AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked:
#1352

 
 

28 June 2011.............

 

total betting action = 2713.60

total return action = 2956.80

today's profit = 243.20

 

Betting Slip Date (GMT) Bet Type Status Total Stake Returns
12049082-3 28 Jun 2011 18:22 Single (1 bet) Settled 37.50 73.10
12049082-2 28 Jun 2011 18:22 Single (1 bet) Settled 37.50 0.00
12049082-1 28 Jun 2011 18:22 Single (1 bet) Settled 37.50 18.70
12048838-1 28 Jun 2011 15:48 Single (1 bet) Settled 48.80 0.00
12048606-2 28 Jun 2011 13:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12048606-1 28 Jun 2011 13:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 25.00 0.00
12048346-1 28 Jun 2011 11:39 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 600.00 65.70
12048274-5 28 Jun 2011 10:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 100.00 0.00
12048019-1 27 Jun 2011 19:19 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1500.00 2232.40
12047758-2 27 Jun 2011 15:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 66.60 147.80
12047758-1 27 Jun 2011 15:57 Single (1 bet) Settled 100.00 174.00
12047652-4 27 Jun 2011 15:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 24.00 34.80
12047652-3 27 Jun 2011 15:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 24.30 48.80
12047652-2 27 Jun 2011 15:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 24.20 43.00
12047652-1 27 Jun 2011 15:11 Single (1 bet) Settled 24.10 46.20
12047474-2 27 Jun 2011 14:07 Single (1 bet) Settled 19.50 34.70
12047474-1 27 Jun 2011 14:07 Single (1 bet) Settled 19.60 37.60

 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

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   Like     
Fahrenheit
02-Jul 2011 Saturday 6:19 AM (4685 days ago)            #39
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 51763
Liked By: 39337
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 58



    

Tipsters
Championship:
AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked:
#1352

 
1 July 2011.............

 

total betting action = 4704

total return action = 5633.30

today's profit = 929.30

 

 

Betting Slip Date (GMT) Bet Type Status Total Stake Returns
12052881-5 1 Jul 2011 12:01 Single (1 bet) Settled 40.80 0.00
12052881-4 1 Jul 2011 12:01 Single (1 bet) Settled 40.80 20.40
12052881-3 1 Jul 2011 12:01 Single (1 bet) Settled 40.80 0.00
12052881-2 1 Jul 2011 12:01 Single (1 bet) Settled 40.80 85.20
12052881-1 1 Jul 2011 12:01 Single (1 bet) Settled 40.80 40.80
12052873-1 1 Jul 2011 11:54 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1500.00 419.80
12052838-1 1 Jul 2011 11:35 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1500.00 33.30
12052497-1 1 Jul 2011 08:29 3 from 10 (120 bets) Settled 1500.00 5033.80

 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

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