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Posted By Topic: Admins discussing which member to give yellow card & suspend       - Views: 175
Fahrenheit 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 2:55 PM (13 days ago)
Data Dunia, Eleven Men and hanman0072002  3 Likes  
              #1
*Diamond Member*


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Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 57



    

Tipsters
Championship:
 AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked: #1410
 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)
Team Ranked: #50 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
 
Data Dunia, Eleven Men and hanman0072002  3 Likes  
 Like     



Fahrenheit 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 2:58 PM (13 days ago)            #2
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Posts: 51829
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Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 57



    

Tipsters
Championship:
 AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked: #1410
  		Mr Asianbookie 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)
Team Ranked: #50 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
   Like     
LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 2:59 PM (13 days ago)            #3
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  		lol

Can have a few members with a lot of medals?



AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 BIG GUY's team
(Est. Jun 2021)
Team Ranked: #3 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 83,616,875 Total Members: 1291
 
Fahrenheit  1 Likes  
 Like     
Fahrenheit 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 3:04 PM (13 days ago)            #4
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 51829
Liked By: 39357
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 57



    

Tipsters
Championship:
 AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked: #1410
  		quote originally posted by LONGSTER:
lol

Can have a few members with a lot of medals?

You wanna try?

 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)
Team Ranked: #50 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
   Like     
LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 3:07 PM (13 days ago)            #5
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  		quote originally posted by Fahrenheit:
You wanna try?



 

This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 3:08 PM



AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 BIG GUY's team
(Est. Jun 2021)
Team Ranked: #3 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 83,616,875 Total Members: 1291
 
Eleven Men and Fahrenheit  2 Likes  
 Like     
Fahrenheit 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 3:08 PM (13 days ago)            #6
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Posts: 51829
Liked By: 39357
Joined: 26 May 08
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Tipsters
Championship:
 AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked: #1410
  		quote originally posted by LONGSTER:

  This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 3:08 PM






"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)
Team Ranked: #50 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
   Like     
LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 3:10 PM (13 days ago)            #7
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  		quote originally posted by LONGSTER:

  This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 3:08 PM



 



AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 BIG GUY's team
(Est. Jun 2021)
Team Ranked: #3 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 83,616,875 Total Members: 1291
   Like     
LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 3:13 PM (13 days ago)            #8
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Posts: 100334
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AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 BIG GUY's team
(Est. Jun 2021)
Team Ranked: #3 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 83,616,875 Total Members: 1291
 
Fahrenheit  1 Likes  
 Like     
Fahrenheit 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 3:14 PM (13 days ago)            #9
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 51829
Liked By: 39357
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 57



    

Tipsters
Championship:
 AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked: #1410
 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)
Team Ranked: #50 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
   Like     
LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 3:15 PM (13 days ago)            #10
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This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 3:16 PM



AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 BIG GUY's team
(Est. Jun 2021)
Team Ranked: #3 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 83,616,875 Total Members: 1291
 
Fahrenheit  1 Likes  
 Like     
LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 3:21 PM (13 days ago)            #11
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Posts: 100334
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Tipsters
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Player has
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This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 3:22 PM



AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 BIG GUY's team
(Est. Jun 2021)
Team Ranked: #3 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 83,616,875 Total Members: 1291
 
Fahrenheit  1 Likes  
 Like     
Fahrenheit 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 3:22 PM (13 days ago)            #12
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 51829
Liked By: 39357
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 57



    

Tipsters
Championship:
 AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked: #1410
  		quote originally posted by LONGSTER:
This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 3:22 PM


This one is who? 
 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)
Team Ranked: #50 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
   Like     
LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 3:25 PM (13 days ago)            #13
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  		quote originally posted by Fahrenheit:
This one is who? 
 



A lot of medals one



AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 BIG GUY's team
(Est. Jun 2021)
Team Ranked: #3 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 83,616,875 Total Members: 1291
   Like     
LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 3:25 PM (13 days ago)            #14
*Platinum Member*

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Posts: 100334
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  		quote originally posted by LONGSTER:



A lot of medals one



 

This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 3:26 PM



AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 BIG GUY's team
(Est. Jun 2021)
Team Ranked: #3 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 83,616,875 Total Members: 1291
   Like     
Fahrenheit 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 3:25 PM (13 days ago)            #15
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 51829
Liked By: 39357
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 57



    

Tipsters
Championship:
 AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked: #1410
 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)
Team Ranked: #50 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
   Like     
Fahrenheit 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 3:26 PM (13 days ago)            #16
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 51829
Liked By: 39357
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 57



    

Tipsters
Championship:
 AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked: #1410
 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)
Team Ranked: #50 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
 
LONGSTER  1 Likes  
 Like     
LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 3:28 PM (13 days ago)            #17
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Posts: 100334
Liked By: 61240
Joined: 30 Jun 10
Followers: 3



Tipsters
Championship:
Player has
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AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 BIG GUY's team
(Est. Jun 2021)
Team Ranked: #3 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 83,616,875 Total Members: 1291
 
Fahrenheit  1 Likes  
 Like     
Fahrenheit 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 3:28 PM (13 days ago)            #18
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 51829
Liked By: 39357
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 57



    

Tipsters
Championship:
 AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked: #1410
 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)
Team Ranked: #50 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
 
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LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 3:35 PM (12 days ago)            #19
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This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 3:35 PM



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LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 3:37 PM (12 days ago)            #20
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LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 3:44 PM (12 days ago)            #21
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LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 3:45 PM (12 days ago)            #22
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  		SLG when he was a kid



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Fahrenheit 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 3:45 PM (12 days ago)            #23
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"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)
Team Ranked: #50 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
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LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 3:46 PM (12 days ago)            #24
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  		quote originally posted by Fahrenheit:
You wanna try?



 

This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 3:47 PM



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Fahrenheit 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 3:48 PM (12 days ago)            #25
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  		Use "Singaporean Man" instead of "Chinese Man" to generate local face, or else the person look like from PRC




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)
Team Ranked: #50 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
 
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LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 3:49 PM (12 days ago)            #26
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This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 3:49 PM



AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
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LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 3:51 PM (12 days ago)            #27
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  		quote originally posted by Fahrenheit:
Use "Singaporean Man" instead of "Chinese Man" to generate local face, or else the person look like from PRC



 

This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 3:52 PM



AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
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JOGK 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 8:01 PM (12 days ago)            #28
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  		Pools aunties so happy 😅😅😅😅😅




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LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 8:07 PM (12 days ago)            #29
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  		quote originally posted by JOGK:
Pools aunties so happy 😅😅😅😅😅




This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 8:07 PM

This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 8:08 PM



AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
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LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 8:10 PM (12 days ago)            #30
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  		quote originally posted by JOGK:
Pools aunties so happy 😅😅😅😅😅

Uncle Jogk SLG says he wana be like you
He asked u where u went
I told him u won a lot using AI now busy throwing money off the window with a lot of pretty women behind waiting

This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 8:12 PM



AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
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Team Ranked: #3 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 83,616,875 Total Members: 1291
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LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 8:17 PM (12 days ago)            #31
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  		quote originally posted by LONGSTER:

Uncle Jogk SLG says he wana be like you
He asked u where u went
I told him u won a lot using AI now busy throwing money off the window with a lot of pretty women behind waiting

This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 8:12 PM



 

This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 8:17 PM



AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
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seelangui 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 8:17 PM (12 days ago)            #32
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  		quote originally posted by LONGSTER:
SLG when he was a kid



Dog too big😂puppy



see what you want to see believe all you see
My current Mission is keep wining until S_P 斗/close shop
use main & sub method unit 1 unit= $20:
Use main bet as base the rest side bet to add on to max win or more Name it Eye jackpot system 南神眼



betting records at
http://forums.asianbookie.com/viewmessages.cfm?Forum=45&Topic=2112557

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 東方不敗
(Est. Nov 2013)
Total Members: 17
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LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 8:19 PM (12 days ago)            #33
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  		quote originally posted by seelangui:

Dog too big😂puppy



 

This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 8:20 PM



AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 BIG GUY's team
(Est. Jun 2021)
Team Ranked: #3 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 83,616,875 Total Members: 1291
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Fahrenheit 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 8:21 PM (12 days ago)            #34
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 AB$: 901,562.50
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"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)
Team Ranked: #50 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
 
LONGSTER  1 Likes  
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Fahrenheit 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 8:21 PM (12 days ago)            #35
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"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)
Team Ranked: #50 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
 
LONGSTER  1 Likes  
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LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 8:22 PM (12 days ago)            #36
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  		quote originally posted by seelangui:

Dog too big😂puppy





AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
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 BIG GUY's team
(Est. Jun 2021)
Team Ranked: #3 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 83,616,875 Total Members: 1291
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Fahrenheit 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 8:22 PM (12 days ago)            #37
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 AB$: 901,562.50
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"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)
Team Ranked: #50 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
 
LONGSTER  1 Likes  
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LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 8:22 PM (12 days ago)            #38
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  		Very chio China girl

This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 8:23 PM



AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
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seelangui 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 8:25 PM (12 days ago)            #39
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  		quote originally posted by LONGSTER:
Very chio China girl

This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 8:23 PM


😂nowadays high tech 
easier way 
 



see what you want to see believe all you see
My current Mission is keep wining until S_P 斗/close shop
use main & sub method unit 1 unit= $20:
Use main bet as base the rest side bet to add on to max win or more Name it Eye jackpot system 南神眼



betting records at
http://forums.asianbookie.com/viewmessages.cfm?Forum=45&Topic=2112557

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 東方不敗
(Est. Nov 2013)
Total Members: 17
   Like     
Fahrenheit 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 8:26 PM (12 days ago)            #40
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Posts: 51829
Liked By: 39357
Joined: 26 May 08
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Tipsters
Championship:
 AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked: #1410
 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
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Fahrenheit 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 8:27 PM (12 days ago)            #41
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"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
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LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 8:28 PM (12 days ago)            #42
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  		quote originally posted by seelangui:
😂nowadays high tech 
easier way 



 

This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 8:28 PM



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LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 8:35 PM (12 days ago)            #43
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  		quote originally posted by seelangui:
😂nowadays high tech 
easier way 



 

This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 8:35 PM



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LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 8:35 PM (12 days ago)            #44
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  		quote originally posted by LONGSTER:


 



Win until underwear also buy gold

This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 8:36 PM



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seelangui 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 8:48 PM (12 days ago)            #45
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  		quote originally posted by LONGSTER:
Win until underwear also buy gold
This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 8:36 PM

😂better



see what you want to see believe all you see
My current Mission is keep wining until S_P 斗/close shop
use main & sub method unit 1 unit= $20:
Use main bet as base the rest side bet to add on to max win or more Name it Eye jackpot system 南神眼



betting records at
http://forums.asianbookie.com/viewmessages.cfm?Forum=45&Topic=2112557

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LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 8:54 PM (12 days ago)            #46
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  		quote originally posted by seelangui:

😂better



 

This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 8:54 PM



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LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 8:56 PM (12 days ago)            #47
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  		quote originally posted by seelangui:

😂better



 

This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 8:56 PM



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LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 8:58 PM (12 days ago)            #48
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  		quote originally posted by seelangui:

😂better



 

This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 8:58 PM



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LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 9:00 PM (12 days ago)            #49
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  		quote originally posted by seelangui:

😂better



Bet until won so many units




BTO units 

This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 9:01 PM



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LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 9:04 PM (12 days ago)            #50
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  		quote originally posted by LONGSTER:

Bet until won so many units




BTO units  This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 9:01 PM



 

This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 9:04 PM



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Fahrenheit 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 9:07 PM (12 days ago)            #51
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  		Ong Ye Kung? 

 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
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seelangui 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 9:08 PM (12 days ago)            #52
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  		quote originally posted by LONGSTER:

Bet until won so many units




BTO units  This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 9:01 PM


😂surely 
 



see what you want to see believe all you see
My current Mission is keep wining until S_P 斗/close shop
use main & sub method unit 1 unit= $20:
Use main bet as base the rest side bet to add on to max win or more Name it Eye jackpot system 南神眼



betting records at
http://forums.asianbookie.com/viewmessages.cfm?Forum=45&Topic=2112557

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
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(Est. Nov 2013)
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JOGK 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 9:15 PM (12 days ago)            #53
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  		quote originally posted by LONGSTER:
This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 3:49 PM




BLACKIE?🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣




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LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 9:22 PM (12 days ago)            #54
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  		quote originally posted by seelangui:
😂surely 



 



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LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 9:23 PM (12 days ago)            #55
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  		quote originally posted by JOGK:
BLACKIE?🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣



Yes and the broom



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LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 9:24 PM (12 days ago)            #56
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  		quote originally posted by LONGSTER:



Yes and the broom



 

This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 9:26 PM



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JOGK 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 9:52 PM (12 days ago)            #57
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  		quote originally posted by LONGSTER:

  This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 9:26 PM

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/T7FCwbU6f2u1dvfX/?mibextid=oFDknk

 




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LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 10:08 PM (12 days ago)            #58
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  		quote originally posted by JOGK:
https://www.facebook.com/share/v/T7FCwbU6f2u1dvfX/?mibextid=oFDknk
 



??? Bee gees



More than a woman ?



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JOGK 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 10:11 PM (12 days ago)            #59
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  		quote originally posted by LONGSTER:



??? Bee gees



More than a woman ?

Can view? I just test 😆

 




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LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 10:23 PM (12 days ago)            #60
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  		quote originally posted by JOGK:
Can view? I just test 😆
 



Can



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LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 10:25 PM (12 days ago)            #61
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  		quote originally posted by JOGK:
Can view? I just test 😆
 



Where u went so long boh see u around



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JOGK 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 11:22 PM (12 days ago)            #62
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  		quote originally posted by LONGSTER:



Can

Ok good
because previously i cant get the facebook link to work here 😅

 




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JOGK 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 11:25 PM (12 days ago)            #63
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  		quote originally posted by LONGSTER:
Where u went so long boh see u around



Got what i was here but post lesser




 
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LONGSTER 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 11:27 PM (12 days ago)            #64
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  		quote originally posted by JOGK:



Got what i was here but post lesser



Okie I told SLG u counting money from winnings very busy to come 

This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 11:28 PM



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JOGK 		21-Apr 2024 Sunday 11:54 PM (12 days ago)            #65
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  		quote originally posted by LONGSTER:

Okie I told SLG u counting money from winnings very busy to come  This message was edited by LONGSTER on 21-Apr-2024 at 11:28 PM



he asked me to buy kkj pipe for him to smoke
😆😆😆😆😆
 




 
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LONGSTER 		22-Apr 2024 Monday 12:01 AM (12 days ago)            #66
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  		quote originally posted by JOGK:
he asked me to buy kkj pipe for him to smoke
😆😆😆😆😆
 



He Duno how to use ai to generate pictures



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JOGK 		22-Apr 2024 Monday 1:40 AM (12 days ago)            #67
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  		quote originally posted by LONGSTER:



He Duno how to use ai to generate pictures

He lying
he was the one who started ai here
Somemore he said he wanna buy ai phone

Then he told me to buy first see how
but now i using for couple of months already he still havent buy

 




 
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LONGSTER 		22-Apr 2024 Monday 7:19 AM (12 days ago)            #68
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  		quote originally posted by JOGK:
He lying
he was the one who started ai here
Somemore he said he wanna buy ai phone
Then he told me to buy first see how
but now i using for couple of months already he still havent buy
 



He won some money these few days maybe he will change his oppo phone



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JOGK 		22-Apr 2024 Monday 9:58 AM (12 days ago)            #69
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  		quote originally posted by LONGSTER:



He won some money these few days maybe he will change his oppo phone


He wont change to SAMSUNG because i am using it
because he dun want to lose to me 
He still insists his eye power is stronger
😆😆😆😆😆
 




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LONGSTER 		22-Apr 2024 Monday 10:23 AM (12 days ago)            #70
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  		quote originally posted by JOGK:
He wont change to SAMSUNG because i am using it
because he dun want to lose to me 
He still insists his eye power is stronger
😆😆😆😆😆
 



He wana combine ai and eye to vs u soon


He say post Liao win then count

Cannot only win Liao then post winners



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LONGSTER 		22-Apr 2024 Monday 10:24 AM (12 days ago)            #71
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  		quote originally posted by JOGK:
He wont change to SAMSUNG because i am using it
because he dun want to lose to me 
He still insists his eye power is stronger
😆😆😆😆😆
 



He is in r&d phase



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JOGK 		22-Apr 2024 Monday 11:03 AM (12 days ago)            #72
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  		quote originally posted by LONGSTER:



He wana combine ai and eye to vs u soon


He say post Liao win then count

Cannot only win Liao then post winners

Then why he chicken out when you asked him for challenge?
😅😅😅😅😅

 




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LONGSTER 		22-Apr 2024 Monday 11:04 AM (12 days ago)            #73
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  		quote originally posted by JOGK:
Then why he chicken out when you asked him for challenge?
😅😅😅😅😅
 



He is not ready I think worry lose no face as he is king of something

Somemore got plaque



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LONGSTER 		22-Apr 2024 Monday 1:36 PM (12 days ago)            #74
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  		This message was edited by LONGSTER on 22-Apr-2024 at 1:36 PM

This message was edited by LONGSTER on 22-Apr-2024 at 1:37 PM



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