MARKET WATCH 15th OCT 2012 - AsianBookie.Com Forums

15-Oct 2012 Monday 9:05 AM (4215 days ago)

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STI          3,042      +9      +0.30%
DOW        13,329     +3      +0.02%
S&P          1,429      -4       -0.27%
FTSE         5,793      -37      -0.63%
DAX           7,232      -50       -0.68%
GOLD         1,745      -15        -0.84%
OIL             91.07     -0.80      -0.87%
PRE-HK OPEN    -74pts

CREDIT SUISSE GLOBAL RISK APPETITE (EQUITY ONLY) : -0.35 (11th Oct 2012)
CREDIT SUISSE GLOBAL RISK APPETITE                       :   -0.45 (11th Oct 2012)

15 Oct 2012 08:53

DJ MARKET TALK: Singapore's STI May Stall; 3020-3065 Range Likely

0053 GMT [Dow Jones] Singapore's STI may stall, possibly shrugging off weakness of Wall Street Friday as players digest Chinese data at the weekend. The data were "just alright," says Song Seng Wun, head of research at CIMB. "Taken altogether--the trade numbers, the money supply and banking--show the economy stabilized," he says. "Export numbers picked up (offering) some hint of seasonal cheer. We did see stronger growth of trade with Asean countries, a mild pickup to the U.S. and a smaller contraction to Europe. Taken together, it's ok," he says, noting it provides economic planners with some comfort. Players are likely to remain a tad wary as further Chinese economic data, corporate earnings reports and a European summit are awaited. The STI ended Friday up 0.3% at 3041.75. Support is likely around 3020, while the 3045-3065 zone likely offers resistance. SPH (T39.SG) reported FY12 net profit attributable to shareholders fell 5.9% on year to S$365.5 million. Courts Asia (RE2.SG) appears set for a strong trading debut after its enlarged offering of 178 million shares at S$0.77 each was 5.6X subscribed

..

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 9:15 AM (4215 days ago)

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SYNEAR

S$0.174-SYNR.SI

 3 insiders cum-substantial shareholders owning an aggregate 50.13% of the S-Chip have offered

to delist this maker of dumplings.

 While the exit price of 18.6 cents represents only 7% premium to the last traded price, note

the stock has risen 20% in the last

 Synear’s share price was hit earlier by disclosure that some of its products had tested

positive for the staph bacteria.

 The stock has been stuck in the 13-14-cent range for a while after bottoming at 10 cents late

last year.

 Delisting requires support from at least 75% of shares, and not be voted against by 10% or

more.

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 9:17 AM (4215 days ago)

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SPH

S$4.07-SPRM.SI

 The final dividend of 17 cents (normal 9 and special

8) brings the total for the fiscal year ended Aug ’12 to

24 cents (unchanged from the year before), for a yield of 5.9%.

 This would have been a greater plus if the board had committed to a clearer dividend policy,

of say a minimum or a certain percentage of recurring earnings, even if it were to mean a lower

yield.

 Note that the $386.37 mln dividend in respect of ye

Aug ’12 already represents 94% of recurrent earnings.

 Results for ye Aug ’12 (net profit down 5.9% to

$365.54 mln) are in line with recent past, with decline

in the core newspapers / magazines business being offset by property contributions. (The latest

decline was also blamed on the drop in investment income.)

 Classified advertisements (almost 30% of display ads)

continued to decline, by 8% in the latest fiscal year.

 Contributions from the Clementi Mall have replaced Sky @ 11, adding to Paragon. (The

Seletar Mall, a 70-30 JV with UE is scheduled for completion in late calendar year 2014.)

 The 5.9% yield remains the sole reason for maintaining

BUY.

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 9:19 AM (4215 days ago)

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FINANCIAL MARKETS

 Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan expressed confidence the US housing market has “turned the

corner”. (The recovery of the US housing market is essential to the overall recovery of the US

economy. Federal Reserve’s purchase of mortgage securities has helped bring down mortgage rates,

thereby encouraging refinancing by home owners.)

 The Reuters / University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in September was its highest

level since 2007.

 JP Morgan and Wells Fargo however dropped on Friday despite better-than-expected Q3 results.

Key reason was the drop in interest margin, eg from

3.84% to 3.66% in the case of Wells Fargo. (Declining interest margins have also contributed to

the big 3

Singapore banks being stuck in broad trading range

since the Mar ’09 bottom: DBS at $11-16 and UOB

at $15-20.

 Weakness of the Finance sector caused a 0.3% drop in the S&P500 on Friday. (Dow was up a

marginal 2 points.)

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 11:55 AM (4214 days ago)

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Monday, October 15, 2012

KEY STORY

China

Consumer Page 7

Downgrade Chow Tai Fook, Emperor Watch & Jewellery and Hengdeli to SELL as sales are expected to worsen in 4Q12.

Thailand

The Senkaku Effect Page 29

We highlight the potential beneficiaries related to exports, investments, and tourism as a result of the Sino-Japanese conflict

CHINA Economics

Trade Page 3

Export growth higher than expected due to delayed seasonal effect.

Sector

Banking Page 5

September’s headline new loans disappoint but we see positives.

Consumer Page 7

Downgrade Chow Tai Fook, Emperor Watch & Jewellery and Hengdeli to

SELL as sales are expected to worsen in 4Q12.

Steel Page 10

3Q12 results preview: Possible profit taking on poor results.

Update

Hengdeli Holdings (3389 HK/SELL/HK$2.25/Target: HK$1.70) Page 12

Sales deteriorate further in 3Q12. We cut our net profit forecasts by 10-

13%. Downgrade from HOLD to SELL.

HONG KONG Update

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK/SELL/HK$9.89/Target: HK$7.10) Page 15

Sales weaken further in Jul-Sep 12; downgrade from HOLD to SELL.

Emperor Watch & Jewellery (887 HK/SELL/HK$0.76/Target: HK$0.40) Page 18

Sales deteriorate further in 3Q12; faces difficulty in adjusting its product portfolio amid sluggish luxury demand. Downgrade from BUY to SELL.

INDONESIA Sector

Banking Page 21

Aug 12 yoy loan growth softens mainly on slower working capital loan, but remains within our forecast. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.

MALAYSIA Update

Genting Plantations (GENP MK/SELL/RM8.90/Target: RM8.15) Page 23

Record high FFB production in Sep 12; expect production to peak in Oct

12. Low CPO price may partially offset the strong growth in production.

SINGAPORE Results

Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP/HOLD/S$4.07/Target: S$4.30) Page 26

4QFY12: Advertising revenue contraction widens as economy stagnates. Downgrade to HOLD. Dividend yield at 5.4% is still attractive.

	Prev Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	13328.9	0.0	(2.1)	(1.9)	9.1
S&P 500	1428.6	(0.3)	(2.2)	(2.5)	13.6
FTSE 100	5793.3	(0.6)	(1.3)	(2.1)	4.0
AS30 CSI 300	4510.1 2304.5	0.1 0.1	(0.1) 0.5	2.3 (0.5)	9.7 (1.8)
FSSTI	3041.8	0.3	(2.1)	(0.9)	14.9
HSCEI	10345.3	1.1	3.8	5.2	4.1
HSI	21136.4	0.7	0.6	2.5	14.7
JCI	4311.4	0.6	0.0	1.3	12.8
KLCI KOSPI	1653.4 1933.3	(0.1) 0.0	(0.4) (3.1)	0.6 (3.7)	8.0 5.9
Nikkei 225	8534.1	(0.1)	(3.3)	(6.8)	0.9
SET	1297.0	0.2	(1.1)	1.6	26.5
TWSE	7437.0	(0.2)	(3.2)	(3.9)	5.2
BDI	926	2.5	5.8	39.9	(46.7)
CPO (RM/mt) Nymex Crude	2293	1.5	6.1	(16.4)	(27.5)

(US$/bbl) 91 (0.7) 2.1 (7.8) (7.7)

Source: Bloomberg

Top BUYs/SELLs

Current Target Pot Company Ticker Price Price +/- (lcy) (lcy) (%)

Top BUYs

China Mobile 941 HK 84.35 100.00 18.6

Kunlun Energy 135 HK 13.82 16.80 21.6

Sinopharm 1099 HK 25.55 28.20 10.4

Multi-Purpose Hldgs MPU MK 3.65 4.20 15.1

DBS DBS SP 14.18 19.45 37.2

Krung Thai Bank KTB TB 18.30 21.75 18.9

PTT PTT TB 315.00 405.00 28.6

Top SELLs

China Merchants Hldgs 144 HK 23.60 19.60 (16.9) Tiger Airways TGR SP 0.76 0.51 (32.5)

Key Assumptions

Source: Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian

Corporate Events

Venue Beg Close

Greater China Energy Sector Kuala Lumpur 15 Oct 16 Oct

Analyst Presentation Brunei 17 Oct 17 Oct

Luk Fook Holdings International Singapore 16 Oct 17 Oct

Corporate Roadshow

Singapore Oil Service Sector Hong Kong 16 Oct 17 Oct

Analyst Presentation

BW Plantation Toronto 22 Oct 23 Oct

Corporate Roadshow

Hong Leong Industries Kuala Lumpur 25 Oct 25 Oct

Corporate Presentation

		2011	2012F	2013F
GDP (% yoy) US		1.7	1.5	1.5
Euro Zone		1.4	(0.5)	0.4
Japan		(0.8)	2.0	1.5
Singapore		4.9	2.0	3.0
Malaysia		5.1	5.0	4.7
Thailand		0.1	6.0	3.4
Indonesia		6.5	6.1	6.3
Hong Kong		5.0	1.5	3.5
China		9.3	7.6	8.0
		2011	2012F	2013F
WTI	(US$/bbl)	97.5	102	111
Aluminium	(US$/mt)	2,420	1,993	1,963
Copper	(US$/mt)	8,851	7,865	8,225
Gold Price Lon	on (US$/ounce)	1,568	1,645	1,775
Iron Ore	(USc/dmtu)	168	126	128
CPO	(US$/mt)	1,025	1,030	1,110
BDI

This message was edited by stand up n wake up on 15-Oct-2012 @ 11:57 AM

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 11:58 AM (4214 days ago)

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Regional Morning Notes

Monday, October 15, 20

THAILAND Strategy

The Senkaku Effect Page 29

We highlight the potential beneficiaries related to exports, investments, and tourism as a result of the Sino-Japanese conflict.

Update

Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF TB/BUY/Bt34.50/Target: Bt40.00) Page 31

Next year, core earnings should be good. M&A story should support share price. Upgrade to BUY.

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 12:03 PM (4214 days ago)

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Export Growth Higher Than Expected Due To Delayed Seasonal

Effect

Export growth was better than market expectations in September due to delayed export orders for the

Christmas season. But import growth remained slow on weak domestic demand. We believe export growth

will outperform import growth in the near term, given a rapid rebound in new export orders in PMI.

Net exports could reach US$204b in 2012 vs US$157.9b i

Monthly Export Volume

(US$m)

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

 In Sep 12, export growth accelerated to 9.9% yoy to US$186.4b, higher than both market

expectation of 5.0% yoy and Aug 12’s 2.7% yoy. Import growth was in line with consensus, at 2.4%

yoy (or US$158.7b), vs -2.6% yoy in Aug 12.

 Trade surplus was US$27.7b, higher than Aug 12’s US$26.7b.

Exports (USD mn, LHS) yoy% (RHS)

Source: China Customs

Monthly Import Volume

(US$m)

 After seasonal adjustment, exports rose 11.4% yoy and 10.9% mom, and imports grew 2.3% yoy

and 13.8% mom in Sep 12.

Our View

 Downside pressure on export growth still from European countries.

Export growth to the EU improved slightly in Sep 12, but still stayed in the contractionary zone

(-10.7% yoy, vs -12.7% yoy in

165,000

115,000

65,000

15,000

-35,000

-85,000

Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- J an- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul-

110%

90%

70%

50%

30%

from some European countries improved as manufacturing PMI in the euro zone rebounded from 45.1

in Aug 12 to 46.1 in Sep 12 - the readings for Germany, France and Italy went up by 0.1pt,

0.1pt and 2.1pt to 47.4, 42.7 and 45.7 respectively but the UK’s declined 1.2pt to 48.4. Overall,

we believe export growth to the EU will stay sluggish in the next few months and significant

improvement in the European economies is unlikely. For exports to the US, which became the largest

importer of Chinese products since Feb 12, the growth was relatively stable at 5.5% yoy in Sep 12

(3.0% yoy in Aug 12), given its healthier economy than the EU countries (manufacturing PMI of the

US remained strong at 51.5 in Sep 12, and unemployment reached a 4-year low at 7.8% in early-Oct

12). Meanwhile, we believe China’s exports will be supported by emerging countries. Export

growth to ASEAN, Russia and Brazil soared

2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012

Imports (USD mn, LHS) yoy% (RHS)

Source: China Customs

Monthly Trade Surplus Volume

(US$m)

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

-10,

25.5% yoy, 22.3% yoy and 13.7% yoy in Sep 12 respec

 More measures to help China’s export industries. The government recently introduced several

measures to support the export sector: a) remove administrative fees for exporters (this will lower

cost by Rmb3.5b per year), b) speed up the pace of export tax rebate for small businesses (from 20

working days to 15 working days), and c) increase export credit insurance for small/medium-sized

exporters. We believe these measures will partially offset the slowdown in China’s export growth in

the medium term. In Oct 12, we believe export growth could hit 9.2% yoy, given the rebound in new

export orders (from 46.6 in Aug 12 to 48.8 in Sep 12).

 Domestic demand still weak but we saw a gradual recovery in Sep

12. Imports index from the PMI went up 0.7pt to 47.7 in Sep 12, partially due to rising demand

for the long Golden Week holidays. The government has sped up approvals of a series of

investment projects in

early-Sep 12 to stabilise economic growth. The local governments also

announced they would spend over Rmb20t in the next 3-10 years on urban development and

infrastructural improvement projects. Once they can solve the financing issue, these projects

will provide long-term support to China’s economic growth. In the near term, monetary easing

will remain an important tool to boost domestic demand via lower borrowing cost. We believe

both the current and new leaders will continue with the existing policies to maintain steady

economic growth.

Trade surplus (USD mn)

Source: China Customs

Sub-indices Of Trading Terms In PMI

(%)

-2

-4

-6

Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12

New export orders (LHS) Imports (LHS)

New export orders mom% (RHS) Imports mom% (RHS)

Source: CFLP

Analyst

Fan Zhang

+8621 5404 7225 ext 817 [email protected]

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Regional Morning Notes

Monday, October 15, 2012

Meanwhile, the local media recently reported that land purchase activities have increased rapidly

since 3Q12 (land transfer income soared 123.8% qoq in 10 major cities in 3Q12), indicating property

investment could recover in the medium term. Thus, the re-stocking process in the property sector

will bring tailwinds for overall demand. In Oct 12, imports could grow 3.2% yoy.

 The renminbi will stay stable against the US dollar due to the coming presidential election

in the US. The renminbi has appreciated about 1% in the last eight weeks to Rmb6.285/US$ in end-Sep

12 due to a softened US dollar given the introduction of QE III and political pressure from the US

government. In the medium term, we believe the Rmb/US$ exchange rate will remain stable. The

People’s Bank of China is unlikely to allow the renminbi to depreciate too much, given the risks of

more capital outflow. We believe the Rmb/US$ rate will stay at the current levels in the next few

months (to about Rmb6.30/US$ at end-12).

Exports And Imports

Sep 12 ------------------------ Exports ---------------------------

------------------------ Imports ------------------------

US$m % of

yoy % chg mom %

chg

Total 186,349.51 - 9.9%

4.7% 158,680.48 - 2.4% 4.9% EU

28,229.40 15.1% -10.7% -5.4%

17,769.52 11.2% -5.1% -8.7% US

31,768.23 17.0% 5.5% 2.5%

10,702.69 6.7% 5.5% 1.0% Hong Kong

29,266.33 15.7% 31.7% 3.4% 1,593.37

1.0% 13.8% -9.6% ASEAN 18,344.79

9.8% 25.5% 15.5% 17,727.72 11.2%

-0.6% 8.0% Japan 13,906.17 7.5%

2.2% 12.7% 16,178.28 10.2% -9.6%

4.4% Korea 7,975.56 4.3%

3.4% 8.4% 16,150.37 10.2% 9.0%

16.2% India 4,515.96 2.4% -3.5%

2.6% 1,138.86 0.7% -31.5% -13.8%

Taiwan 3,437.58 1.8% 11.5%

21.3% 13,223.48 8.3% 19.9% 7.1% Russia

4,323.56 2.3% 22.3% 1.5%

3,430.73 2.2% -3.9% 7.0% Brazil

3,294.56 1.8% 13.7% 13.3%

4,698.70 3.0% -14.2% 0.9% Australia

3,602.47 1.9% 15.0% 15.3% 6,851.73

4.3% -18.0% -10.0% Canada 2,603.09

1.4% 10.1% 0.9% 1,751.56 1.1%

4.6% 9.7%

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Banking – China

September’s Headline New Loans Disappoint But We See

Positives

Although September’s new loans were lower than market expectations, we see signs of possible

economic recovery as there were continual improvements in the loan mix and pick-up in M1 and M2

growth. With 9M12 new loans reaching 84% of our full-year forecast, we see upside to our 2012 loan

target of Rmb8t. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. ICBC remains our preferred pick and we recommend

accumulating on pullback.

What’s New

Regional Morning Notes

Monday, October 15, 2012

MARKET WEIGHT

(Maintained)

Sector Update

Top Sector Picks

Company Rec Target Share Price Price (HK$) (HK$)

ABC BUY 3.60 3.22

ICBC BUY 5.00 4.96

Source: UOB Kay Hian

Price Chart

AGRICULTURAL BANK OF CHINA-H

 September’s new loans below expectation. The PBOC announced new loans of Rmb623.2b in

September, lower than market expectations of Rmb700b. We attribute the disappointment mainly to an

overly aggressive new loan expectation as the September new loans were still on track to meet our

full-year target of Rmb8t. Despite disappointment in the headline numbers, we see positives with

continual improvement in loan mix with the clampdown on bills financing and recovering M1 and M2

growths. New deposits were Rmb1.66t, significantly higher than August’s on the back of quarter-end

effects, which lowered the system’s loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) to 68.4%, 0.6ppt lower than that of

August.

(lcy)

4.00

3.50

3.00

2.50

2.00

800

600

400

200

Volum e (m )

Agricultural Bank Of China-H/HSI Index

(%)

130

120

110

100

 Improving M1 and M2 growth. M1 and M2 grew 7.3% and 14.8% yoy in September, up by 2.8ppt and

1.3ppt mom respectively. The significant growth in M1 and M2 was attributable to a) quarter-end

effects b) the preparation of the Golden Week; and c) a low-base effect as growth

Oct 11 Dec 11 Feb 12 Ap r 12 Jun 12 Aug 12

Source: Bloomberg

Price Chart

IND & COMM BK OF CHINA-H

(lcy)

(%)

slowed down immensely in Sep 11. Although the recovery in M1 and M2 growth may be due to

seasonality, we are cautiously optimistic on the economic recovery on the back of the

better-than-expected September export data.

Action

 ICBC as our preferred pick; recommend accumulating on pullback.

We hold the view that banks’ share prices will trade in a range-bound

pattern as concerns on NIM and asset quality remain. We prefer banks that are more defensive and

offer higher yields. ICBC is our preferred

6.00

5.50

5.00

4.50

4.00

3.50

6000

4000

2000

Volum e (m )

Ind & Comm Bk Of China-H/HSI Index

140

130

120

110

100

pick in the sector on the back of its stronger capital and better NPL trend. We recommend

accumulating on pullback after the recent rally.

Essentials

 Healthier loan mix as mid- to long-term loans continued to increase.

Of the Rmb623.2b new loans in September, Rmb287b were mid-to-long- term loans, representing 46%

of total new loans, the highest since

January’s 47.6%. Corporate mid-to-long-term new loans increased

slightly mom but was offset by the mom decline in long-term household loans, likely due to a

decline in personal mortgage lending. Given the weaker home sales recently, we are likely to see

long-term household loan growth decelerating in the coming months.

Peer Comparison

Oct 11 Dec 11 Feb 12 Ap r 12 Jun 12 Aug 12

Source: Bloomberg

Analysts

Edmond Law

+852 2826 4837 [email protected]

Christopher Chan

+852 2826 1351 [email protected]

Price Target Net Profit PE

P/B ROE Market Yield

Company Rec 12 Oct 12 Price 2011 2012F 2013F 2011 2012F 2013F

2011 2012F 2013F 2012F Cap 2012F (HK$) (HK$) (Rmbm) (Rmbm) (Rmbm)

(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (%) (US$m) (%)

ICBC BUY 4.96 5.00 208,265 224,823 225,433 6.7

6.2 6.2 1.5 1.3 1.1 21.7 214,315 5.6

CCB HOLD 5.76 5.60 169,258 186,289 183,088 6.6

6.2 6.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 21.3 184,310 5.6

ABC BUY 3.22 3.60 121,927 140,219 145,328 6.9

6.0 5.8 1.3 1.1 1.0 20.1 129,593 5.8

BOC HOLD 3.07 2.90 124,182 129,488 128,707 5.6

5.4 5.4 1.0 0.9 0.8 16.9 118,168 6.5

BoCom SELL 5.7 4.75 51,226 52,639 52,322 5.6

5.4 5.5 1.0 0.9 0.8 18.0 52,608 3.7

CMB SELL 14.42 12.00 36,129 39,717 39,225 7.0

6.3 6.4 1.5 1.3 1.1 22.0 36,344 3.9

Minsheng HOLD 6.65 6.75 27,920 31,547 31,318 5.1

4.7 4.9 1.1 0.9 0.8 21.6 25,694 5.3

Source: Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 12:07 PM (4214 days ago)

#10

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Sunny Side Up: Singapore Press Holdings - Yield Still Attractive; Buy, TP
$4.50 | Singapore 3Q 2012 GDP (Advanced Estimate): Singapore Surprises

What’s cooking

Singapore Press Holdings: Yield Still Attractive; Buy, TP $4.50

SPH SP | Mkt Cap USD5.31b | ADTV USD9.8m

Ø SPH announced its FY8/12 results, which were broadly in line with market
expectations. Top line registered a 1.8% yoy growth while core earnings
increased by 0.3% yoy. Maintain BUY with target price of SGD4.50, based on
SOTP valuation.
Ø SPH’s property segment will be the main growth engine for the whole
group in our view and we believe there is still upside from property
rental income for FY13.
Ø Full year dividends of 24cents are the same as last year. We expect
25cents dividends for FY13 implying 6.2% dividends yield at current price
of SGD4.07, which in our view is still very attractive compared with
government bond.
Click here for full report
[email protected]
Economics

Singapore 3Q 2012 GDP (Advanced Estimate): Singapore Surprises
Ø Singapore's advanced 3Q 2012 real GDP shrank -1.5% annualised QoQ and
grew sluggishly by +1.3% YoY. However, 2Q 2012 real GDP were revised to
+0.2% annualised QoQ and +2.3% YoY from -0.7% annualised QoQ and +2.0% YoY
reported previously.
Ø As the economy averted technical recession, Monetary Authority of
Singapore (MAS) maintains its policy of modest and gradual appreciation of
the SGD NEER policy band.
Ø Official growth forecast for 2012 remains at 1.5%-2.5%. We are looking
at growth of 2.1% in 2012 and 3.8% in 2013.
Click here for full report
[email protected]

Roadshows & events
Regional

19 Oct
SG Marketing
SGX Investor luncheon post results
22 Oct
HK Marketing
SP Setia
29 – 30 Oct
SG Marketing
SP Setia
30 Oct
HK NDR
OSIM International
9 Nov
UK NDR
OSIM International
12-16 Nov
UK/US Marketing
Thai/Phil Strategy

Forthcoming results
15-Oct
K-Green Trust | K-REIT Asia | M1
16-Oct
Keppel T&T
17-Oct
Ascendas REIT | Keppel Land | Qian Hu
18-Oct
Keppel Corp | Mapletree Logistics Trust | Nera Telecom | Sabana REIT
| Singapore Exchange
19-Oct
CapitaMall Trust

Visited last week*
Company
Initial Impression
Analyst
China Minzhong
Positive
Wei Bin
Ley Choon
Positive
Alison
Pan United
Positive
Stephanie
Sound Global
Negative
Wei Bin
KSH Holdings
Positive
Alison

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 12:13 PM (4214 days ago)

#11

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 12:15 PM (4214 days ago)

#12

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 12:15 PM (4214 days ago)

#13

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MARKET PULSE: CRCT, SPH 15 Oct 2012 KEY IDEA CapitaRetail China Trust: China retail is growing alright Summary: According to Cushman & Wakefield, among major Chinese cities, Beijing has the most retail space on a per capita basis. However, even with the projected growth from ~0.58 sqm to ~0.73 sqm by 2013, Beijing’s retail space per capita will still be half that of HK’s, which is at 1.4 sqm. As explored in our report dated 28 Jun, we believe that CRCT’s malls in Beijing, where four of its nine malls are located, have good locations and will do well despite the overall growth in retail space supply. Recent news reports regarding increased inventory pile-ups for certain retailers have caused some people to doubts official retail sales figures. Our analysis shows that while more companies are facing revenue contractions, revenues are climbing overall. Companies should be able to support continued rental increases. We maintain our BUYrating on CRCT and our fair value of S $1.70. (Sarah Ong) MORE REPORTS Singapore Press Holdings: Shrinking print margins a concern Summary: Singapore Press Holding (SPH) reported FY12 PATMI of S$365.5m (EPS: 23 S-cents), which fell 5.9%, mostly due to lower print and investment income, offset by contributions from the Clementi Mall. This is mostly in line with our forecast (2.4% below) but somewhat below consensus (by 5.1%). Management recommended a final dividend of 17 S-cents, cumulating to 24 S-cents (or S$387m) for FY12 - which was above FY12 PATMI and our expectations - though below FY12 recurring EBITDA. We note that pretax margins for the print segment fell further to 33.3% in FY12 from 35.9% in FY11, due to higher staff costs and distribution costs from subscription drives. We believe shrinking margins highlight increasing uncertainties for the core print business, though an attractive dividend yield of 5.9% likely points to limited price downside here. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged fair value estimate of S$4.05. We would turn buyer around S$3.90. (Eli Lee) For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.comfor the detailed report. NEWS HEADLINES - The S&P 500 Index fell 0.30% to 1,428.59 on Friday as worries over the Eurozone outweighed an unexpected rise in US consumer confidence. The Dow finished gained only 0.02% to close at 13,328.85. - Guocoland posted 1Q13 PATMI of S$9.0m, versus a loss attributable to owners of S$12.8m a year ago. Revenue climbed 67% to S$181.6m. - Synear Food Holdings has proposed to voluntarily delist the company with an exit offer of S$0.186 cash per share. - AVIC International Investments has entered into a conditional sale and purchase agreement dated to acquire the entire issued share capital of Deltamarin Oy, for an aggregate consideration of €32.1m (~S$50.8m). - Nam Cheong Limited and its wholly-owned subsidiary have established a S$200m Multicurrency Medium Term Note Programme.

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 12:16 PM (4214 days ago)

#14

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Today's Headline

F&N's property arm in the spotlight

The $1.4 billion offer lodged out of the blue for Fraser & Neave's (F&N)
hospitality business last week has focused the market's attention on the
conglomerate's wider property division.

The offer from Overseas Union Enterprise for Frasers Hospitality includes a
20 per cent premium to the asset value, which was assessed at about $1.17
billion as at June 30.

This includes serviced apartments such as Fraser Place Singapore and Fraser
Suites Beijing, as well as other buildings across the world.

Frasers Hospitality has been expanding aggressively, growing into one of
the leading Asian brands in the sector. It is expected to own or manage 73
properties in 39 cities, with more than 12,200 apartments, by 2014. Frasers
Hospitality is also enlarging its footprint in the Middle East. Yet Frasers
Hospitality is just 14 per cent of F&N's property business, which has a
total asset value of $8.2 billion as at June 30, as reported by the firm.

F&N's property arm, Frasers Centrepoint, has a large presence in a range of
property sectors.

F&N鈥檚 investment properties, meanwhile, make up $1.57 billion, or 19 per
cent of total assets. They come under the firm鈥檚 Frasers Centrepoint Asset
Management and Frasers Centrepoint Malls. They include stakes in local and
overseas non-real estate investment trust (Reit) properties such as
Robertson Walk, The Centrepoint and Changi City Point.

There are two Frasers Centrepoint-linked Reits - Frasers Centrepoint Trust,
with a portfolio of shopping malls like Bedok Point and Causeway Point, and
Frasers Commercial Trust, which consists of office buildings such as China
Square Central here, and others in Australia and Japan. Frasers
Centrepoint's stake in the assets is valued at $1.04 billion, making up 13
per cent of the firm's property assets.

News Buzz

路 Singapore Press Holdings: Reports net profit of $365.5m
路 Avic International: Acquire Finland ship design firm

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 12:18 PM (4214 days ago)

#15

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Today’s Focus

• Golden Agri Resources - Highest correlation to CPO

price, fair value S$0.73

STI’s recent rise above 3100 proved unsustainable. A lacklustre upcoming 3Q earnings season and uncertain forward growth; the upcoming November US Presidential Election and the year- end fiscal cliff; plus the approach of the year-end lull dissuade investors from being gung-ho and tempt profit taking given

the stock market’s run-up over the past 4 months. Technically, while a minor rebound is seen off 3010-3020, it is likely capped at 3050-3088 before a subsequent decline towards

2950.

DBSV Research issues an Equity Explorer report on Golden Agri

Resources (GGR), the largest listed Indonesian planter and most liquid plantation counter in Singapore, with a fair value

of S$0.73. GGR is still in expansionary mode, with CPO output forecast to increase by 6% CAGR between 2011 and 2014; supported by an average oil palm tree age of 12 years and c.71k ha of new maturities over the next 3 years. Within our universe, GGR has the highest correlation to CPO price. We believe any recovery in CPO prices is an opportunity to trade GGR. Longer term, acquisitions of land bank and downstream distribution network overseas may boost GGR’s fair value beyond our current estimates.

Malaysia revamps CPO policy following a cabinet meeting on

12 Oct 12. Effective 1 Jan13, the following will apply:

1. Duty-free export quota will be scrapped

2. CPO export tax will be set between 4.5% and 8.5%, incrementally rising on a sliding scale

3. Increase biodiesel blending percentage from 5% to 10%

4. Provide incentives to replant old, unproductive oil palm trees

The new export tax structure is still c.1-1.5% lower than the initial proposal, and will have negative impact on upstream planters (as they will still receive lower ASP vis-à-vis before the change). The announcement however did not mention how

the government intends to address the issue of record palm oil inventory in the interim. We believe there may not be any

spare storage capacity. If nothing is done, we suspect planters

Trader’s Spectrum Team – 6533 9688 / 6398 7955 / 6398 7970

This message was edited by stand up n wake up on 15-Oct-2012 @ 12:21 PM

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 12:22 PM (4214 days ago)

#16

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Singapore

Wired Daily

will start to slow down their harvesting activities to conserve cash. Overall, these changes is negative for upstream but positive for refiners. For SGX-listed CPO related stocks, Wilmar and Mewah could see 9-21%% upside to earnings. Our analyst has left forecasts unchanged for now, pending details of monthly price adjustments and reactions from various industry players to the proposed changes.

FY12 net profit for SPH declined 6%, marginally below expectations. Final and special dividend of 17Scts was declared, brings FY12 dividend to 24Scts, similar to FY11. Ad revenue growth is expected to remain lackluster on an uncertain economic outlook; FY13-14F earnings trimmed 3-

5%. Maintain Hold for 5.9% yield, TP stays at S$4.01.

Stratech Systems has entered into a partnership with Bayanat Airports Engineering & Supplies Co LLC (Bayanat) for its iFerret intelligent Airfield/Runway Surveillance and Foreign Object & Debris (FOD) Detection System in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Under the deal, Bayanat will market, sell and deploy iFerret in the UAE market. With this expansion into UAE, Stratech hopes that there could be future opportunities to

extend the partnership to the other parts of the rapidly- developing Middle East market.

United Food Holdings warned of a loss in its third quarter results, citing rising soybean costs as a result of a US drought that affected its supplies.

The non-oil domestic export (NODX) figure for Sep12 due this week may bring some respite after a streak of poor economic numbers in recent months. The headline number is expected to register a 2.5% YoY rise after a massive 10.6% drop in the previous month. On the sequential basis, our economist is looking for a rebound of about 5-6% MoM sa after a 9.1% plunge in the previous month.

According to the IMF, growth across Asia and Pacific has "slowed markedly" and that "Asia's growth is unlikely to pick up in the second half of 2012" as previously expected. There is now a one in seven chance of Asia's growth falling below

4% in 2013 - close to the rate last observed in 2009, the year after the Lehman shock.

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 12:22 PM (4214 days ago)

#17

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Co mp an y CDW Holdings	D. O . T . 12-Oct-12	B u y / Sell Share Buy -Back	No . o f sh ares 200,000	S$ / sh r 0.0940
Global Testing Corporation Ltd	12-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	371,000	0.0650
HG Metal Manufacturing Ltd	12-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	1,000,000	0.0800
Hotung Inv estment Hldgs Ltd	12-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	1,706,000	0.1480
KSH Holdings Limited	12-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	127,000	0.3168
Ov erseas-Chinese Banking Corp	12-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	50,000	9.2900
Ry obi Kiso Holdings Ltd	12-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	324,000	0.1292
Saizen Real Estate Inv Trust	12-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	350,000	0.1660
Sembcorp Industries Ltd	12-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	2,000	5.5000
V iking Offshore and Marine Ltd	12-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	50,000	0.1140
CDW Holdings	11-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	150,000	0.0940
CSC Holdings Ltd	11-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	150,000	0.1150
Global Testing Corporation Ltd	11-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	49,000	0.0650
HG Metal Manufacturing Ltd	11-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	120,000	0.0800
Hotung Inv estment Hldgs Ltd	11-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	235,000	0.1480
KSH Holdings Limited	11-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	100,000	0.3150
Ov erseas-Chinese Banking Corp	11-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	50,000	9.3100
Pan-United Corporation Ltd	11-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	50,000	0.6800
Ry obi Kiso Holdings Ltd	11-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	500,000	0.1280
V iking Offshore and Marine Ltd	11-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	150,000	0.1140
CDW Holdings	10-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	200,000	0.0950
F reight Links Express Holdings	10-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	500,000	0.0670
Ov erseas-Chinese Banking Corp	10-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	50,000	9.3600
Pan-United Corporation Ltd	10-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	100,000	0.6750
Ry obi Kiso Holdings Ltd	10-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	642,000	0.1250
V iking Offshore and Marine Ltd	10-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	48,000	0.1140
F reight Links Express Holdings	09-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	500,000	0.0670
GKE International Limited	09-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	702,000	0.1579
Global Testing Corporation Ltd	09-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	210,000	0.0650
KSH Holdings Limited	09-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	300,000	0.3276
Macquarie Int'l Infra F und Ltd	09-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	250,000	0.5400
Ov erseas-Chinese Banking Corp	09-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	100,000	9.4700
Pan-United Corporation Ltd	09-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	50,000	0.6800
Ry obi Kiso Holdings Ltd	09-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	490,000	0.1232
Straco Corporation Limited	09-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	120,000	0.2604
V iking Offshore and Marine Ltd	09-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	245,000	0.1140
AEM Holdings Ltd	08-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	750,000	0.0820
CDW Holdings	08-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	250,000	0.0940
Global Testing Corporation Ltd	08-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	422,000	0.0650
Macquarie Int'l Infra F und Ltd	08-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	1,000,000	0.5365
Osim International Ltd	08-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	25,000	1.4350
Ov erseas-Chinese Banking Corp	08-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	100,000	9.4400
Ry obi Kiso Holdings Ltd	08-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	470,000	0.1234
Saizen Real Estate Inv Trust	08-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	900,000	0.1660
V iking Offshore and Marine Ltd	08-Oct-12	Share Buy -Back	150,000	0.1140

Source: SGX Masnet

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 12:23 PM (4214 days ago)

#18

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Singapore

Wired

St o c k

Tran s ac t ed

Dat e Subst ant ial Sh areh o lder/ Direc t or

B u y / Sell

/ Conv

No o f Sh ares (' 0 0 0 )

Pric e Per

Sh are $

%Is su ed Cap B ef o re Ch ange

%Is su ed Cap A f t er Ch an g e

TA Corp 04-Oct-12 Koh Wee Seng Buy 950 - 7.83 8.03

AusGroup 03-Oct-12 Australian Microcap Inv estm Sell 33330 - 6.96 0

Global Premium Hotels 03-Oct-12 Lim Chee Chong Buy 80 0.25 0.06 0.07

Stamford Ty res 03-Oct-12 Dawn Wee * Buy 21 0.33 31.53 31.54

Teckwah Industrial 03-Oct-12 Ng Noi Hinoy * Buy 2490 - 12.03 13.1

TMC Education 03-Oct-12 Chin Kon Yuen * Buy 160 0.07 16.22 16.31

TMC Education 03-Oct-12 Yeow Cheng Khim Buy 160 0.07 16.22 16.31

8Telecom In'tl 02-Oct-12 Yeo See Meng * Buy 100 0.13 2.61 2.63

J iutian Chemical 02-Oct-12 Any ang Longy u (HK) Dev * Buy 100 - 28.56 28.57

Sky One Holdings 02-Oct-12 Lau Hon Kit Sell 2000 0.33 11.44 10.8

Straco Corp 02-Oct-12 F u Xuezhang Sell 200 0.26 0.02 0

Straco Corp 02-Oct-12 Guo Qiang Sell 200 0.26 0.02 0

TA Corp 02-Oct-12 Koh Wee Seng Buy 4653 - 6.83 7.83

Teckwah Industrial 02-Oct-12 Airjet Auto-Care Buy 2490 - 12.03 13.1

Teckwah Industrial 02-Oct-12 Ho Bee Holdings * Buy 2490 - 12.03 13.1

Teckwah Industrial 02-Oct-12 Chua Thian Poh * Buy 2490 - 12.03 13.1

Trek 2000 02-Oct-12 Henn Tan * Buy 18 0.27 1.67 1.67

Blumont Group 01-Oct-12 Ng Su Ling Buy 732 0.09 3.12 3.16

M Dev 01-Oct-12 Lin Chung Ming Buy 2000 - 14.88 14.98

M Dev 01-Oct-12 V alue Capital Asset Mgt Sell 10020 - 10.51 9.99

Sri Trang Agro-Ind 01-Oct-12 Prasit Panidkul Sell 300 0.64 0.53 0.5

Stamford Ty res 01-Oct-12 Dawn Wee * Buy 104 0.33 31.49 31.53

Stamford Ty res 01-Oct-12 Wee Kok Wah Buy 104 0.33 16.2 16.24

Stamford Ty res 01-Oct-12 Wee Kok Wah Buy 21 0.33 16.24 16.25

Sunpower Group 01-Oct-12 Artur J urczakowski Buy 200 - 7.08 7.02

TA Corp 01-Oct-12 Koh Wee Seng Buy 4800 - 5.8 6.83

TMC Education 01-Oct-12 Chin Kon Yuen * Buy 10 0.07 16.21 16.22

TMC Education 01-Oct-12 Yeow Cheng Khim Buy 10 0.07 16.21 16.22

Trek 2000 01-Oct-12 Henn Tan * Buy 22 0.25 1.66 1.67

F raser & Neav e 28-Sep-12 M&G Inv estment F d 1 * Sell 5422 - 6.33 5.95

F raser & Neav e 28-Sep-12 M&G Global Basics F d Sell 5000 - 6.09 5.74

F raser & Neav e 28-Sep-12 MAGIM, M&G Ltd, M&G Grp * Sell 8502 - 7.03 6.44

K-Reit Asia 28-Sep-12 Lor Bak Liang * Buy 8 1.2 0 0

TA Corp 28-Sep-12 Koh Wee Seng Buy 400 - 5.71 5.8

TMC Education 28-Sep-12 Chin Kon Yuen * Buy 1 0.07 16.21 16.21

TMC Education 28-Sep-12 Yeow Cheng Khim Buy 1 0.07 16.21 16.21

Trek 2000 28-Sep-12 Henn Tan Buy 39 0.25 1.64 1.66

*Deemed Interest

Source: Business Times; SA: Share Allotment; ST: Share Transfer, B/R: Bonus/Rights Issue; OE: Option Exercise; PL: Placement Shares

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 12:24 PM (4214 days ago)

#19

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Co mp an y J TC S$200M4.826%N121024	T y p e ENTITL.	Part ic u lars REDEMPTION SGD 1	Ex Dat e 15-Oct-12
J TC S$200M4.826%N121024	INTEREST	240412 - 231012 4.826%	15-Oct-12
UNITED OV ERSEAS AUSTRALIA LTD	DIV IDEND	UNF RANKED,DRP AUD 0.005	15-Oct-12
GLOBAL PREMIUM HOTELS LIMITED	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.002 ONE-TIER TAX	16-Oct-12
GUOCOLAND LIMITED	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.05 ONE-TIER TAX	18-Oct-12
CHINA MERCHANTS HLDGS(PACIF IC)	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.0275 ONE-TIER TAX	19-Oct-12
GUOCOLEISURE LIMITED	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.02	22-Oct-12
CORDLIF E GROUP LIMITED	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.018 ONE-TIER TAX	24-Oct-12
ELLIPSIZ LTD	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.0016 ONE-TIER TAX	24-Oct-12
BRITISH & MALAYAN TRUSTEES LTD	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.027 TAX EXEMPT	29-Oct-12
KARIN TECHNOLOGY HLDGS LIMITED	DIV IDEND	HKD 0.071	29-Oct-12
BOARDROOM LIMITED	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.02 ONE-TIER TAX	30-Oct-12
SIN GHEE HUAT CORPORATION LTD.	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.02 ONE-TIER TAX	30-Oct-12
AUSGROUP LIMITED	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.0036 ONE-TIER TAX	31-Oct-12
AUSGROUP LIMITED	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.0064 ONE-TIER TAX	31-Oct-12
GEMS TV HOLDINGS LIMITED	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.0095	31-Oct-12
K1 V ENTURES LIMITED	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.005 ONE-TIER TAX	31-Oct-12
KIAN ANN ENGINEERING LTD	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.0082 ONE-TIER TAX	31-Oct-12
RYOBI KISO HOLDINGS LTD.	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.003 ONE-TIER TAX	31-Oct-12
TIONG WOON CORP HOLDING LTD	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.004 ONE-TIER TAX	31-Oct-12
AMTEK ENGINEERING LTD	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.022 ONE-TIER TAX	01-Nov -12
ASL MARINE HOLDINGS LTD	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.0175 ONE-TIER TAX	01-Nov -12
PERTAMA HOLDINGS LIMITED	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.0152 ONE-TIER TAX	01-Nov -12
SINGAPURA F INANCE LTD	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.06 ONE-TIER TAX	01-Nov -12
SPINDEX INDUSTRIES LIMITED	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.018 ONE-TIER TAX	02-Nov -12
CHOSEN HOLDINGS LIMITED	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.0066 ONE-TIER TAX	05-Nov -12
CHUAN HUP HOLDINGS LIMITED	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX	05-Nov -12
EPICENTRE HOLDINGS LIMITED	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.006 ONE-TIER TAX	05-Nov -12
F J BENJ AMIN HOLDINGS LTD	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX	05-Nov -12
HUPSTEEL LTD	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.005 ONE-TIER TAX	05-Nov -12
EU YAN SANG INTERNATIONAL LTD	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX	06-Nov -12
EU YAN SANG INTERNATIONAL LTD	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX	06-Nov -12
L.C.DEV ELOPMENT LTD	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.005 ONE-TIER TAX	06-Nov -12
LION TECK CHIANG LTD	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX	06-Nov -12
LUM CHANG HOLDINGS LIMITED	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.0125 ONE-TIER TAX	06-Nov -12
MEMSTAR TECHNOLOGY LTD.	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.0005 ONE-TIER TAX	06-Nov -12
MICRO-MECHANICS (HOLDINGS) LTD	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.02 ONE-TIER TAX	06-Nov -12
OLAM INTERNATIONAL LIMITED	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.04 ONE-TIER TAX	06-Nov -12
PARKSON RETAIL ASIA LIMITED	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.03 ONE-TIER TAX	06-Nov -12
SILV ERLAKE AXIS LTD	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.008 ONE-TIER TAX	07-Nov -12
PEC LTD.	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.025 ONE-TIER TAX	08-Nov -12
ACE ACHIEV E INF OCOM LIMITED	DIV IDEND	CNY 0.003	09-Nov -12
CH OF F SHORE LTD	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.02 ONE-TIER TAX	12-Nov -12
CH OF F SHORE LTD	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.02 ONE-TIER TAX	12-Nov -12
PCI LTD	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.03 ONE-TIER TAX	15-Nov -12
TEE INTERNATIONAL LIMITED	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.0125 ONE-TIER TAX	20-Nov -12
NX09100W 190601	INTEREST	2.50%	22-Nov -12
NX11100X 210601	INTEREST	2.25%	22-Nov -12
DATAPULSE TECHNOLOGY LIMITED	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX	26-Nov -12
DATAPULSE TECHNOLOGY LIMITED	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX	26-Nov -12
SUNRIGHT LTD	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.002 ONE-TIER TAX	26-Nov -12
KHONG GUAN F LOUR MILLING LTD	DIV IDEND	SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX	03-Dec-12
<font face="Arial" siz

This message was edited by stand up n wake up on 15-Oct-2012 @ 12:27 PM

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 12:25 PM (4214 days ago)

#20

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Wired Daily

Mon Tu es Wed Th u Fri

1 2 3 4 5

Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A Electronics Sector Index Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B Purchas ing Managers Index Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E

8 9 10 11 12

Singapore Pres s 4Q12

GDP (annualized) (QoQ) Foreign Reserves GDP (YoY)

15 16 17 18 19

K-Green Trust 3Q12 Keppel T&T 3Q12 As cendas REIT 2Q13 Flextronics Int'l 2Q13 Capitamall Trust 3Q12

K-REIT As ia 3Q12 Keppel Land 3Q12 Keppel Corp 3Q12

M1 3Q12 Qian Hu Corp 3Q12 Mapletree Logis tics 2Q13

Nere Tel 3Q12

Electronic Exports (YoY) Singapore Exchange 1Q13

Non-oil Domestic Exports (YoY) Sabana Shari'ah 3Q12

Monthly Property Sales Data Non-oil Domestic Exp SA (MoM) Retail Sales (YoY) Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A Retail Sales Ex Auto (YoY) Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B Retail Sales (MoM) sa Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E

22 23 24 25 26

Raffles Medical Group 3Q12 Ascott Residence 3Q12 Cache Logis tic 3Q12 As cendas Inda 2Q13

CapitaRetial China 3Q12 EOC 4Q12 CapitaCommercial Trust 3Q12

Mapletree Industrial 2Q13 Fras ers Centrrepoint Trust 4Q12 CapitaMalls Asia 3Q12

Osim International 3Q12 China Merchants 3Q12

Fras ers Commercial 4Q12

Mapletree Commercial Trus t 2Q13

NOL 3Q12

CPI (MOM) - NSA Indus trial Production MoM SA CPI (YoY) Indus trial Production YoY

29 30 31

CDL Hos pitality 3Q12 Indofood Agri 3Q12

SIA Engineering 2Q13 Tuan Sing 3Q12

UOI 3Q12

Credit Card Bad Debts

Credit Card Billings

Bank Loans & Advances (YoY) M1 Money Supply (YoY)

M2 Money Supply (YoY) Unemployment Rate (sa)

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 12:27 PM (4214 days ago)

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CAPITARETAIL CHINA TRUST | BUY

15 Oct 2012

CHINA RETAIL IS GROWING ALRIGHT

- Beijing can absorb more retail space
- Overall retail sales growth
- Support for continued rental hikes

According to Cushman & Wakefield, among major Chinese cities, Beijing has the most retail space on a per capita basis. However, even with the
projected growth from ~0.58 sqm to ~0.73 sqm by 2013, Beijing’s retail space per capita will still be half that of HK’s, which is at 1.4 sqm. As
explored in our report dated 28 Jun, we believe that CRCT’s malls in Beijing, where four of its nine malls are located, have good locations and will
do well despite the overall growth in retail space supply. Recent news reports regarding increased inventory pile-ups for certain retailers have
caused some people to doubt official retail sales figures. Our analysis shows that while more companies are facing revenue contractions, revenues
are climbing overall. Companies should be able to support continued rental increases. We maintain our BUYrating on CRCT and our fair value of S
$1.70.

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 12:29 PM (4214 days ago)

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CHINA RETAIL IS GROWING ALRIGHT

• Beijing can absorb more retail space

• Overall retail sales growth

• Support for continued rental hikes

BUY (maintain)

Fair value S$1.70 add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.10 versus: Current price S$1.52

12m total return forecast 18%

Room for more retail space

According to Cushman & Wakefield, among major Chinese cities, Beijing has the most retail space on a per capita basis. However, even with the projected growth from ~0.57 sqm to ~0.73 sqm over 2010-2013, Beijing’s retail space per capita will still be half that of HK’s, which is at

1.4 sqm. As explored in our report dated 28 Jun, we believe that CRCT’s malls in Beijing, where four of its nine malls are located, have good locations and will do well despite the overall growth in retail space supply.

Golden Week numbers

The Mid-Autumn Festival (30 Sep) this year coincided with the seven- day Golden Week holiday (1 Oct-7 Oct) to give an eight-day break. It has been reported that overall retail sales in China grew 15% to reach RMB800.6b during the National Day holiday. In comparison, overall retail sales grew by 17.5% YoY during the seven-day Golden Week last year. The 15% YoY growth rate this year may have been distorted slightly upwards by the longer holiday period.

Reconciling media news with sales growth

Recent news reports regarding increased inventory pile-ups for certain retailers have caused some people to doubt official retail sales figures, e.g. official figures show that China's retail sales rose 13.2% YoY in Aug. To get a better picture, we compared 36 consumer companies’ revenue growth for 1HCY12. We have organized nine subsectors by order of descending growth: Alcoholic beverages (+25%), Department stores (+22%), Snack foods and beverages (+17%), TCM (+16%),

Analysts

Sarah Ong (Lead) ● +65 6531 9678 [email protected]

Kevin Tan ● +65 6531 9810

[email protected]

Key information

Market cap. (m) S$1,050.7 / USD859.0

Avg daily turnover (m) S$0.6 / USD0.5

Avg daily vol. (m) 0.5

52-wk range (S$) 1.11 - 1.53

Free float (%) 60.4

Shares o/s. (m) 691.2

Exchange SGX BBRG ticker CRCT SP Reuters ticker CRCT.SI ISIN code AU8U GICS Sector Financials GICS Industry REITs

Top shareholder CapitaLand Ltd. -

19.5%

Relative total return 1m 3m 12m

Company (%) 6 17 39

STI-adjusted (%) 5 14 24

Price performance chart

Shar e Pr i ce (S$ ) Index Level

Supermarkets (+11%), Dairy products (+9%), Fashion and apparel (+8%), Eateries (+6%), Home appliances (+3%). On an average basis, we estimate that retail sales grew by 13% YoY in 1HCY12. More companies (8) reported YoY shrinkage of revenue in 1HCY12 versus the two previous periods, 2HCY11 (3) and 1HCY11 (2). Essentially, while more companies are facing revenue contractions, revenues are climbing overall. Companies should be able to support continued rental increases.

Maintain BUY

We maintain our BUY rating on CRCT and our fair value of S$1.70.

1.88

1.72

1.55

1.39

1.22

1.06

Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr -12 Jul -12

Fair Val ue CRCT SP FSSTI

Sources: Bloomberg, OIR estimates

4400

4000

3600

3200

2800

2400

Key financial highlights

Year Ended Dec 31 (S$m) FY10 FY11 FY12F FY13F Gross revenue 119.0 131.9 151.0 160.8

Property operating expenses -41.8 -46.1 -50.2 -53.2

Net property income 77.2 85.8 100.7 107.6

Income available for distribution 52.2 57.2 65.5 68.6

DPU per share (S cents) 8.4 8.7 9.5 9.9

Cons. DPS (S cts) na na 9.5 9.8

DPU yield (%) 5.5 5.7 6.2 6.5

P/NAV (x) 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1

ROE (%) 15.4 14.2 9.7 7.1

Net income margin (%) 94.1 91.4 60.2 41.6

Industry-relative metrics

P er c ent i l e

0t h 25t h 50t h 75t h 100t h

M k t C ap B et a R OE P E

P B

C ompany I ndus t r y A v er age

Note: Industry universe defined as companies under identical GICS classification listed on the same exchange.

Sources: Bloomberg, OIR estimates

Please refer to important disclosures at the back of this document. MICA (P) 035/06/2012

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 12:32 PM (4214 days ago)

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Exhibit 2: Revenue growth of Chinese consumer companies, YoY (%)

1HCY12 2HCY11 1HCY11 2HCY10 1HCY10 2HCY09 1HCY09 2HCY08

Supermarkets Beijing Hualian Hypermarket	10%	10%	11%	15%	9%	6%	8%	14%
New Huadu Supercenter Co Ltd	15%	24%	36%	42%	39%
Wumart Stores Inc	7%	13%	19%	21%	18%	19%	22%
Average	11%	16%	22%	26%	22%	12%	15%	14%
Department stores
Beijing Hualian Department Store Co Ltd	61%	11%	-22%	30%	64%	26%	1%	-71%
Golden Eagle Retail Group Ltd	16%	28%	35%	33%	32%	32%	28%
Intime Department Store Group Co Ltd	20%	31%	42%	41%	52%	28%	29%
New World Department Store China Ltd	22%	33%	66%	30%	6%	12%	1%	33%
Parkson Retail Group Ltd	6%	13%	15%	11%	9%	10%	11%
Springland International Holdings Ltd	7%	18%	23%	29%
Average	22%	22%	27%	29%	33%	21%	14%	-19%
Fashion and apparel
361 Degrees International Ltd	26%	24%	29%
Daphne International Holdings Ltd	29%	35%	24%	13%	15%	4%
Li Ning Co Ltd	-10%	-7%	-5%	15%	11%	19%	32%
Shanghai Metersbonwe Fashion & Accessories Co Ltd	21%	24%	50%	46%	39%	20%	11%
Youngor Group Co Ltd	-2%	-29%	0%	31%	-6%	22%	5%	47%
Zhejiang Semir Garment Co Ltd	-17%	16%	37%
Average	8%	11%	22%	26%	15%	16%	16%	47%
Home appliances
GOME Electrical Appliances Holding Ltd	-22%	15%	20%	17%	22%	6%	-18%
Gree Electric Appliances Inc	20%	22%	60%	58%	25%	32%	-20%	-5%
Qingdao Haier Co Ltd	6%	10%	18%	39%	51%	104%	12%	-7%
Suning Appliance Co Ltd	7%	26%	23%	27%	32%	29%	5%	12%
Average	3%	18%	30%	35%	33%	43%	-5%	0%
Eateries
Ajisen China Holdings Ltd	-9%	-6%	40%	42%	27%	14%
Beijing Xiangeqing Co Ltd	14%	31%	36%
China Quanjude Group Co Ltd	13%	38%	31%	9%	14%	3%	14%	40%
Average	6%	21%	36%	26%	20%	9%	14% <

This message was edited by stand up n wake up on 15-Oct-2012 @ 12:33 PM

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 12:34 PM (4214 days ago)

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OCBC Investment Research

Singapore Equities

Company financial highlights

Income statement Year Ended Dec 31 (S$m)	FY10	FY11	FY12F	FY13F
Gross revenue	119.0	131.9	151.0	160.8
Property operating expenses	-41.8	-46.1	-50.2	-53.2
Net property income	77.2	85.8	100.7	107.6
Manager's mgmt fees, trust operating costs	-7.1	-7.4	-8.2	-8.5
Net finance costs	-11.3	-10.5	-11.2	-11.1
Gain/(loss) from FX and cash flow hedges	1.5	-2.0	0.0	0.0
Revaluation gain on invstmt properties	84.2	95.9	38.2	0.0
Total return before tax	144.5	161.9	119.6	88.0
Total return after tax	112.0	120.5	90.9	66.8
Income avail. for distribution	52.2	57.2	65.5	68.6

Balance sheet As at Dec 31 (S$m)	FY10	FY11	FY12F	FY13F
Investment properties	1,215.1	1,440.6	1,489.0	1,499.2
Properties under development	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Cash (including restricted cash)	39.9	70.1	49.7	54.1
Total assets	1,274.5	1,536.3	1,564.2	1,580.1
Debt	400.9	432.6	432.6	432.6
Provision for taxation	103.4	110.1	116.7	123.7
Total liabilities	521.8	603.0	627.7	640.4
Unitholders' funds	734.5	913.8	916.4	919.1
Minority interests	18.1	19.4	20.0	20.5
Total equity and liabilities	1,274.5	1,536.3	1,564.2	1,580.1

Cash flow statement Year Ended Dec 31 (S$m)	FY10	FY11	FY12F	FY13F
Profit before taxation	112.0	120.5	90.9	66.8
Adjustments	-35.9	-37.7	-30.7	7.9
Change in working capital	3.9	5.4	8.5	3.0
Cash flow from operating activities	72.6	74.9	39.9	56.5
Cash flow from investing activities	-6.3	-78.7	-9.9	-9.8
Cash flow from financing activities	-51.7	33.0	-50.4	-42.3
Change in cash	14.5	29.2	-20.4	4.4
Effect of exchange rate changes	-0.6	1.0	0.0	0.0
Cash at beginning of period	26.0	39.9	70.1	49.7
Cash at end of period	39.9	70.1	49.7	54.1

Key rates & ratios FY10 FY11 FY12F FY13F

DPU per share (S cents) 8.4 8.7 9.5 9.9

NAV per share (S$) 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3

PER (x) 8.2 8.3 11.6 15.8

P/NAV (x) 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1

NPI margin (%) 64.9 65.1 66.7 66.9

Net income margin (%) 94.1 91.4 60.2 41.6

Gross gearing (%) 31.5 28.2 27.7 27.4

DPU yield (%) 5.5 5.7 6.2 6.5

ROE (%) 15.4 14.2 9.7 7.1

ROA (%) 9.0 8.6 5.9 4.3

Sources: Company, OIR forecasts

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 12:37 PM (4214 days ago)

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Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP)

4QFY12: A Larger Advertising Revenue Contraction

Newspaper AR contraction widened to 5.7% yoy in 4QFY12 from 1.3% yoy in

3QFY12, in line with a stagnating local economy. As share price performance is closely tied to AR growth, we downgrade SPH from BUY to HOLD with our target price cut by 4% to S$4.30. While share price is likely capped by a weak AR growth, SPH still offers an attractive annual dividend yield, projected at

5.4% for FY13-15. Entry price is S$3.80.

4QFY12 Results

Year to 31 Aug 4QFY12 FY12 4QFY12 FY12

(S$m) (S$m) yoy % Chg Remarks on 4QFY12

Turnover 310.2 1,272.9 (2) 2 Newspaper AR -5.7% yoy

(3QFY12: -1.3%), Property rental +13% yoy

EBITDA 110.0 512.9 (17) (2) Newsprint cost US$654/t

(3QFY12: US$677/t) Pre-tax Profit 103.8 441.7 (7) (3) Staff cost +6% yoy.

Tax (17.5) (72.3) 15 (1) MI (2.1) (3.8) 507 (179)

Regional Morning Notes

Monday, October 15, 2012

HOLD

(Downgraded)

Company Results

Share Price S$4.07

Target Price S$4.30

Upside +5.7%

(Previous TP S$4.50)

Company Description

SPH is Singapore’s largest print media group. It also owns Paragon and Clementi shopping malls.

Stock Data

GICS sector Consumer Discretionary Bloomberg ticker: SPH SP Shares issued (m): 1,595.3

Market cap (S$m): 6,492.9

Net Profit 84.2 365.5 (12) (6)

Source: SPH, UOB Kay Hian

Results

• Final DPS maintained at 17 S cents despite a 6% decline in net profit.

Core earnings, excluding investment income, were flat. FY12 DPS was

24 S cents, same as FY11’s. This implies an annual dividend yield of

5.9%.

• A larger newspaper advertising revenue contraction in 4QFY12.

Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) reported a 6% fall in net profit for FY12. This was primarily due to lower investment income. 4QFY12 net profit of

S$84.2m was 12% lower yoy. In tandem with Singapore’s slowing GDP

growth, 4QFY12 newspaper advertising revenue (AR) registered a greater contraction of 5.7% yoy than 3QFY12’s 1.3% yoy. 4QFY12’s revenue display ads declined by 3.9% yoy (3QFY12: +2.9% yoy) while revenue from classified ads shrunk by 9.3% yoy (3QFY12: -9.0% yoy).

Market cap (US$m): 5,316.4

3-mth avg daily t'over (US$m): 9.8

Price Performance (%)

52-week high/low S$4.12/S$3.62

1mth 3mth 6mth 1yr YTD

1.8 2.0 4.6 10.0 10.3

Major Shareholders %

None

FY13 NAV/Share (S$) 1.39

FY13 Net Debt/Share (S$) 0.32

Price Chart

• Newsprint cost per tonne continues to fall. 4QFY12 total newsprint cost dipped by 6% yoy. SPH’s average newsprint charge-out (which lags newsprint spot prices by six months) has been declining sequentially.

4QFY12’s US$654/tonne was lower than 3QFY12’s US$667/tonne and

2QFY12’s US$690/tonne.

(lcy)

4.40

4.20

4.00

3.80

3.60

SINGAPORE PRESS HOLDINGS LTD Singapore Press Holdings Ltd/FSSTI Index

(%)

110

100

Key Financials

Year to 31 Aug (S$m) 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F

Net turnover 1,251 1,273 1,293 1,313 1,352

EBITDA 516 485 467 458 456

Operating profit 439 407 387 376 372

3.40

3.20

Volum e (m )

Net profit (rep./act.) 389 366 352 343 340

Net profit (adj.) 389 366 352 343 340

EPS (S$ cent) 24.1 22.7 21.8 21.3 21.1

PE (x) 16.9 17.9 18.6 19.1 19.3

P/B (x) 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1

EV/EBITDA (x) 13.7 14.6 15.2 15.4 15.5

Dividend yield (%) 5.9 5.9 5.4 5.4 5.4

Net margin (%) 31.1 28.7 27.2 26.1 25.1

Net debt/(cash) to equity (%) 4.3 22.4 25.1 26.3 27.6

Interest cover (x) 13.0 19.9 18.7 18.3 18.2

ROE (%) 17.4 16.3 15.8 15.7 15.7

Consensus net profit - - 388 397 408

UOBKH/Consensus (x) - - 0.91 0.86 0.83

Source: SPH, Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian

Oct 11 Dec 11 Feb 12 Ap r 12 Jun 12 Aug 12

Source: Bloomberg

Analyst

Nancy Wei

+65 6590 6628 [email protected]

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 12:39 PM (4214 days ago)

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Regional Morning NoteMonday, October 15, 2012

Profit & Loss Year to 31 Aug (S$m)	2012	2013F	2014F	2015F	Balance Sheet Year to 31 Aug (S$m)	2012	2013F	2014F	2015F
Net turnover	1,273	1,293	1,313	1,352	Fixed assets	363	313	261	207
EBITDA	485	467	458	456	Other LT assets	2,702	2,741	2,770	2,799
Deprec. & amort.	78	80	82	84	Cash/ST investment	781	761	779	796
EBIT	407	387	376	372	Other current assets	212	275	280	289
Total other non-operating income	60	60	60	60	Total assets	4,057	4,090	4,089	4,091
Associate contributions	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)	ST debt	3	3	3	3
Net interest income/(expense)	(24)	(25)	(25)	(25)	Other current liabilities	361	396	407	422
Pre-tax profit	442	421	410	406	LT debt	1,280	1,280	1,280	1,280
Tax	(72)	(69)	(67)	(66)	Other LT liabilities	88	88	88	88
Minorities	(4)	0	0	0	Shareholders' equity	2,242	2,240	2,228	2,214
Net profit	366	352	343	340	Minority interest	83	83	83	83
Net profit (adj.)	366	352	343	340	Total liabilities & equity	4,057	4,090	4,089	4,091
Cash Flow Year to 31 Aug (S$m)	2012	2013F	2014F	2015F	Key Metrics Year to 31 Aug (%)	2012	2013F	2014F	2015F
Operating	71	39	67	66	Profitability
Pre-tax profit	442	421	410	406	EBITDA margin	38.1	36.1	34.9	33.7
Tax	(82)	(69)	(67)	(66)	Pre-tax margin	34.7	32.6	31.3	30.1
Deprec. & amort.	78	80	82	84	Net margin	28.7	27.2	26.1	25.1
Working capital changes	7	(28)	6	7	ROA	9.2	8.6	8.4	8.3
Non-cash items	6	(10)	(10)	(10)	ROE	16.3	15.7	15.4	15.3
Other operating cashflows	(379)	(355)	(355)	(355)
Investing	(245)	(98)	(88)	(88)	Growth
Capex (growth)	(28)	(30)	(30)	(30)	Turnover	1.8	1.5</fon

This message was edited by stand up n wake up on 15-Oct-2012 @ 12:39 PM

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 12:44 PM (4214 days ago)

#27

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The FSSTI edged higher by 9.09 pt to 3,041.75, in line with most Asian markets’ performance, after US jobless claims fell more than expected, and China and Japan agreed to hold talks over a territorial dispute that has disrupted trade between Asia’s two biggest economies. Wilmar International gained

3.6% to S$3.17 after it extended and refinanced parts of its multi-tranche financing, which comprised a US$1.3b term loan and a A$600m revolving credit that was sealed in 2010. In the broader market, gainers managed to outpace losers by 214 to

166 with total trading value at S$1.16b.

US markets finished the trading session mixed, with the DJIA

up 0.02% to 13,329 and the S&P 500 index declined 0.3% to

1,429. Investors mulled an unexpected jump in US consumer sentiment to its highest level in five years against worries from US banks.st Weekly Watch - BUYing opportunities for CapitaLand and Ho Bee. We have a cautious outlook in the near term and forecast volumes will slow down by 20-30% and prices will fall

8-10% this year. However, over the long term, we believe the new policies support a stable and prudent property market.

Singapore Press Holdings - 4QFY12: Advertising revenue contraction widens as economy stagnates. Downgrade to HOLD. Dividend yield at 5.4% is still attractive.

We see weak AR growth capping share price performance, but this is compensated by an attractive dividend yield of 5.4%. In today’s global anaemic growth and low interest-rate environment, yield stocks still find favour among investors…

Source: NextView

Can FSSTI close the gap completely?

• In the last trading session, the FSSTI appears to attempt to close the gap created on 10 Oct 12. We expect the index to edge higher as RSI appears to turn up after hitting close to a reading of 40. The index has an immediate resistance at

3,065, while support could be found at 3,020/2,970. We maintain the following support and resistance levels on the longer horizon.

Support: 2,970

Resistance: 3,140

In the last trading session…

• The FSSTI gained 9.1 pt and opened lower at 3,027.9. The intraday range was from 3,027.9 to 3,049.1.

• Within the FSSTI 30 stock components, Wilmar (+3.6%)

and JMH (+2.7%) led the gainers while Sembcorp Industries (-

1.6%) and Comfort Delgro (-1.2%) lost ground.

• Regional bourses ended higher…

HSI (+0.7%) closed at 21,136.4

SSEC (+0.1%) closed at 2,104.9

ASX (+0.1%) closed at 4,510.1

15 October Retail Sales Ex Auto

15 October Electronic Exports

17 October Non-oil Domestic Exports

17 October Automobile COE Open Bid

23 October CPI

Source: Bloomberg

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 12:46 PM (4214 days ago)

#28

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 Knee-jerk reaction to new MAS measures on the residential property segment presents buying opportunities for property stocks.

 Measures will curb short-term demand but long-term outlook is stable.

 Improved sales by CapitaLand should make for a better

2H12 performance.

 More upside for Ho Bee with pick-up in its office and residential businesses.

 China’s 3Q12 GDP release and the EU Summit are the key events this wee

Last week…

The US unemployment rate of 7.8% in September was met with skepticism. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank downgraded global growth forecasts on the back of three main worries – the European debt crisis, the year-end US fiscal cliff and China’s slowdown.

Singapore escaped a technical recession as 2Q12 GDP

growth was revised to 0.2% qoq. Advance estimate for 3Q12

GDP growth was -1.5% qoq. The MAS maintained its policy stance. As our property team had predicted, new measures were introduced for residential properties in Singapore. These included a cap of 35 years for home loans and lower loan-to-value ratios.

Looking ahead…

Knee-jerk reaction to new MAS measures presents buying opportunities. We believe the new measures imposed by the MAS will hurt short-term demand for residential properties. The reduction in affordability will impact the mass-market especially. We have a cautious outlook in the near term and forecast volumes will slow down by 20-30% and prices will fall 8-10% this year. However, over the long term, we believe the new policies support a stable and prudent property market. As such, we view any negative short-term reaction to property developer stocks as a good buying opportunity. CapitaLand and Ho Bee are our top BUYs.

China issues its report card and another EU Summit goes underway. We can expect everyone to zoom in on China’s 3Q12 GDP figure this week. Analysts are expecting a weaker growth, in line with the soft landing widely expected this year. Should the figure come in low, we may see another round of stimulus from the government before this month ends. Meanwhile, the main agenda at the EU Summit should be the progress in Greece and Spain’s sit

CapitaLand Ho Bee Last price S$3.16 S$1.44

Target price S$3.70 S$1.86

Potential upside 17.1% 29.2%

Support S$3.11/2.97 S$1.40

Resistance S$3.48 S$1.70DJIA O: 13,610.2 C: 13,328.8 Chg: -2.1% HSI O: 21,012.4 C: 21,136.4 Chg: +0.6% FSSTI O: 3,107.9 C: 3,041.8 Chg: -2.1%

*Economic Calendar*
			Period
	15/10	US Retail Sales	Sep
		CN CPI, PPI	Sep
		SG Retail Sales	Aug
	16/10	US CPI, Industrial Production	Sep
	17/10	US Housing Starts	Sep
		SG Non-Oil Domestic Exports	Sep
	18/10	US Philadelphia Fed Survey	Oct
		CN Real GDP	3Q12
		CN Industrial Prod’n, Retail Sales	Sep
	19/10	US Existing Home Sales	Sep

Source: Bloomberg, Government websites

Source: Bloomberg

**Weekly Wrap-Up and Week Ahead videos are available on-line for your viewing. Please refer to our Research page on UTRADE.COM.SG.

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 12:48 PM (4214 days ago)

#29

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Stocks Alert

CapitaLand (CAPL SP, C31) – Better 2H12 performance

Last price: S$3.16

Target Price: S$3.70

CapitaLand has always been one of our top picks. Its residential property sales in China are picking up and selling prices have risen 4-5%. Its project in Chongqing is the single biggest investment in China by any Singapore developer to-date and it is progressing as planned. In Singapore, CapitaLand will be redeveloping Somerset Grand Cairnhill and we expect a net profit contribution when it is sold back to Ascott Residence Trust in 2017. Gearing is comfortable at 0.41x with cash of S$5.1b as at 2Q12, which provides an opening for more acquisition opportunities. Finally, we view the appointment of Mr Lim Ming Yan as the new CEO favourably. His immense experience in China will strengthen CapitaLand’s positioning in China’s property market. Maintain BUY and target price of S$3.70, pegged at a 15% discount to our RNAV/share.

Technically, the stock could be trending higher towards S$3.48 should it be well supported above S$3.11 and above its key support level at S$2.97.

Source: Nextview

Ho Bee Investment (HOBEE SP, H13) – More upside ahead

Last price: S$1.44

Target Price: S$1.86

We have upgraded our target price for Ho Bee three times this year and the share price has done extremely well. We see more upside ahead with leasing interest in its upcoming office site, The Metropolis, picking up. On the residential side, interest in the high-end segment is also showing signs of pick-up with recent launches seeing good response from buyers. Its net gearing is low at 0.26x, implying a strong balance sheet, and we expect it go down even further. Management has also been actively buying back shares in the last two years, signaling they find the stock of deep value. Ho Bee is trading at a very attractive P/B of 0.6x, vs its long-term mean of 0.9x, implying a potential 50% price upside. Maintain BUY. Our target price is S$1.86, which is at a 30% discount to our RNAV/share.

We also place Ho Bee on a technical BUY. The stock could rebound towards S$1.70 should it be well supported at S$1.40. Stops could be placed at S$1.38. At the moment, the stock appears to be consolidating. Our technical target of S$1.50 on 4

Sep 12 has been achieved.

Source: Nextview

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 12:49 PM (4214 days ago)

#30

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Sinwa: Chairman fined S$153,000 for insider trading.

Sinwa executive chairman Sim Yong Teng has been fine

Stock Price (S$) Chg (%) Volume (‘000)

S$153,000 for insider trading among other things and

disqualified from holding directorships for three years from yesterday. As a result, he resigned from the following positions in Sinwa: executive chairman, director and member of its nominating committee. (Source: The Business Times)

Avic International: Acquires Finland ship design firm.

China-based maritime group Avic Inteernational Investments

Golden Agri-Resources	0.645	1.6	70,722
Noble Group	1.320	2.3	46,440
Thai Beverage	0.400	(2.4)	36,921
Wilmar International	3.170	3.6	32,228
Hutchison Port Holdings Trust	0.790	0.0	27,509

plans to have a major ship designing arm, announcing its proposed acquisition of Finland-incorporated Deltamarin Oy.

Top Gainers

Stock Price (S$) Chg (%) Volume (‘000)

Although the proposed transaction is for the full acquisition of Deltamarin for 32.1m euros from a list of vendors, Avic will end

up with a 79.57% stake in Deltamarin as the remaining stake of 20.43% will go to re-investing vendors under a share consideration. (Source: The Business Times)

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 12:50 PM (4214 days ago)

#31

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Singapore Press Holdings - 4QFY12: Advertising revenue contraction widens as economy stagnates. Downgrade to

HOLD. Dividend yield at 5.4% is still attractive.

(SPH SP/HOLD/S$4.02/Target: S$4.30) FY12F PE (x): 18.6

FY13F PE (x): 19.1

Final DPS maintained at 17 S cents despite a 6% decline in net profit. Core earnings, excluding investment income, were flat. FY12 DPS was 24 S cents, same as FY11’s. This implies an annual dividend yield of 5.9%. A larger newspaper advertising revenue contraction in 4QFY12. Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) reported a 6% fall in net profit for FY12. This was primarily due to lower investment income. 4QFY12 net profit of S$84.2m was 12% lower yoy. In tandem with Singapore’s slowing GDP growth,

4QFY12 newspaper advertising revenue (AR) registered a greater contraction of 5.7% yoy than 3QFY12’s 1.3% yoy. 4QFY12’s revenue display ads declined by 3.9% yoy (3QFY12: +2.9% yoy) while revenue from classified ads shrunk by 9.3% yoy (3QFY12:

-9.0% yoy). Newsprint cost per tonne continues to fall. 4QFY12 total newsprint cost dipped by 6% yoy. SPH’s average newsprint charge-out (which lags newsprint spot prices by six months) has been declining sequentially. 4QFY12’s US$654/tonne was lower than 3QFY12’s US$667/tonne and 2QFY12’s US$690/tonne.Full-year impact from Clementi Mall. In FY12, property rental income rose by S$23.5m (+14% yoy) to S$191.4m. The Clementi Mall registered a rental revenue increase of S$18.6m (+100.6% yoy) on the back of a full-year’s operations. Paragon’s rental revenue increased by S$4.6m (+3.1% yoy) to S$78.7m as a result of higher rental rates achieved. SPH’s latest Seletar Mall - currently under construction - will be completed by end-14.

Downgrade to HOLD; limited share price upside mitigated by attractive dividend yield at 5.9%. We have downgraded SPH from BUY to HOLD. Traditionally, SPH’s share price has a close relationship with its newspaper AR growth. We see weak AR growth capping share price performance, but this is compensated by an attractive dividend yield of 5.4%. In today’s global anaemic growth and low interest-rate environment, yield stocks still find favour among investors

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 12:54 PM (4214 days ago)

#32

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Morning Buzz

Monday, 15 October 2012

AmFraser Research Team

www.amfraser.com.sg

STI Index (previous day Close) TODAY’S HEADLINE

3,041.75 (0.30%)

Source: Bloomberg

MAJOR STOCK INDICES

DJ Ind Avg 13,328.85 0.02% S & P 500 1,428.59 -0.30% Nasdaq Comp 3,044.12 -0.17% Hang Seng 21,136.43 0.65% Vol (mil) 1,695.0

Val (S$ mil) 1,165.8

Source: Bloomberg

COMMODITIES

Gold (SPOT) US$ 1,744.15 -0.59% Oil (NYMEX WTI) 91.24 -0.67% Baltic Dry 926.00 2.55% CPO 737.25 -2.51%

Source: Bloomberg

EXCHANGE RATES

USD : SGD 1.2255 / MYR : SGD 0.3998 / HKD : SGD 0.1578

Source: Bloomberg

INTEREST RATES

3-mth Sibor 0.381%

SGS (10yr) 1.319%

Source: Bloomberg

F&N'S PROPERTY ARM IN THE SPOTLIGHT

The $1.4 billion oﬀer lodged out of the blue for Fraser & Neave's (F&N) hospitality business last week has focused the market's aƩenƟon on the conglomerate's wider property division.

The oﬀer from Overseas Union Enterprise for Frasers Hospitality includes a 20 per cent premium to the asset value, which was assessed at about $1.17 billion as at June 30.

This includes serviced apartments such as Fraser Place Singapore and

Fraser Suites Beijing, as well as other buildings across the world.

Frasers Hospitality has been expanding aggressively, growing into one of the leading Asian brands in the sector. It is expected to own or manage 73 properƟes in 39 ciƟes, with more than 12,200 apartments, by 2014. Frasers Hospitality is also enlarging its footprint in the Middle East. Yet Frasers Hospitality is just 14 per cent of F&N's property business, which has a total asset value of $8.2 billion as at June 30, as reported by the firm.

F&N's property arm, Frasers Centrepoint, has a large presence in a range of property sectors.

F&N’s investment properƟes, meanwhile, make up $1.57 billion, or

19 per cent of total assets. They come under the firm’s Frasers

Centrepoint Asset Management and Frasers Centrepoint Malls. They

include stakes in local and overseas non‐real estate investment trust

(Reit) properƟes such as Robertson Walk, The Centrepoint and

Changi City Point.

There are two Frasers Centrepoint‐linked Reits ‐ Frasers Centrepoint Trust, with a porƞolio of shopping malls like Bedok Point and Causeway Point, and Frasers Commercial Trust, which consists of oﬃce buildings such as China Square Central here, and others in Australia and Japan. Frasers Centrepoint's stake in the assets is valued at $1.04 billion, making up 13 per cent of the firm's property assets.

NEWS BUZZ

 Singapore Press Holdings: Reports net profit of $365.5m

 Avic InternaƟonal: Acquire Finland ship design firm

AmFraser Securities Pte Ltd 1

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 12:55 PM (4214 days ago)

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AmFraser Monday, 15 October 2012

News Buzz

Singapore Press Holdings (S$4.07)

Reports net profit of $365.5m

Singapore Press Holdings posted a 5.9% drop in earnings aƩributable to shareholders to $365.5mil for fiscal 2012, as investment income declined and the core print business stagnated amid a challenging economy. Revenue dip 1% to

$1bil for the year while EPS stood at 23 cents. It has proposed a normal dividend of 9 cents and a special dividend of 8 cents. Investment income, which was impacted by volaƟlity in the financial markets, fell 35.3% to $32.6mil.

According to CFO Tony Mallek, the bulk of the company's roughly $1bil invesƟble fund is invested in cash and short‐term securiƟes.

Avic InternaƟonal (S$0.19)

Acquires Finland ship design firm

China‐based mariƟme group Avic InternaƟonal Investments has proposed to acquire Finland‐incorporated Deltamarin Oy. The transacƟon is for the full acquisiƟon of Deltamarin for 32.1mil euros ($50.8mil) from a list of vendors, Avic will end up with a 79.57% stake in Deltamarin as the remaining stake of 20.43% will go to reinvesƟng vendors under a share consideraƟon.

The deal involves Avic first acquiring 4,650 shares or 100% of Deltamarin, to be held by a special purpose vehicle (SPV) to be set up. Avic will pay the vendors some 26mil euros in cash for 3,700 Deltamarin shares or a stake of 79.57%. The remaining 6.1mil euros for 950 Deltamarin shares will be paid through the issue of shares in the SPV to reinvesƟng vendors, with the laƩer ending up with a 20.43% stake.

Source: The Business Times

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15-Oct 2012 Monday 12:57 PM (4214 days ago)

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AmFraser Monday, 15 October 2012

Corporate AcƟon

Dividend

Results Company Ann Date Period				DPS	Ex-Date	Book Close	S hare Price Yield Payable 15-Oct-12 (%)
K1 Ventures	17-Jul-12	FY12	SGD	0.0050	31-Oct-12	2-Nov-12	14-Nov-12	SGD	0.131	3.8
Olam Int'l	28-Aug-12	FY12	SGD	0.0400	6-Nov-12	8-Nov-12	20-Nov-12	SGD	1.950	2.1
PEC	23-Aug-12	FY12	SGD	0.0250	8-Nov-12	12-Nov-12	26-Nov-12	SGD	0.720	3.5

* Include Ordinary, Cash, Special, Bonus, Variable and Base

Forex USD	1.258
Forex HKD	6.170
Forex CNY	5.023
Forex THB	24.396

Rights & Bonus Issue

Right Trading Period

Company	Rights Particulars	Ex-Date	Book Close
				From	To
Sing Investments & Finance	1 Rts : 2 @ S$1.20	12-Oct-12	16-Oct-12	-	-
China Paper Holdings	1 Rts : 1 @ S$0.036	8-Oct-12	10-Oct-12	-	-
Source: SGX Annoucement

Company

Bonus I ssue

Ex-Date

Book Close Credit

Listing

Ezra Hldgs Div in Specie

1 Triyards Shares : 10 Ezra shares

9-Oct-12

11-Oct-12 17-Oct-12

18-Oct-12

Source: SGX Annoucement

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