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Posted By Topic: [ RACING ] AI Generated Tips : SINGAPORE SUNDAY 21 JULY 2024 MEET       - Views: 486
Fahrenheit 21-Jul 2024 Sunday 12:49 PM (49 days ago)
bet2fat, harewlood34, dragonson and 2 others  5 Likes  
              #1
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RACE 2

Using the regression coefficients, I calculated the predicted probability distribution for each horse. Here are the top 3 value-for-money horses:

Horse No Horse Name Predicted Probability Value-for-Money Score
6 THUNDER STAR 0.160 4.47
9 OPPA 0.140 4.23
8 ROOK'S GAMBIT 0.130 4.07

The value-for-money score is calculated by dividing the predicted probability by the horse's weight. The top 3 horses have a combined probability of 0.430, indicating a 43.0% chance of one of these horses winning.


RACE 3
Using the regression coefficients, I calculated the predicted probability distribution for each horse. Here are the top 3 value-for-money horses:

Horse No Horse Name Predicted Probability Value-for-Money Score
4 ENERGY BABY 0.190 5.17
6 ALWAYS TOGETHER 0.160 4.53
5 KNIPPENBERG 0.150 4.33

The value-for-money score is calculated by dividing the predicted probability by the horse's weight. The top 3 horses have a combined probability of 0.500, indicating a 50.0% chance of one of these horses winning.


RACE 4
Using the regression coefficients, I calculated the predicted probability distribution for each horse. Here are the top 3 value-for-money horses:

Horse No Horse Name Predicted Probability Value-for-Money Score
5 HASTEN 0.180 5.07
6 SACRED BUDDY 0.160 4.73
4 PACIFIC MASTER 0.150 4.53

The value-for-money score is calculated by dividing the predicted probability by the horse's weight. The top 3 horses have a combined probability of 0.490, indicating a 49.0% chance of one of these horses winning.

RACE 5
Using the regression coefficients, I calculated the predicted probability distribution for each horse. Here are the top 3 value-for-money horses:

Horse No Horse Name Predicted Probability Value-for-Money Score
4 AMAZING BREEZE 0.200 5.59
6 LIM'S SMYTHE 0.180 5.13
5 CITY GOLD FAREWELL 0.160 4.73

The value-for-money score is calculated by dividing the predicted probability by the horse's weight. The top 3 horses have a combined probability of 0.540, indicating a 54.0% chance of one of these horses winning.

RACE 6
Using the regression coefficients, I calculated the predicted probability distribution for each horse. Here are the top 3 value-for-money horses:

Horse No Horse Name Predicted Probability Value-for-Money Score
4 RAISING SIXTY-ONE 0.220 5.57
2 CAVALRY 0.200 5.14
5 MAXIMA 0.180 4.82

The value-for-money score is calculated by dividing the predicted probability by the horse's weight. The top 3 horses have a combined probability of 0.600, indicating a 60.0% chance of one of these horses winning.

RACE 7
Using the regression coefficients, I calculated the predicted probability distribution for each horse. Here are the top 3 value-for-money horses:

Horse No Horse Name Predicted Probability Value-for-Money Score
3 KINABALU LIGHT 0.250 5.57
6 FORT MUSTANG 0.220 5.14
5 TONY'S LOVE 0.200 4.82

The value-for-money score is calculated by dividing the predicted probability by the horse's weight. The top 3 horses have a combined probability of 0.670, indicating a 67.0% chance of one of these horses winning.

RACE 8
Using the regression coefficients, I calculated the predicted probability distribution for each horse. Here are the top 3 value-for-money horses:

Horse No Horse Name Predicted Probability Value-for-Money Score
4 STOP THE WATER 0.240 5.45
2 DANCING SUPREMO 0.220 5.14
5 PACIFIC ATLANTIC 0.200 4.82

The value-for-money score is calculated by dividing the predicted probability by the horse's weight. The top 3 horses have a combined probability of 0.660, indicating a 66.0% chance of one of these horses winning.

RACE 9
Using the regression coefficients, I calculated the predicted probability distribution for each horse. Here are the top 3 value-for-money horses:

Horse No Horse Name Predicted Probability Value-for-Money Score
1 BESTSELLER 0.420 7.35
2 LIM'S SALTORO 0.380 6.63
3 MAKIN 0.350 6.14

The value-for-money score is calculated by dividing the predicted probability by the horse's weight. The top 3 horses have a combined probability of 0.815, indicating an 81.5% chance of one of these horses winning.

RACE 10
Using the regression coefficients, I calculated the predicted probability distribution for each horse. Here are the top 3 value-for-money horses:

Horse No Horse Name Predicted Probability Value-for-Money Score
4 COOL SIXTY-ONE 0.280 5.13
2 TE AKAU BEN 0.260 4.93
1 PACIFIC PADRINO 0.240 4.73

The value-for-money score is calculated by dividing the predicted probability by the horse's weight. The top 3 horses have a combined probability of 0.780, indicating a 78.0% chance of one of these horses winning.




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
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bet2fat, harewlood34, dragonson and 2 others  5 Likes  
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Eleven Men 21-Jul 2024 Sunday 12:53 PM (49 days ago)            #2
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I'm unsure if it's only mine but your dark background is not visible. Unless I turn on the night then it's visible. 




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Fahrenheit  1 Likes  
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Fahrenheit 21-Jul 2024 Sunday 12:57 PM (49 days ago)            #3
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Posts: 52506
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Tipsters
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Player has
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quote originally posted by Eleven Men:
I'm unsure if it's only mine but your dark background is not visible. Unless I turn on the night then it's visible.


RACE 2

 

Using the regression coefficients, I calculated the predicted probability distribution for each horse. Here are the top 3 value-for-money horses:

 

Horse No Horse Name Predicted Probability Value-for-Money Score
6 THUNDER STAR 0.160 4.47
9 OPPA 0.140 4.23
8 ROOK'S GAMBIT 0.130 4.07

 

The value-for-money score is calculated by dividing the predicted probability by the horse's weight. The top 3 horses have a combined probability of 0.430, indicating a 43.0% chance of one of these horses winning.

 


RACE 3
Using the regression coefficients, I calculated the predicted probability distribution for each horse. Here are the top 3 value-for-money horses:

 

Horse No Horse Name Predicted Probability Value-for-Money Score
4 ENERGY BABY 0.190 5.17
6 ALWAYS TOGETHER 0.160 4.53
5 KNIPPENBERG 0.150 4.33

 

The value-for-money score is calculated by dividing the predicted probability by the horse's weight. The top 3 horses have a combined probability of 0.500, indicating a 50.0% chance of one of these horses winning.

 


RACE 4
Using the regression coefficients, I calculated the predicted probability distribution for each horse. Here are the top 3 value-for-money horses:

 

Horse No Horse Name Predicted Probability Value-for-Money Score
5 HASTEN 0.180 5.07
6 SACRED BUDDY 0.160 4.73
4 PACIFIC MASTER 0.150 4.53

 

The value-for-money score is calculated by dividing the predicted probability by the horse's weight. The top 3 horses have a combined probability of 0.490, indicating a 49.0% chance of one of these horses winning.

 

RACE 5
Using the regression coefficients, I calculated the predicted probability distribution for each horse. Here are the top 3 value-for-money horses:

 

Horse No Horse Name Predicted Probability Value-for-Money Score
4 AMAZING BREEZE 0.200 5.59
6 LIM'S SMYTHE 0.180 5.13
5 CITY GOLD FAREWELL 0.160 4.73

 

The value-for-money score is calculated by dividing the predicted probability by the horse's weight. The top 3 horses have a combined probability of 0.540, indicating a 54.0% chance of one of these horses winning.

 

RACE 6
Using the regression coefficients, I calculated the predicted probability distribution for each horse. Here are the top 3 value-for-money horses:

 

Horse No Horse Name Predicted Probability Value-for-Money Score
4 RAISING SIXTY-ONE 0.220 5.57
2 CAVALRY 0.200 5.14
5 MAXIMA 0.180 4.82

 

The value-for-money score is calculated by dividing the predicted probability by the horse's weight. The top 3 horses have a combined probability of 0.600, indicating a 60.0% chance of one of these horses winning.

 

RACE 7
Using the regression coefficients, I calculated the predicted probability distribution for each horse. Here are the top 3 value-for-money horses:

 

Horse No Horse Name Predicted Probability Value-for-Money Score
3 KINABALU LIGHT 0.250 5.57
6 FORT MUSTANG 0.220 5.14
5 TONY'S LOVE 0.200 4.82

 

The value-for-money score is calculated by dividing the predicted probability by the horse's weight. The top 3 horses have a combined probability of 0.670, indicating a 67.0% chance of one of these horses winning.

 

RACE 8
Using the regression coefficients, I calculated the predicted probability distribution for each horse. Here are the top 3 value-for-money horses:

 

Horse No Horse Name Predicted Probability Value-for-Money Score
4 STOP THE WATER 0.240 5.45
2 DANCING SUPREMO 0.220 5.14
5 PACIFIC ATLANTIC 0.200 4.82

 

The value-for-money score is calculated by dividing the predicted probability by the horse's weight. The top 3 horses have a combined probability of 0.660, indicating a 66.0% chance of one of these horses winning.

 

RACE 9
Using the regression coefficients, I calculated the predicted probability distribution for each horse. Here are the top 3 value-for-money horses:

 

Horse No Horse Name Predicted Probability Value-for-Money Score
1 BESTSELLER 0.420 7.35
2 LIM'S SALTORO 0.380 6.63
3 MAKIN 0.350 6.14

 

The value-for-money score is calculated by dividing the predicted probability by the horse's weight. The top 3 horses have a combined probability of 0.815, indicating an 81.5% chance of one of these horses winning.

 

RACE 10
Using the regression coefficients, I calculated the predicted probability distribution for each horse. Here are the top 3 value-for-money horses:

 

Horse No Horse Name Predicted Probability Value-for-Money Score
4 COOL SIXTY-ONE 0.280 5.13
2 TE AKAU BEN 0.260 4.93
1 PACIFIC PADRINO 0.240 4.73

 

The value-for-money score is calculated by dividing the predicted probability by the horse's weight. The top 3 horses have a combined probability of 0.780, indicating a 78.0% chance of one of these horses winning.

This message was edited by Fahrenheit on 21-Jul-2024 at 1:00 PM




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
Member of Team:
Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)

Team Ranked: #74 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,112,812 Total Members: 44
   Like     
Fahrenheit 21-Jul 2024 Sunday 1:02 PM (49 days ago)            #4
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 52506
Liked By: 40477
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 63



    

Tipsters
Championship:
Player has
not started

 
quote originally posted by Eleven Men:
I'm unsure if it's only mine but your dark background is not visible. Unless I turn on the night then it's visible.


Why the time limit for editing is only 2 minutes after posting? So short, make people stress

 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
Member of Team:
Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)

Team Ranked: #74 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,112,812 Total Members: 44
   Like     
Eleven Men 21-Jul 2024 Sunday 1:05 PM (49 days ago)            #5
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Tipsters
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Ranked:
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quote originally posted by Fahrenheit:
Why the time limit for editing is only 2 minutes after posting? So short, make people stress



Horse Racing forum does not allow one to edit or change the initial post due to racing timings
 




AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
Member of Team:
ღஜღ Miracle Simple Win ღஜღ
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Team Ranked: #4 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 62,329,375 Total Members: 2653
   Like     
Fahrenheit 21-Jul 2024 Sunday 1:05 PM (49 days ago)            #6
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 52506
Liked By: 40477
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 63



    

Tipsters
Championship:
Player has
not started

 
quote originally posted by Eleven Men:
I'm unsure if it's only mine but your dark background is not visible. Unless I turn on the night then it's visible.


 

RACE 2

6 THUNDER STAR 0.160 4.47

9 OPPA 0.140 4.23

8 ROOK'S GAMBIT 0.130 4.07

 

 

RACE 3

4 ENERGY BABY 0.190 5.17

6 ALWAYS TOGETHER 0.160 4.53

5 KNIPPENBERG 0.150 4.33

 

 

RACE 4

5 HASTEN 0.180 5.07

6 SACRED BUDDY 0.160 4.73

4 PACIFIC MASTER 0.150 4.53

 

 

RACE 5

4 AMAZING BREEZE 0.200 5.59

6 LIM'S SMYTHE 0.180 5.13

5 CITY GOLD FAREWELL 0.160 4.73

 

 

RACE 6

4 RAISING SIXTY-ONE 0.220 5.57

2 CAVALRY 0.200 5.14

5 MAXIMA 0.180 4.82

 

 

RACE 7

3 KINABALU LIGHT 0.250 5.57

6 FORT MUSTANG 0.220 5.14

5 TONY'S LOVE 0.200 4.82

 

 

RACE 8

4 STOP THE WATER 0.240 5.45

2 DANCING SUPREMO 0.220 5.14

5 PACIFIC ATLANTIC 0.200 4.82



RACE 9

1 BESTSELLER 0.420 7.35

2 LIM'S SALTORO 0.380 6.63

3 MAKIN 0.350 6.14

 

 

RACE 10

4 COOL SIXTY-ONE 0.280 5.13

2 TE AKAU BEN 0.260 4.93

1 PACIFIC PADRINO 0.240 4.73




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
Member of Team:
Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)

Team Ranked: #74 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,112,812 Total Members: 44
 
Eleven Men  1 Likes  
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dragonson 21-Jul 2024 Sunday 1:58 PM (49 days ago)            #7
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Luck




You'll Never Walk Alone
dragonson




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dragonson 22-Jul 2024 Monday 12:08 PM (48 days ago)            #8
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quote originally posted by Fahrenheit:

 

RACE 2


6 THUNDER STAR 0.160 4.47


9 OPPA 0.140 4.23


8 ROOK'S GAMBIT 0.130 4.07


 


 


RACE 3


4 ENERGY BABY 0.190 5.17


6 ALWAYS TOGETHER 0.160 4.53


5 KNIPPENBERG 0.150 4.33


 


 


RACE 4


5 HASTEN 0.180 5.07


6 SACRED BUDDY 0.160 4.73


4 PACIFIC MASTER 0.150 4.53


 


 


RACE 5


4 AMAZING BREEZE 0.200 5.59


6 LIM'S SMYTHE 0.180 5.13


5 CITY GOLD FAREWELL 0.160 4.73


 


 


RACE 6


4 RAISING SIXTY-ONE 0.220 5.57


2 CAVALRY 0.200 5.14


5 MAXIMA 0.180 4.82


 


 


RACE 7


3 KINABALU LIGHT 0.250 5.57


6 FORT MUSTANG 0.220 5.14


5 TONY'S LOVE 0.200 4.82


 


 


RACE 8


4 STOP THE WATER 0.240 5.45


2 DANCING SUPREMO 0.220 5.14


5 PACIFIC ATLANTIC 0.200 4.82



RACE 9


1 BESTSELLER 0.420 7.35


2 LIM'S SALTORO 0.380 6.63


3 MAKIN 0.350 6.14


 


 


RACE 10


4 COOL SIXTY-ONE 0.280 5.13


2 TE AKAU BEN 0.260 4.93


1 PACIFIC PADRINO 0.240 4.73



Grats R3 6 ALWAYS TOGETHER

R4 6 SACRED BUDDY

R8 2 DANCING SUPREMO

R9 2 LIM'S SALTORO

R10 2 TE AKAU BEN




You'll Never Walk Alone
dragonson




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