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Posted By Topic: Turning the table on the casino       - Views: 904
baccarat_lover1633 		06-Jun 2017 Tuesday 1:40 PM (2513 days ago)               #1
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  		We all know that on each deal, roughly, the probabilities of winning are 1/2 PLAYER (P) and 1/2 BANKER (B).

However, if, you bet 2 in a row following a certain pattern, ie., PP, PB, BP or BB, your probability of winning either on the first or second deal becomes 3/4, while the casino's probability of winning (or your probability of losing two in a row) becomes 1/4.

If you bet 3 in a row following one of the following patterns (PPP, PPB, PBP, PBB, BPP, BPB, BBP or BBB), your probability of winning on either the 1st, 2nd or 3rd deal becomes 7/8, while the casino's probability of winning (or your probability of losing three in a row) becomes 1/8.

If you bet 4 in a row following one of the following patterns (PPPP, PPPB, PPBP, PPBB, PBPP, PBPB, PBBP, PBBB, BPPP, BPPB, BPBP, BPBB, BBPP. BBPB, BBBP or BBBB), your probability of winning on the 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th deal becomes 15/16, while the casino's probability of winning (or your probability of losing four in a row) becomes 1/16.

If you combine this with one of the possible variations of progressive betting that can be accommodated by the minimum and maximum betting limits on the table you are playing on, you can make each deal pay, and not lose time when winning on the 2nd, 3rd or 4th deal.

For example, if you want to earn $100 per deal, you can use the following betting progression:

1st bet - $100 (if you win here, you net $100, or $100/deal)
2nd bet - $300 (if you win here, you net $200, or $100/deal)
3rd bet - $700 (if you win here, you net $300, or $100/deal)
4th bet - $1,500 (if you win here, you net $400, or $100/deal)
5th bet - $3,100 (if you win here, you net $500, or $100/deal])
For a 2-deal scheme, total capital is $400
For a 3-deal scheme, total capital is $1,100
For a 4-deal scheme, total capital is $2,600
For a 5-deal scheme, total capital is $5,700

There are other progressive betting schemes possible, and I am leaving it to the imagination of the reader to cook them up.

The only way for you to lose is for the casino to overcome your advantage in winning probability:

2-deal scheme - 1/4 vs 3/4
3-deal scheme - 1/8 vs 7/8
4-deal scheme - 1/16 vs 15/16
5-deal scheme - 1/32 vs 31/32

There is only one problem: the casino is always looking out for systematic bettors, i.e. card counters in blackjack, and if you do this, you will be considered a systematic bettor, and they may escort you out of the casino.

There are a number of ways though to run-around and confuse the casino intelligensia:

1. Use alternating/different schemes (2-deal, 3-deal, 4-deal, 5-deal) in a single visit
2. Do this using a team of two or three persons so the progressive betting becomes less obvious; if you do, avoid talking among you while inside the casino; do all your talking in the parking lot
3. Make sure you use various patterns in a single visit

There will be times that the casino might overcome the odds, but chances are it will not be from the first deal.

In the long run, this should prove lucrative!

GOOD LUCK!
 

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peacenjoy 		06-Jun 2017 Tuesday 11:35 PM (2513 days ago)            #2
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  		quote originally posted by baccarat_lover1633:
We all know that on each deal, roughly, the probabilities of winning are 1/2 PLAYER (P) and 1/2 BANKER (B).
However, if, you bet 2 in a row following a certain pattern, ie., PP, PB, BP or BB, your probability of winning either on the first or second deal becomes 3/4, while the casino's probability of winning (or your probability of losing two in a row) becomes 1/4.
If you bet 3 in a row following one of the following patterns (PPP, PPB, PBP, PBB, BPP, BPB, BBP or BBB), your probability of winning on either the 1st, 2nd or 3rd deal becomes 7/8, while the casino's probability of winning (or your probability of losing three in a row) becomes 1/8.
If you bet 4 in a row following one of the following patterns (PPPP, PPPB, PPBP, PPBB, PBPP, PBPB, PBBP, PBBB, BPPP, BPPB, BPBP, BPBB, BBPP. BBPB, BBBP or BBBB), your probability of winning on the 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th deal becomes 15/16, while the casino's probability of winning (or your probability of losing four in a row) becomes 1/16.
If you combine this with one of the possible variations of progressive betting that can be accommodated by the minimum and maximum betting limits on the table you are playing on, you can make each deal pay, and not lose time when winning on the 2nd, 3rd or 4th deal.
For example, if you want to earn $100 per deal, you can use the following betting progression:
1st bet - $100 (if you win here, you net $100, or $100/deal)
2nd bet - $300 (if you win here, you net $200, or $100/deal)
3rd bet - $700 (if you win here, you net $300, or $100/deal)
4th bet - $1,500 (if you win here, you net $400, or $100/deal)
5th bet - $3,100 (if you win here, you net $500, or $100/deal])
For a 2-deal scheme, total capital is $400
For a 3-deal scheme, total capital is $1,100
For a 4-deal scheme, total capital is $2,600
For a 5-deal scheme, total capital is $5,700
There are other progressive betting schemes possible, and I am leaving it to the imagination of the reader to cook them up.
The only way for you to lose is for the casino to overcome your advantage in winning probability:
2-deal scheme - 1/4 vs 3/4
3-deal scheme - 1/8 vs 7/8
4-deal scheme - 1/16 vs 15/16
5-deal scheme - 1/32 vs 31/32
There is only one problem: the casino is always looking out for systematic bettors, i.e. card counters in blackjack, and if you do this, you will be considered a systematic bettor, and they may escort you out of the casino.
There are a number of ways though to run-around and confuse the casino intelligensia:
1. Use alternating/different schemes (2-deal, 3-deal, 4-deal, 5-deal) in a single visit
2. Do this using a team of two or three persons so the progressive betting becomes less obvious; if you do, avoid talking among you while inside the casino; do all your talking in the parking lot
3. Make sure you use various patterns in a single visit
There will be times that the casino might overcome the odds, but chances are it will not be from the first deal.
In the long run, this should prove lucrative!
GOOD LUCK!
 


dear new registered old kaki,

sounds familiar

again,螳螂捕蝉黄雀在后
we have to constantly check out and react accordingly
there must be a time your suggested 2/3/4/5 deals scheme fail

anyway,good luck and happy winning




Good luck & cheerios!

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baccarat_lover1633 		07-Jun 2017 Wednesday 10:37 AM (2512 days ago)            #3
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  		quote originally posted by peacenjoy:


dear new registered old kaki,

sounds familiar

again,螳螂捕蝉黄雀在后
we have to constantly check out and react accordingly
there must be a time your suggested 2/3/4/5 deals scheme fail

anyway,good luck and happy winning

Dear peacenjoy,

Thanks for the very warm welcome to a newly registered old kaki.

Being a newbie here, I was hoping you can enlighten me on your comment that my post sounds familiar. Probably cite the thread where this scheme was previously discussed so I can refer to it?

Anyway, I did mention that the casino might sometimes overcome the tremendous odds against it (1/32 vs 31/32 for the 5-deal scheme), but say you are betting $400, $1,100 and $2,500 (total capital $4,000) on the 3-deal scheme, and targetting $1,000, what are the chances of the casino overcoming the odds (7/8 vs 1/8) over the maximum 5 deals (minimum 3) that you need to make the $1,000?

Lastly, I think it is quite rude to write something in Mandarin or in any other language in an English forum. Your tone was quite condescending enough.
 

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baccarat_lover1633 		07-Jun 2017 Wednesday 12:22 PM (2512 days ago)            #4
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  		Allow me to put the 3-deal scheme in a brighter perspective.

Say you are betting $400, $1,000 and $2,500 on the 1st, 2nd and 3rd deal, respectively.  Your total capital is $4,000, and you are targetting $1,000 each time (per visit to the casino).

Every time you choose a 3-deal pattern, you are choosing one from a possible eight patterns:
1 PPP      3 PBP     5 BPP     7 BBP
2 PPB     4 PBB     6 BPB     8 BBB

Since you cannot change the cards on the shoe, the result for the next 5 deals is already pre-destined.

Your aim every time you pick a pattern is not to choose the exact opposite of the pre-destined result from the point where you make the pick, and your chances of doing that every time is 7 out of 8.  Your chances of choosing the exact opposite is 1 out of 8.

For example, the pre-destined result for the next five deals is BPBPB:
If you manage to avoid the losing 3-deal pattern for 3 consecutive picks, you win $1,000 or more.

Following are the possible scenarios:

ONE PICK SCENARIO
1. On the 1st pick, the fatal choice is the 3rd (PBP) pattern.
2. If on your 1st pick, you chose the 4th (PBB) pattern, you win on the 3rd deal, and make $1,000.  You go home with $1,000 after one pick and 3 deals.

TWO PICKS SCENARIO
1. On the 1st pick, the fatal choice is the 3rd (PBP) pattern.

2a. If on your 1st pick, you chose either the 5th, 6th, 7th or 8th pattern, you win on the 1st deal, and make $400.
2b. On your 2nd pick, the fatal choice is the 6th (BPB) pattern.
2c1. If on your second pick, you chose either the 7th (BBP) or 8th (BBB) pattern, you win on the 2nd deal, and make $700, for a total of $1,100.  You go home with $1,100 after 2 picks and 3 deals.

2c2. If on your second pick, you chose 5th pattern (BPP), you win on the 3rd deal, and make $1,000, for a total of $1,400.  You go home with $1,400 after 2 picks and 4 deals.

3a. If on your 1st pick, you chose the 1st (PPP) or 2nd (PPB) pattern, you win on the second deal, and make $700.
3b. On your second pick, the fatal choice is the 3rd (PBP) pattern.

3c1.  If on your 2nd pick, you chose either the 5th (BPP), 6th (BPB), 7th (BBP) or 8th (BBB) pattern, you win on the 1st deal, and make $400, for a total of $1,100.  You go home with $1,100 after 2 picks and 3 deals.

3c2a.  If on your 2nd pick, you chose either the 1st or 2nd pattern, you win on the 2nd deal, and make another $700, for a total of $1,400.  You go home with $1,400 after 2 picks and 4 deals.

3c2b.  If on your 2nd pick, you chose the 4th (PBB) pattern, you win on the 3rd deal, and make $1,000, for a total of $1,700.  You go home with $1,700 after 2 picks and 5 deals.

THREE PICKS SCENARIO
1. On the 1st pick, the fatal choice is the 3rd (PBP) pattern.
2. If on your 1st pick, you chose either the 5th (BPP), 6th (BPB), 7th (BBP) or 8th (BBB) pattern, you win on the 1st deal, and make $400.
3. On the 2nd pick, the fatal choice is the 6th (BPB) pattern.
4. If on your 2nd pick, you chose either the 1st (PPP), 2nd (PPB), 3rd (PBP) or 4th (PBB) pattern, you win on the 1st deal, and make another $400, for a total of $800.
5. On the 3rd pick, the fatal choice is the 3rd (PBP) pattern.

6a. If on your 3rd pick, you chose either the 5th (BPP), 6th (BPB), 7th (BBP) or 8th (BBB) pattern, you win on the 1st deal, and make another $400, for a total of $1,200.  You go home with $1,200 after 3 picks and 3 deals.

6b. If on your 3rd pick, you chose either the 1st (PPP) or 2nd (PPB) pattern, you win on the 2nd deal, and make $700, for a total of $1,500.  You go home with $1,500 after 3 picks and 4 deals.

6c. If on your 3rd pick, you chose the 4th (PBB) pattern, you win on the 3rd deal, and win $1,000, for a total of $1,800.  You go home with $1,800 after 3 picks and 5 deals.

So, how do you like having the odds of 7/8 every time you make a pick rather than 1/2?
 

This message was edited by baccarat_lover1633 on 07-Jun-2017 @ 12:25 PM

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peacenjoy 		07-Jun 2017 Wednesday 3:25 PM (2512 days ago)            #5
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  		dear bro, what you will do if you hit the fatal pick? (losing 3deals consecutively)
im sure each of us has met those fatal picks
we can strategize, the house always reacts, is螳螂捕蝉黄雀在后
this is casino poker strategies and knowledge forum
happy winning
hope you laugh all the way to bank daily




Good luck & cheerios!

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baccarat_lover1633 		07-Jun 2017 Wednesday 4:45 PM (2512 days ago)            #6
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  		quote originally posted by peacenjoy:
dear bro, what you will do if you hit the fatal pick? (losing 3deals consecutively)
im sure each of us has met those fatal picks
we can strategize, the house always reacts, is螳螂捕蝉黄雀在后
this is casino poker strategies and knowledge forum
happy winning
hope you laugh all the way to bank daily

Dear peacenjoy,

I am sorry we started on a sour note, but I will appreciate it greatly if you can refrain from using Chinese characters when you reply to my posts.  It is not fair and it is not proper.  For all I know, you might already be cursing at me.

Anyway, back to your question.

As I have said, there will be times when the casino wins.  

But just as they say that in every deal, there is a 50-50 chance for both banker and player, in the 3-deal scheme, for every pick, there is a 7-1 chance for me, and I like my chances that way.  Of the 7 chances I have, 4 will pay $400 each, 2 will pay $700 each, and 1 will pay $1,000, for a total of $4,000.  If I pick the fatal choice, I lose $4,000.  Sounds fair enough, doesn't it?  I just traded the return for better chances.

But we can reduce the chances of picking the fatal choice even further if we do one or more of the following:

1. We wait and look for a table with a hot and lucky gunner, and we follow his bets every time.  If we like our chances in every deal when betting with a lucky gunner, how much more if we are betting that he is not going to lose 3 in a row?  The law of averages might catch up with us if we stay for the long haul, but remember, we will only stay for a maximum of 3 picks and 5 deals every visit.

2. We follow the other advice given by seasoned baccarat players like you in the forum in choosing the pattern to follow.  My scheme and their advice are not mutually exclusive.  One can choose to adopt and follow both.

As long as we can reduce the ratio of fatal choice to less than 1 in 4 visits, we are on the black.
 

This message was edited by baccarat_lover1633 on 07-Jun-2017 @ 4:49 PM

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